Vegas books seem to remain confident in Tennessee

[He_Made_It]

As of now, 76% of the public has bet on Florida to cover at +6/6.5. Seems like the sports bookies are looking to win big. Still time for the lines to move, though.

Public bets: NCAA College Football Public Betting Chart - See Who The Public is Betting
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Here are the historical probabilities of the favorites winning straight up and then beating the spread (Since '03).

6 point favorites win straight-up 69.8%
6.5 point favorites win 68.9%.

6 point favorites cover 54.9%
6.5 point favorites cover 51.0%

Results based on closing point spreads since '03: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/odds-history/results/

 

[bigorange]

It's interesting that 6 pt favorites are statistically more likely to win than 6.5 pt favorites

 

[jakez4ut]

they call it gambling for a reason.....

 

[volpreacher]

Doesn't matter who is favored. It doesn't matter who people pick to win. All that matters is who gives the best effort tomorrow and has the most points at the end of the game. Talk and predictions are just useless things. Go Big Orange! Best effort tomorrow for Volnation

 

[mrredskin]

All that matters is who gives the best effort tomorrow and has the most points at the end of the game.

what if we give the best effort but have fewer points??? :ermm:

 

[volfanhill]

what if we give the best effort but have fewer points??? :ermm:

Then it's a tie

 

[Orangedogsrule]

It's interesting that 6 pt favorites are statistically more likely to win than 6.5 pt favorites

Other than a PAT, the half point makes another possession necessary.

 

[alaVOL]

I just hope Vegas is right, because there is no way I'd put any serious money and give points for UT versus the Gators.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Well....Vegas has only been right about us once so far this season (Va Tech). The other lines were massively off. But, that's why gambling is gambling. It's meant to be risky. You never know what team will show up.

 

[SteensVol]

It's interesting that 6 pt favorites are statistically more likely to win than 6.5 pt favorites

That's because its hard to score that 1/2 of a point!
lol:

 

[SteensVol]

As of now, 76% of the public has bet on Florida to cover at +6/6.5. Seems like the sports bookies are looking to win big. Still time for the lines to move, though.

Public bets: NCAA College Football Public Betting Chart - See Who The Public is Betting
-----------------------------------------------------
Here are the historical probabilities of the favorites winning straight up and then beating the spread (Since '03).

6 point favorites win straight-up 69.8%
6.5 point favorites win 68.9%.

6 point favorites cover 54.9%
6.5 point favorites cover 51.0%

Results based on closing point spreads since '03: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/odds-history/results/

So 7 out 10 weekends with this odds - I should be happy!
I'll take that!
GBO!

 

[give_him 6]

11 straight losses and we are favored by 6 (or 6.5)? Somebody knows something.

 

[TNinSC]

And we've only covered one spread so far this season...

 

[RollerVol]

what if we give the best effort but have fewer points??? :ermm:

when I snap my fingers you will awaken...:good!:

GO VOLS!

 

[Ty4Vols]

And we've only covered one spread so far this season...

Florida is also 1-2 against the spread. Just saying.....

 

[TennJoe06]

The line just dropped to -4.5 on my site

 

[governmentmule]

Vegas doesn't care if you win or not,they just want you to bet ,and collect there money for the bet,they just move the line to get more people to bet

 

[Remy]

Last year at Wildfire in Henderson they had it right with us a 1 point dog and took everybody's money. Checked before I left town last Tuesday and they had not yet put up their CFB odds for the week. ^%$#

 

[TennJoe06]

Vegas doesn't care if you win or not,they just want you to bet ,and collect there money for the bet,they just move the line to get more people to bet

True. 68% betting on the Florida side. Let's get the win while they lose their money. Win Win.

 

[yoyoyoyo]

Well....Vegas has only been right about us once so far this season (Va Tech). The other lines were massively off. But, that's why gambling is gambling. It's meant to be risky. You never know what team will show up.

Vegas normally wins money on out of conference games because the public just bets on the big schools to cover and they don't usually. You would have to be insane to take UT last week. Look up how many people have lost money betting on Alabama the last few years for not covering.

 

[08Vol]

A lot of the people betting remember hearing the hype all off season, hearing we're 3-0, hearing hearing Del Rio is out. So Vegas set a high point spread. The betting has brought it down a lot.

 

[WishWeHadTee]

That's because its hard to score that 1/2 of a point!
lol:

No, he said "win," not "cover the spread."

 

[81Orange]

The line indicates the betters like us not the odds makers. Odds makers just want the same cash bet on both sides.
Which team would you like to coach in this game?

 

[Power T-Rev]

The line indicates the betters like us not the odds makers. Odds makers just want the same cash bet on both sides.
Which team would you like to coach in this game?

Serious question. If the betters liked us, then why is that number dropping?

 

[He_Made_It]

Serious question. If the betters liked us, then why is that number dropping?

Splitting the bet is the safest way to go for the bookies, but there is still an overwhelming number of betters taking florida.

The bookies are probably trying to get the betters a little closer to being split in case Tenn does not win (risk minimization).

I don't know what they're (bookies) thinking, but with 70% of betters taking florida, I have to wonder if they themselves are gambling on a Tenn win.