When will the Vols next...

When will the Vols beat Bama, Florida, and Georgia all in the same season?

  • Next year (2020)

  • Year after (2021)

  • Some time in the 2022-2025 period

  • 2026-2030

  • 2030-2040

  • 2040-2050

  • 2050-2100

  • Not in any of our lifetimes

  • Never


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#1

VFL-82-JP

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#1
...beat Alabama, Florida, and Georgia -- all in the same year?

I don't expect any of us to "get this right." It is really just a gauge of how optimistic or pessimistic we are on the future of the program.

So make your choice, it's anonymous, and we'll see how we look as a community.

Go Vols!


p.s. There are at least a dozen Gators, Dawgs, 'Cats, and Elephants on these boards (a few pretending to be Vols), the vast majority of whom will naturally want us never to be back...so I'm personally cutting in half the number of "Not in our lifetime" and "Never" votes as cases of visitor agitation. Don't think those add to an accurate reflection of the frame of mind of real Vols fans. Can't ignore them entirely, of course, we do have our Beardeds, and such. :)

p.p.s. This could change as more people vote, but right now if you turn the poll on its side, it looks like we're collectively giving a big ole middle finger to our SEC opponents in the 2022-2025 time frame. Heh.
 
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#11

UTK

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#11
At this point I'd just take 1 out of the 3. 2016 was the first time in forever we beat UGA and UF in the same season, we haven't beat Bama since 2006. I hope within the next 5 years but if we can just get to a point where we beat 2 out of 3 most years, I won't complain.
 
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#17

VFL-82-JP

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#17
Tennessee has done this twice since 1990 (1998 and 2004)

So, it’s a rare deal even when things are good
Question is not, "how often will this happen"?

Question is, when will it happen next?

Trying to apply stats to answer that type of question is problematic.

For instance, using your baseline metric (did it twice in the 15 years from 1990-2004), one could say that the average during "good years" is once every 7.5 years. Which means we are well overdue, and as soon as another "good year" comes we ought to get a triple-win combo very quickly.*

See? Stats are hard to apply to this kind of question, just like you can't use them to predict the next earthquake or asteroid impact or mega-volcano eruption. :) The Yellowstone mega-volcano tends to blow once every 650,000 years or so, and it has been 630,000 years since it's last big eruption. That does not mean that we can predict it's going to happen in the next 20,000 years...or the next 500,000 years, even. Another example: if it has been 99 years since your town had its last "hundred year flood," that doesn't mean you will see a flood that level next year. Heh.


* p.s.: interestingly, if you took straight even-odds to this problem, you'd end up with a prediction that the combination would happen once every 8 years. It goes like this: 50/50 chance of beating Gators times 50/50 chance of beating Dawgs, times 50/50 chance of beating Bama == .5 * .5 * .5 == .125 = 12.5%, or 1 in 8.

So really, the twice in 7.5 years average you found from 1990 to 2004 is really just (roughly) even odds playing out over time. We actually beat those odds by just a bit during that time window.

But yeah, none of this helps predict when we can expect it to happen next. That's more a question of optimism in the direction of our program than anything else. Just as the poll was intended. *thumbsup*
 
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#18

arkyvol

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#18
Tennessee is a solid, traditional program which has been plagued over the last decade by bad coaches and bad A.D.s. Even worse has been the media fed libel that U.T. is not a destination for a good coach. That's going to end sometime.
 
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#19

99gator

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#19
Question is not, "how often will this happen"?

Question is, when will it happen next?

Trying to apply stats to answer that type of question is problematic.

For instance, using your baseline metric (did it twice in the 15 years from 1990-2004), one could say that the average during "good years" is once every 7.5 years. Which means we are well overdue, and as soon as another "good year" comes we ought to get a triple-win combo very quickly.*

See? Stats are hard to apply to this kind of question, just like you can't use them to predict the next earthquake or asteroid impact or mega-volcano eruption. :) The Yellowstone mega-volcano tends to blow once every 650,000 years or so, and it has been 630,000 years since it's last big eruption. That does not mean that we can predict it's going to happen in the next 20,000 years...or the next 500,000 years, even. Another example: if it has been 99 years since your town had its last "hundred year flood," that doesn't mean you will see a flood that level next year. Heh.


* p.s.: interestingly, if you took straight even-odds to this problem, you'd end up with a prediction that the combination would happen once every 8 years. It goes like this: 50/50 chance of beating Gators times 50/50 chance of beating Dawgs, times 50/50 chance of beating Bama == .5 * .5 * .5 == .125 = 12.5%, or 1 in 8.

So really, the twice in 7.5 years average you found from 1990 to 2004 is really just (roughly) even odds playing out over time. We actually beat those odds by just a bit during that time window.

But yeah, none of this helps predict when we can expect it to happen next. That's more a question of optimism in the direction of our program than anything else. Just as the poll was intended. *thumbsup*
That’s cool.

The only thing I was trying to say is the program can “be back” without that necessarily happening.

In 1997, Tennessee was the SEC champion and played #1 Nebraska with a chance for a national title, but did not beat those 3 in the same season.
 
#20

Iam4utalways

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#20
I’m glad we get our shot at each one of them every year. CJP and staff might just pull it off this year. That’s what I expect. We’ll see how it turns out over the next few months.
 

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