What will be the X factor against Michigan?

[Monkey Wrench]

Defend the 3. Defend the 3. Defend the 3.

DANG straight.

the team that liveth by the 3, more than likely will dieth by it

 

[orangelo]

J Rich vs Stauskas is the X factor. If J Rich can lock down Stauskas and cancel him out it means a lot of misses, and we know who is pulling those down.

 

[olbemw7]

I know, cheesy title. But I really felt when we played Florida in the SEC tourney that J Rich's offense was/would've been the X factor. They doubled Stokes and McRae and forced J Rich to beat them, and he did not. He has been beating teams with his offense in the tourney.

Against UM, I think Barton's 3-point shooting will be the X factor. Because of the attention we command down low, with McRae, and the emergence of J Rich, Barton gets a lot of wide open 3s. I know people don't like watching him shoot, but if he's knocking them down then I think this game is ours, with our advantage down low.

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that Josh Richardson's offense (season avg 10.1 ppg) is the most important factor in this game.

When Josh scores more than 15 pts in a game, Tennessee is 7-1 (0.875 winning %) with the only loss being to Missouri 70-75. He's scored over 15 pts in each of the 3 NCAAt games. He scored 20 in our 35 pt beatdown against Virginia.

UT vs Morehead St 82-67
UT vs Virginia 87-52
UT vs Auburn 78-67
UT vs Ole Miss 86-70
UT vs Missouri 70-75
UT vs Iowa 78-65
UT vs UMass 86-67
UT vs Mercer 83-63

In the above games when Josh scored above 15, he averaged 18.5 ppg. As a team in those games, Tennessee averaged 81.3 pts while the opponent averaged 65.8 pts (margin of +15.5).

On the other hand, when Josh scores less than 15 pts, Tennessee is 17-11 (0.607 winning %).

When he scores below 15, he averages 7.8 ppg. As a team in those games, Tennessee averaged 69.7 pts while the opponent averaged 60.1 pts (margin of +9.6).

Yes, his defense is also important, but he brings that intensity every game. His offensive contribution is less consistent... just like Tennessee in general has been pretty good, but inconsistent this year.

When JRich plays his average offensive game, we are a pretty solid team.

But it's when JRich brings it on O that we become a dominant team.