What can we learn from November blowouts?

#1
RetroVol

RetroVol

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#1
We're going to play a re-match with Coppin State on Nov. 5, but on the road. As I've described in the AI thread, I've been working with Codex to develop a better format for the game thread starters for next season. But, in the course of that, I got something about the pre-season blowouts in 24-25 and 25-26 that seems right to me. As I read this, Kim-Ball has to be explosive offensively to win. It's not a defensive system.

Thoughts? Arguments? Divergent opinions?

The following is from Codex:

Using the local Tennessee stats archive and defining “clearly outmatched pre-SEC” as pre-conference games Tennessee won by 40+:

Metric2024-252025-26
Games65
Avg Tennessee points108.094.2
100+ point games5 of 61 of 5
Avg margin+54.2+52.8
Avg FGA83.772.0
Avg 3PA40.040.4

That supports your concern. The better 2024-25 team was creating far more total shot volume in these games. The 2025-26 team had similar blowout margins because the defense smothered weak opponents, but the offense was much less explosive.
 
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#2
#2
What I notice is that Kim was saying from the summer of 2025 that she didn't have the shooters. She tried to adjust, to compensate, to go to a "Plan B," but it didn't work. Compared to 24-25, she's missing a bit in height, but she's got tons of shooters. We'll see.
 
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#3
#3
RetroVol said:
We're going to play a re-match with Coppin State on Nov. 5, but on the road. As I've described in the AI thread, I've been working with Codex to develop a better format for the game thread starters for next season. But, in the course of that, I got something about the pre-season blowouts in 24-25 and 25-26 that seems right to me. As I read this, Kim-Ball has to be explosive offensively to win. It's not a defensive system.

Thoughts? Arguments? Divergent opinions?

The following is from Codex:

Using the local Tennessee stats archive and defining “clearly outmatched pre-SEC” as pre-conference games Tennessee won by 40+:

Metric2024-252025-26
Games65
Avg Tennessee points108.094.2
100+ point games5 of 61 of 5
Avg margin+54.2+52.8
Avg FGA83.772.0
Avg 3PA40.040.4

That supports your concern. The better 2024-25 team was creating far more total shot volume in these games. The 2025-26 team had similar blowout margins because the defense smothered weak opponents, but the offense was much less explosive.
Click to expand...
Love what you bring to the forum, RetroVol! And so generous of you to mentor young Codex. ;)

My first thought, looking at the 11.7 fewer FG attempts in last season's blowouts, was to wonder if that was due to more turnovers. We know that proved to be a factor throughout the season. I wonder if it was already evident early on?
 
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#4
#4
RetroVol said:
We're going to play a re-match with Coppin State on Nov. 5, but on the road. As I've described in the AI thread, I've been working with Codex to develop a better format for the game thread starters for next season. But, in the course of that, I got something about the pre-season blowouts in 24-25 and 25-26 that seems right to me. As I read this, Kim-Ball has to be explosive offensively to win. It's not a defensive system.

Thoughts? Arguments? Divergent opinions?
Click to expand...
I'll take a poke at that one. And it may just be semantics.

When CKC first arrived, she said that the system depended on having more shot attempts than their opponents, based on more possessions--and those to be produced mainly by defensive turnovers (press) and offensive rebounds.

I remember seeing the postgame presser after winning the 2022 Natty at Glenville State, and IIRC they had their worst shooting percentage of any game that season, but they also took like 20 more shots [ 🤔...or did she say possessions? ] , so that they still outscored their opponent.
 
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#5
#5
BruisedOrange said:
Love what you bring to the forum, RetroVol! And so generous of you to mentor young Codex. ;)

My first thought, looking at the 11.7 fewer FG attempts in last season's blowouts, was to wonder if that was due to more turnovers. We know that proved to be a factor throughout the season. I wonder if it was already evident early on?
Click to expand...
Had to be the to's. Last seasons team was the worst passing and dribbling team I have ever seen. They were unwatchable at times.
 
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#6
#6
Explosive offense is often predicated on tough defense of the whole court. If you can press effectively, chances for creating turnovers go way up. It also takes incredible conditioning to run the whole court for the entire game. Most teams can't do it, so if yours can, and you can keep the game close through the first half, the other team starts to wear down quickly, giving you a much better chance to pull away.
 
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