USC and UCLA to leave Pac 12 for Big Ten

[Delmar]

I think we are looking at the SEC plus two more teams and the Big 10 plus pick-a-number as the two super conferences with ESPN and Fox in a Texas Tornado Death Match to see which one can out-do the other. And a dozen other teams making obscene offers to get into those two leagues. The rest of what’s left of the Power 5 will be in some sort of minor league and vying for the crumbs that fall off the table. And the “Group of Five” may as well go 1-AA or give up football. Can you imagine what a Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Oregon (backed by Phil Knight) or Washington will offer to get in one of the two super conferences? Should be fun to watch.

 

[TrueOrange]

Eventually some of these super conferences will get rid of the rubbish teams.

Those teams are just going to be the ones that we see lost / left behind in the transition. You can already see it starting in the remainder of Big 12.

 

[Delmar]

I think we are looking at the SEC plus two more teams and the Big 10 plus pick-a-number as the two super conferences with ESPN and Fox in a Texas Tornado Death Match to see which one can out-do the other. And a dozen other teams making obscene offers to get into those two leagues. The rest of what’s left of the Power 5 will be in some sort of minor league and vying for the crumbs that fall off the table. And the “Group of Five” may as well go 1-AA or give up football. Can you imagine what a Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Oregon (backed by Phil Knight) or Washington will offer to get in one of the two super conferences? Should be fun to watch.

Not saying I like the way this is going. Just think it’s inevitable. At the end of the day it will be good for whatever teams end up in the super conferences but not good for the rest of college football. Add that to the transfer portal mess and paying the mercenaries and I think interest in the game will suffer. Time will tell.

 

[volbound1700]

You’re probably right, but I think the Big 10 getting a team in the heart of SEC country in Atlanta could matter. Duke and Northwestern could get along together. They already play every year it seems like . In terms of TV, Duke would bring basketball eyeballs, plus probably a bigger draw in the Northeast than Rutgers (not joking about this).

Neither brings a large fanbase or $$$$. Georgia Tech doesn't bring Atlanta. UGA dominates that city. It would be like saying the B1G would get Nashville by adding Vanderbilt.

B1G would be better off trying to get Miami or FSU out of Florida.

 

[Delmar]

I think one of those two will be available. Can’t see the SEC taking both Miami and FSU.

 

[volbound1700]

I think one of those two will be available. Can’t see the SEC taking both Miami and FSU.

I don't think Miami drives much value to the SEC but the SEC may grab them just to keep them out of the B1G's reach.

 

[Delmar]

I don't think Miami drives much value to the SEC but the SEC may grab them just to keep them out of the B1G's reach.

True. The SEC might not take either Miami or FSU since they have the Florida market already. Might lean more toward an East Coast presence. Clemson/Carolina/Virginia? Like I said, it’s going to be interesting to see how the dominoes fall.

 

[Rickyvol77]

If SEC decides to expand it will be

Notre dame (but no shot here IMO)

UNC/Duke/UVA/VaTech/NCState combo

Florida St,Clemson, Ga Tech, Kansas just if they want to fill in spots on the way to 24

There are people like WVU, Baylor, TCU, Okla St, Louisville etc that will beg their way but have no realistic shot at a major conference

 

[VOLnMiami]

I think one of those two will be available. Can’t see the SEC taking both Miami and FSU.

I doubt Florida will allow FSU to come to the SEC....Miami has zero value to the SEC...They have a history and trophies but they can't even fill up thier stadium which they don't even own...I worked security for them for years and its sad the turn outs they get even for the big games like FSU....Plus once again I doubt florida would allow that.

 

[VOLnMiami]

I think inevitably the SEC will get Clemson, FSU , Miami, UNC, NC ST, Virginia and Va. Tech and Louisville, Duke and Georgia Tech. The rest of the ACC will go to the big Ten. That would give the SEC 24 teams. The divisions will stay as the East and West with 12 teams in them and everyone will play 10 conference games.

No chance.

 

[Remy]

Can't say that's surprising. The Pac 12 needed to make a move to get to 14 or 16, and there simply weren't any programs worth getting.

This totally hoses Oregon.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Neither brings a large fanbase or $$$$. Georgia Tech doesn't bring Atlanta. UGA dominates that city. It would be like saying the B1G would get Nashville by adding Vanderbilt.

B1G would be better off trying to get Miami or FSU out of Florida.

I was more or less thinking about the fit Ga Tech would bring academically and the idea that they were in a huge city that would expand the TV footprint into the South. I mean it’s not like Rutgers moves the needle in the NYC market.

 

[OrangeAllDay]

This totally hoses Oregon.

Oregon and Washington are also seeing if they can join the big 10

 

[hUTch2002]

I think we are looking at the SEC plus two more teams and the Big 10 plus pick-a-number as the two super conferences with ESPN and Fox in a Texas Tornado Death Match to see which one can out-do the other. And a dozen other teams making obscene offers to get into those two leagues. The rest of what’s left of the Power 5 will be in some sort of minor league and vying for the crumbs that fall off the table. And the “Group of Five” may as well go 1-AA or give up football. Can you imagine what a Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Oregon (backed by Phil Knight) or Washington will offer to get in one of the two super conferences? Should be fun to watch.

So you think it’ll be that vs other teams trying to make a 3rd or maybe even 4th super conference? The thing is, the SEC and Big 10 might not want those other teams outside of ND and maybe Oregon (that’s still not a great market though). I think most of teams will have to band together like UCLA riding USC’s coattails.

I could see the Pac and Big 12s trying to form their own thing but then what about the ACC? I don’t know if there’s enough for them to grab to maintain Power 5 status, which is interesting because they’re the ones that really kicked all this off when they raided the Big East. Now if the ACC can make a power grab to get ND, and then find another good grab or two then maybe they’ll have something. UCF certainly makes sense but isn’t a splash grab. My prediction is the other P5 conferences try to make it 4 power conferences and it’ll work for a few years before eventually the Big 10 and SEC overtake them entirely in 10-12 years. NIL is the wild card though. If a team like Oregon rises to be one of the consistently top 5 teams that could give life to another conference.

Edit: One thing I feel confident about is this will finally force ND into a conference. The bidding war between the B10 and ACC will be epic!

 

[hUTch2002]

B1G will now control SoCal, Chicago, NYC, and DC markets. Their fans are very excited.

Why do you say that?

Most of the people in those places aren’t big college football fans, but forgetting that for a moment let’s look at the teams in the Big 10 that would draw those markets. ND would control Chicago way more than any other college team, including Illinois, Northwestern and any other Big 10 team. ND today is more of an ACC team than Big 10 team. Just look at this year’s schedule. There’s no Big 10 team that controls NYC market share and I can’t think of one that would garner attention in DC either. LA certainly now with USC and UCLA but that’s it. Again, those are pro towns anyway so even if the B10 did control them it likely wouldn’t matter.

Edit: I know you mean Maryland with DC and I assume Rutgers for NYC but those teams struggle to get any attention outside of alumni.

 

[hUTch2002]

College athletics has just gotten stupid. All of this conference realignment and conference expansion--creating super conferences that clearly have way too many member schools now and are rapidly losing the rivalries and regional bases that made them fun and credible. This is all being driven by greed, first, and then the fear of losing out--one conference getting smaller TV deals than another conferences, schools fearful of not making as much money as other schools and so leaving for bigger, more established conferences. As I say, it's all got rather absurd. Manifest greed: It's not pretty and it's ****** up college athletics.

Oddly enough it reminds me of the NBA. You know why people look back at the 80s and 90s as better basketball than the game today? It isn’t because the athletes are better. It’s because there was more loyalty and rivalry. Players stayed in places longer and teams stayed together better than they do today so the players learned to play together better and it helped developed deeper rivalries, like Lakers-Celtics and Bulls-Pistons. It appears college football is headed down the same path.

 

[hUTch2002]

Only about once per decade though.

Nope. UCLA too. Penn St isn’t exactly close either.

 

[hUTch2002]

Nebraska just said “hell yeah”. All USC & UCLA did was improve Big Ten recruiting in California.

Nebraska doesn’t even care about winning anymore as they’re aching that massive conference paycheck each year. B10 share is larger than SEC.

 

[UTwild82]

I'm just wondering where the B1G and SEC hit the point of diminishing returns.

Both conferences, based on everything I've read, are going to have TV deals in the ballpark of $100 million per team each year. That is for 16 teams.

So for each conference, to add 2 more teams, you would have to increase each teams TV money at least $10M per team (and I feel like that is a conservative estimate) and be worth $110M per year each. So each addition needs to pay for themselves and (at least) $5M (half of the $10M, again I think this is a conservative estimate) per team per year. That is $190M per year in value. Additions 19 and 20 would have to bring over $200M yearly in value. And it just goes up from there.

That limits who gets brought in. Notre Dame is clearly worth it. Washington and Oregon maybe are, but maybe they aren't. That's why the B1G held off adding them. Who in the ACC really brings that type of value?

This is why these notions of these conferences jumping right up to 24 teams each is fantasy.

 

[bamawriter]

I'm just wondering where the B1G and SEC hit the point of diminishing returns.

Both conferences, based on everything I've read, are going to have TV deals in the ballpark of $100 million per team each year. That is for 16 teams.

So for each conference, to add 2 more teams, you would have to increase each teams TV money at least $10M per team (and I feel like that is a conservative estimate) and be worth $110M per year each. So each addition needs to pay for themselves and (at least) $5M (half of the $10M, again I think this is a conservative estimate) per team per year. That is $190M per year in value. Additions 19 and 20 would have to bring over $200M yearly in value. And it just goes up from there.

That limits who gets brought in. Notre Dame is clearly worth it. Washington and Oregon maybe are, but maybe they aren't. That's why the B1G held off adding them. Who in the ACC really brings that type of value?

This is why these notions of these conferences jumping right up to 24 teams each is fantasy.

I generally agree. I think both conferences will stick with 16 for longer than most expect.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

I'm just wondering where the B1G and SEC hit the point of diminishing returns.

Both conferences, based on everything I've read, are going to have TV deals in the ballpark of $100 million per team each year. That is for 16 teams.

So for each conference, to add 2 more teams, you would have to increase each teams TV money at least $10M per team (and I feel like that is a conservative estimate) and be worth $110M per year each. So each addition needs to pay for themselves and (at least) $5M (half of the $10M, again I think this is a conservative estimate) per team per year. That is $190M per year in value. Additions 19 and 20 would have to bring over $200M yearly in value. And it just goes up from there.

That limits who gets brought in. Notre Dame is clearly worth it. Washington and Oregon maybe are, but maybe they aren't. That's why the B1G held off adding them. Who in the ACC really brings that type of value?

This is why these notions of these conferences jumping right up to 24 teams each is fantasy.

Like a military arms race, whether the return is "worth it" is a long game for Fox and ESPN.

If one loses money in the short run but crushes the other, it's worth it.

That's the real battle here and the SEC and B1G are just the weapons being used. The other conferences are just collateral damage.

Fox and ESPN will spend whatever they think they need to and not care at all because destroying the other is worth billions in the long run.

 

[UTwild82]

Like a military arms race, whether the return is "worth it" is a long game for Fox and ESPN.

If one loses money in the short run but crushes the other, it's worth it.

That's the real battle here and the SEC and B1G are just the weapons being used. The other conferences are just collateral damage.

Fox and ESPN will spend whatever they think they need to and not care at all because destroying the other is worth billions in the long run.

That sounds good, but no one left on the table besides Notre Dame changes the game. Washington and Oregon, per Dennis Dodd, were at least placed on hold. If the plan is domination, that would have happened yesterday.

Texas, USC, Oklahoma, and UCLA were game changers. Texas and USC bring market and following. Oklahoma bring a devout following. UCLA is the other large brand in the 2nd biggest market in the country.

Notre Dame will decide what happens next. If they can live with making tens of millions less in TV revenue thanks to their crazy endowment, I think things sit still for a bit. If Notre Dame thinks staying put hurts them, them and the B1G finally hate **** each other and ND and 1 or 3 other teams go.

But if that happens, the SEC sits still because they can wait 10 years and still add who they want from the ACC and it's more economically viable for ESPN, who still has those teams for cheap.

 

[allvol123]

Don’t really care who is added, more interested in when we will show Vandy the exit door.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

That sounds good, but no one left on the table besides Notre Dame changes the game. Washington and Oregon, per Dennis Dodd, were at least placed on hold. If the plan is domination, that would have happened yesterday.

Texas, USC, Oklahoma, and UCLA were game changers. Texas and USC bring market and following. Oklahoma bring a devout following. UCLA is the other large brand in the 2nd biggest market in the country.

Notre Dame will decide what happens next. If they can live with making tens of millions less in TV revenue thanks to their crazy endowment, I think things sit still for a bit. If Notre Dame thinks staying put hurts them, them and the B1G finally hate **** each other and ND and 1 or 3 other teams go.

But if that happens, the SEC sits still because they can wait 10 years and still add who they want from the ACC and it's more economically viable for ESPN, who still has those teams for cheap.

I see ND as a dinosaur that's just held on longer than Yale or Army. With NIL drastically changing how players look at recruiting, walking past ancient pictures of ND glory isn't as exciting as it used to be.

Do they still bring eyeballs? Yeah, lots of them currently, but they're consistently overrated and underperforming. Do they still recruit well? Very. Do they win the big ones with those recruits? Very rarely.

ND is like GA was for decades: great recruiting and subpar performance based on that recruiting. When's the last time they won it all??? Mid 80s?

They've worshipped their independence like it was a relic....... let them die on that hill.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

I doubt Florida will allow FSU to come to the SEC....Miami has zero value to the SEC...They have a history and trophies but they can't even fill up thier stadium which they don't even own...I worked security for them for years and its sad the turn outs they get even for the big games like FSU....Plus once again I doubt florida would allow that.

I'm curious. Do you think aTm would allow Texas in the SEC?

Yeah, it's not really something FL can block.