We are reaping what we have sown

#1

lawgator1

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#1
This may surprise some of you, but I really don't blame Bush or the Republicans for the current economic mess. I don't think that what we are seeing is any one administration or party's fault. Not the Dems' fault, not the Republicans' fault.

I think our nation has come to the economic point we are for several reasons that have to do with our national character. And they are things we need to change.

1) We are too service-based an economy. I always lament to people that no one I know makes anything. No one I know makes furniture, or lamp posts, or widgets. All my friends have service jobs, whether it be as lawyers or restaurant workers, or teachers, or bankers or what have you. Don't get me wrong -- we need all those things -- but it worries me long-term that we are a national economy built on two things: consumers and transaction costs.

2) Our government does not save. In fact, not only does it not save, it spends like a drunken sailor, who thinks he has 24 hours to live, in a Taiwanese prostitute house that doubles as a casino. We need someone to step up to the plate and get us back to a surplus situation.

3) The citizenry does not save. I do think a lot of us do better when it comes to 401ks and IRAs than, say, 20 years ago. But we still live way too much in debt in the here and now. And when things turn south as they are now, and people lose jobs and otherwise have less discretionary income for things costing more and more, we reap what we sow. I, too, am guilty of this.

I hope that we weather this storm, but long-term I think the nation needs to become much more fiscally conservative, both in terms of our own households and the national treasury.
 
#2
#2
Those of us who are fiscally conservative, will end up paying for those who aren't. Thus we all lose. Welcome to a brave new world.
 
#4
#4
1) that is the natural progression of being a first world country. being a service country rather than a manufacturing country is why we have the greatest standard of living in the world.

2) our dept as a % of GDP is among the lowest of any country in the world. check out france and japan if you want to see drunken sailor spending.

3) our supposed negative saving rate does not take into account 401k savings and home ownership. include those and we really don't trail the rest of the world.
 
#6
#6
1) that is the natural progression of being a first world country. being a service country rather than a manufacturing country is why we have the greatest standard of living in the world.

2) our dept as a % of GDP is among the lowest of any country in the world. check out france and japan if you want to see drunken sailor spending.

3) our supposed negative saving rate does not take into account 401k savings and home ownership. include those and we really don't trail the rest of the world.


I love when guys like you and BPV knock that gator down! :)
 
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#7
#7
Gloom, despair and agony on me
Deep dark depression, excessive misery
If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all
Gloom, despair and agony on me
 
#8
#8
i'm working on saving as much as possible. i don't ever want to be broke, i'd like to live comfy so i'm saving. nice amount in savings, have my 401k, and bout to throw some money into a cd.
 
#10
#10
1) that is the natural progression of being a first world country. being a service country rather than a manufacturing country is why we have the greatest standard of living in the world.

2) our dept as a % of GDP is among the lowest of any country in the world. check out france and japan if you want to see drunken sailor spending.

3) our supposed negative saving rate does not take into account 401k savings and home ownership. include those and we really don't trail the rest of the world.

Gloom, despair and agony on me
Deep dark depression, excessive misery
If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all
Gloom, despair and agony on me


So things are really okay? The increase in crime in Orlando is because its a hot summer? The largest bank to fail in 40 years, that's just a gltich? The lowest price of a shareof GM in 30 years, no biggie?
 
#13
#13
So things are really okay? The increase in crime in Orlando is because its a hot summer? The largest bank to fail in 40 years, that's just a gltich? The lowest price of a shareof GM in 30 years, no biggie?

...
 
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#16
#16
So things are really okay? The increase in crime in Orlando is because its a hot summer? The largest bank to fail in 40 years, that's just a gltich? The lowest price of a shareof GM in 30 years, no biggie?

Times may be tough for a while but that doesn't prove that your 3 point theory is the underlying cause (for example moving to a service based economy - consumption going down would affect both manufactured products and services and it's easier to redeploy service assets (predominantly people) vs. manufacturing assets (capital equipment) in times of transition).

My HeeHaw philosophy comes from your statement about "hoping" we survive the conditions. Of course we will. Things have been worse.
 
#17
#17
Monteray....I gave another and then plbpblblbpbp you were gone.

Please keep your HeeHaw songs straight!

You took off your pegleg, your curlers and glasses
You were spread all over the place
I wouldn't have run, if you hadn't scared me
You look like you had just wrassled a bear.

Where o where are you tonight
Why did you leave me here all alone
I searched the world over till I thought I found true love
But you met another and plbpblblbpbp you were gone
 
#18
#18
So things are really okay? The increase in crime in Orlando is because its a hot summer? The largest bank to fail in 40 years, that's just a gltich? The lowest price of a shareof GM in 30 years, no biggie?
Do you have any idea why the bank failed?

I'd say the increased crime in Orlando is due nearly 100% to the price of fuel, which can be tied back to the cheap, cheap, cheap dollar and lack of alternative investments today.

The cheap dollar is cheap for several reasons, one of which was Greenspan's prolonged run in the negative real rate territory. That cheap dollar, absurdly low interest rates and massive capital flows overboiled the real estate market. That overheated real estate market is murdering banks today because real estate is their preferred loan type. The correction in that market is certainly going to see banks gobbled up, especially those that were too aggressive in their lending practices. In fact, the Fed is today leading the charge toward large scale bank consolidation by forcing large numbers of portfolio writedowns that are probably over the top.
 
#20
#20
Do you have any idea why the bank failed?

I'd say the increased crime in Orlando is due nearly 100% to the price of fuel, which can be tied back to the cheap, cheap, cheap dollar and lack of alternative investments today.

The cheap dollar is cheap for several reasons, one of which was Greenspan's prolonged run in the negative real rate territory. That cheap dollar, absurdly low interest rates and massive capital flows overboiled the real estate market. That overheated real estate market is murdering banks today because real estate is their preferred loan type. The correction in that market is certainly going to see banks gobbled up, especially those that were too aggressive in their lending practices. In fact, the Fed is today leading the charge toward large scale bank consolidation by forcing large numbers of portfolio writedowns that are probably over the top.

Spot on..
 
#21
#21
Do you have any idea why the bank failed?

I'd say the increased crime in Orlando is due nearly 100% to the price of fuel, which can be tied back to the cheap, cheap, cheap dollar and lack of alternative investments today.

The cheap dollar is cheap for several reasons, one of which was Greenspan's prolonged run in the negative real rate territory. That cheap dollar, absurdly low interest rates and massive capital flows overboiled the real estate market. That overheated real estate market is murdering banks today because real estate is their preferred loan type. The correction in that market is certainly going to see banks gobbled up, especially those that were too aggressive in their lending practices. In fact, the Fed is today leading the charge toward large scale bank consolidation by forcing large numbers of portfolio writedowns that are probably over the top.


I don't disagree with this, but do you not think that we (both nationally and individually as consumers) save too little relative to spending too much?
 
#22
#22
I don't disagree with this, but do you not think that we (both nationally and individually as consumers) save too little relative to spending too much?

I agree that alot of people do not save the way they should and live paycheck to pay check. But to say something about the American Economy, we are a nation of givers too, Dave Ramsey said the other day that as a nation we gave into the Trillions anually, and from the stats he said most of that giving is done by folks that make below the $100K mark. And I am a realtor so here is my view on the real estate market, it is a needed correction, it got way to "hot" for a while especially in the "big markets". Values were going up entirely too fast and people were paying the prices, alot of folks got home loans that really should not have qualified and would not qualify today. Foreclosures shot up and are bring home values down to a level where they need to be anyways. The market will take a little while to correct itself but all in all things are still selling and buyers are still buying, it has just turned from a sellers market to a buyers and will flip again in about 5-6 years once inventories straighten out and it has been proven that in a buyers market the economy just putts along but in a sellers market it booms. The rule of thumb is that is flows in 6 year spans but the last good wave lasted longer than that so the correction must be made and this will weed alot of realtors, builders from the markets which is OK with me. But we will survive and it will turn around and there will be milk in fridge through good and bad and life goes on, just my 2 cents anyways...
 
#23
#23
I don't disagree with this, but do you not think that we (both nationally and individually as consumers) save too little relative to spending too much?
back when savings was a huge driver of capital investment, this theory worked. Lack of savings no longer means lack of investment capital for business. Today savings is calculated entirely differently (as droski pointed out) and investment capital is available in droves to solid ideas or operations due to our incredible capital markets and risk tolerance.
 
#25
#25
So things are really okay? The increase in crime in Orlando is because its a hot summer? The largest bank to fail in 40 years, that's just a gltich? The lowest price of a shareof GM in 30 years, no biggie?

s- hits the fan every couple of years. the dotcom bust, savings and loan crisis, russian debt crisis, inflation at 10% in the early 80s, airlines going bancrupt, etc etc. this crisis is no worse than any other. it will pass and the economy will move on.
 

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