War in Ukraine

#31,853
#31,853
Rasputin_Vol said:
Not tongue tied. I just wanted to quote it before you had a chance to think about it and change the wording.
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It’s exactly what I’ve said several times on here. But make sure you understand what I’m saying. We shouldn’t be telling a country they can’t have nukes that is their own damn business. That isn’t equivalent to trying to slow down idiot regimes like North Korea or Iran. It’s their choice. And it’s our choice on how we react which will likely include economic actions against them.

Telling someone they can’t have something isn’t a valid defense. Having the means to thwart them if they use it is the only valid defense. And no this provides no endorsement for your man crush Pootin if/when he finally takes his special military operation nuclear.
 
#31,854
#31,854
NorthDallas40 said:
It’s exactly what I’ve said several times on here. But make sure you understand what I’m saying. We shouldn’t be telling a country they can’t have nukes that is their own damn business. That isn’t equivalent to trying to slow down idiot regimes like North Korea or Iran. It’s their choice. And it’s our choice on how we react which will likely include economic actions against them.

Telling someone they can’t have something isn’t a valid defense. Having the means to thwart them if they use it is the only valid defense. And no this provides no endorsement for your man crush Pootin if/when he finally takes his special military operation nuclear.
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Sanctions???
 
#31,855
#31,855
Rasputin_Vol said:
Sanctions???
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Sure. In the absence of actual “special military operations” economic actions of which sanctions are part of the kit are really the only option if you want to try to dissuade them. Again you’re already trying to twist it around Moe. We have no business dictating what a country can or can’t do with their own resources. But we can respond in a negative fashion.
 
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#31,856
#31,856
NorthDallas40 said:
Sure. In the absence of actual “special military operations” economic actions of which sanctions are part of the kit are really the only option if you want to try to dissuade them. Again you’re already trying to twist it around Moe. We have no business dictating what a country can or can’t do with their own resources. But we can respond in a negative fashion.
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Have sanctions done anything to Cuba, North Korea or Iran?
 
#31,857
#31,857
Rasputin_Vol said:
Have sanctions done anything to Cuba, North Korea or Iran?
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Sure. Again slowed them down. And when you get enough countries sanctioning an entity you can destroy them economically like your man crush is gonna find out. Yes yes we know TODAY they haven’t achieved their goal but once no one wants their currency or their oil and they’re isolated then they are screwed. Check that they are a new territory for Xi as he’ll be happy to rebuild them and prop them up for a price.
 
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#31,858
#31,858
marcusluvsvols said:
Cozumel is my favorite vacation spot i have ever been. Much better than Virgin islands etc. You can walk out to chest deep in clear blue water and see the coral reef replete with every kind of brightly colored tropical fish you can buy at a fish store. Beer and food are cheap and the people are super friendly. Closest to Paradise i have ever been
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Bahamas for me.
 
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#31,859
#31,859
NorthDallas40 said:
Sure. Again slowed them down. And when you get enough countries sanctioning an entity you can destroy them economically like your man crush is gonna find out. Yes yes we know TODAY they haven’t achieved their goal but once no one wants their currency or their oil and they’re isolated then they are screwed. Check that they are a new territory for Xi as he’ll be happy to rebuild them and prop them up for a price.
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You destroy their economies and make the lives of the people that live there miserable, but you don't punish the regimes that run the country. So you just punish the people.
 
#31,860
#31,860
Rasputin_Vol said:
You destroy their economies and make the lives of the people that live there miserable, but you don't punish the regimes that run the country. So you just punish the people.
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Ok. And that’s exactly what is coming to Russia. Well I guess if they wanted to revisit the good ole days of the USSR they’re gonna get their wish!
 
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#31,863
#31,863
Rasputin_Vol said:
And that is not what I am suggesting. I'm simply illustrating that Kyiv and Lviv are relatively busy places for a country that the Russians have allegedly turned to rubble.
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Thats because Russia made it to Kyiv, got their asses kicked, then retreated. They never even sniffed Lviv because they knew their incompetence would get Poland into the war to really stomp their asses.
 
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#31,867
#31,867
IluvdoubleD's said:
Russia's media propaganda turns to 'spine-chilling rhetoric' to intimidate the West
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“The Kremlin has relatively few instruments to try and influence the West, and therefore it’s resorting to all this spine-chilling rhetoric as a means of attempted intimidation,” said Mark Galeotti, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank based in London. That leaves “the dark power of looking crazy and dangerous” as one of the very few tools at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s disposal, he said.
 
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#31,868
#31,868
Ukraine *may* be going for the jugular. Possibly trying to cut off 25% of the Russian troops in the entire theater.

Huge if true and successful.

"...Back to the Battle of the Izyum Salient, Russian telegram claims five Ukrainian brigades are moving in on Izyum from the north, looking to directly cut off supply lines to the bulk of the Russian forces in the salient. That would be the equivalent of 10-15 Russian BTGs which seems … fantastical. Given how well Ukraine has fought, Russians may be mythifying them so they seem 10 feet tall and three times their number. But for context, a Ukrainian brigade is around 1,600 troops and 200 armored vehicles. If these reports are correct, we’re talking about 1,000 armored vehicles, and a metric buttload of artillery, raining on Russian positions."
 
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#31,871
#31,871
#31,873
#31,873
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14
Kateryna Stepanenko and Frederick W. Kagan

May 14, 7:00 pm ET​

The Ukrainian destruction of significant elements of a Russian motorized rifle brigade that tried to cross a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River on May 11 has shocked prominent Russian milbloggers. Those bloggers have begun commenting on the incompetence of the Russian military to their hundreds of thousands of followers. The attempted river crossing showed a stunning lack of tactical sense as satellite images show (destroyed) Russian vehicles tightly bunched up at both ends of the (destroyed) bridge, clearly allowing Ukrainian artillerymen to kill hundreds and destroy scores of vehicles with concentrated strikes. The milbloggers who have hitherto been cheering on the Russian military criticized Russian armed forces leadership for failing to learn from experience in the war. They also expressed the concern that the constant pushing of Russia’s propaganda lines was making it hard for them to understand what was actually going on.

The effects of this change in tone and discourse by these milbloggers are uncertain but could be potent. People living under tightly censored regimes often trust individuals who seem to be independent of but generally aligned with the government more than the government line (even more than do citizens of democratic societies). The commentary by these widely read milbloggers may fuel burgeoning doubts in Russia about Russia’s prospects in this war and the competence of Russia’s military leaders (at least).

The destruction of the motorized rifle elements may also severely disrupt Russian efforts to isolate Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north. Russian troops made no attempts to advance in that area in the last 24 hours.

Russian forces continued operations to set conditions for the Battle of Severodonetsk from the south, however, advancing on the town of Zolote, roughly 30 km south of Severodonetsk. Russian troops likely seek to secure the highway north from Zolote to Severodonetsk for their advance, but they may also seek to cut the last highway linking Severodonetsk with the rest of Ukraine via Bakhmut. They could try to strike northwest across the country from their current positions to cut that highway closer to Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. The Russians are extremely unlikely to be able to take Bakhmut but they may be able to cut or render unusable the highway from Bakhmut to Severodonetsk if they can advance far enough along either of these possible routes.

Ukrainian forces will likely conduct counteroffensive operations to dislodge the Russians from around Izyum, according to Ukrainian officials. We have previously noted that Russian artillery fire directed to the west from around Izyum was more likely intended to disrupt such a counter-offensive than to set conditions for a Russian attack.

Russian forces continued their withdrawal from Kharkiv Oblast but will likely seek to hold a line east of Vovchansk to secure the ground line of communication (GLOC) running from Belgorod through Vovchansk to Izyum. The terrain in this area generally favors the defender, and the Russians have other GLOCs with which to supply Izyum, so the Ukrainians may not try to advance much farther to the east at this time.

Ukrainian defenders continued to fight in the Azovstal Plant in Mariupol despite horrific conditions and continued Russian attacks. The Ukrainian defense of Azovstal is still tying down Russian combat forces and inflicting casualties.

Key Takeaways
  • Catastrophic Russian losses in a failed river crossing and the military incompetence displayed in that crossing have shaken the confidence of some prominent Russian milbloggers.
  • Russian forces continue shaping operations for the Battle of Severodonetsk from the south even though those losses have at least temporarily disrupted their efforts from the north.
  • Ukrainian forces announced that they will conduct a counteroffensive around Izyum.
  • Russian forces continued to withdraw from northern Kharkiv Oblast, but will likely seek to hold a line defending their ground lines of communication from Belgorod via Vovchansk to Izyum.
 
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#31,875
#31,875
USF grad in TN said:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14
Kateryna Stepanenko and Frederick W. Kagan

May 14, 7:00 pm ET​

The Ukrainian destruction of significant elements of a Russian motorized rifle brigade that tried to cross a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River on May 11 has shocked prominent Russian milbloggers. Those bloggers have begun commenting on the incompetence of the Russian military to their hundreds of thousands of followers. The attempted river crossing showed a stunning lack of tactical sense as satellite images show (destroyed) Russian vehicles tightly bunched up at both ends of the (destroyed) bridge, clearly allowing Ukrainian artillerymen to kill hundreds and destroy scores of vehicles with concentrated strikes. The milbloggers who have hitherto been cheering on the Russian military criticized Russian armed forces leadership for failing to learn from experience in the war. They also expressed the concern that the constant pushing of Russia’s propaganda lines was making it hard for them to understand what was actually going on.

The effects of this change in tone and discourse by these milbloggers are uncertain but could be potent. People living under tightly censored regimes often trust individuals who seem to be independent of but generally aligned with the government more than the government line (even more than do citizens of democratic societies). The commentary by these widely read milbloggers may fuel burgeoning doubts in Russia about Russia’s prospects in this war and the competence of Russia’s military leaders (at least).

The destruction of the motorized rifle elements may also severely disrupt Russian efforts to isolate Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north. Russian troops made no attempts to advance in that area in the last 24 hours.

Russian forces continued operations to set conditions for the Battle of Severodonetsk from the south, however, advancing on the town of Zolote, roughly 30 km south of Severodonetsk. Russian troops likely seek to secure the highway north from Zolote to Severodonetsk for their advance, but they may also seek to cut the last highway linking Severodonetsk with the rest of Ukraine via Bakhmut. They could try to strike northwest across the country from their current positions to cut that highway closer to Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. The Russians are extremely unlikely to be able to take Bakhmut but they may be able to cut or render unusable the highway from Bakhmut to Severodonetsk if they can advance far enough along either of these possible routes.

Ukrainian forces will likely conduct counteroffensive operations to dislodge the Russians from around Izyum, according to Ukrainian officials. We have previously noted that Russian artillery fire directed to the west from around Izyum was more likely intended to disrupt such a counter-offensive than to set conditions for a Russian attack.

Russian forces continued their withdrawal from Kharkiv Oblast but will likely seek to hold a line east of Vovchansk to secure the ground line of communication (GLOC) running from Belgorod through Vovchansk to Izyum. The terrain in this area generally favors the defender, and the Russians have other GLOCs with which to supply Izyum, so the Ukrainians may not try to advance much farther to the east at this time.

Ukrainian defenders continued to fight in the Azovstal Plant in Mariupol despite horrific conditions and continued Russian attacks. The Ukrainian defense of Azovstal is still tying down Russian combat forces and inflicting casualties.

Key Takeaways
  • Catastrophic Russian losses in a failed river crossing and the military incompetence displayed in that crossing have shaken the confidence of some prominent Russian milbloggers.
  • Russian forces continue shaping operations for the Battle of Severodonetsk from the south even though those losses have at least temporarily disrupted their efforts from the north.
  • Ukrainian forces announced that they will conduct a counteroffensive around Izyum.
  • Russian forces continued to withdraw from northern Kharkiv Oblast, but will likely seek to hold a line defending their ground lines of communication from Belgorod via Vovchansk to Izyum.
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Frederick Kagan... no bias coming from him.
 
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