Top 10 Programs, 2010-2020

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MikeHamiltonFan

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#1
Fellow VN,
Time to get your thinking cap on, I want to see based on facilities, natural recruiting advantages (home state talent), fan support, tradition etc. who you think the top 10 programs will be in 2010-2020.

I will not be ranking them, it is way too complicated.

I am hoping for some discussion. Facilities upgraded in a dramatic way, like T. Boone Pickens giving 100 million plus to Oklahoma State can take a no name program and make them a top 25 program if you also have a good coach who can recruit. However you cannot ascend higher no matter how much money you have. Oklahoma State will find out against Georgia just how far they have come, and how far they have to go.

Unlike basketball, football recruiting can miss on a stud because he has been in a bad weight program etc. It is possible for a team to have a fluke run where it all comes together (Northwestern comes to mind) but football follows a natural order where even with the scholarship limits, the best recruiting schools end up with backups who are better than the starters at most of their opponents. While awesome upsets inspire (I was soooo happy when Appy State beat Michigan) they are so inspiring because they are so incredibly rare. TN lost last year games when they had quit on their coach and/or when there was absurd and soul crushing turnovers but if we played Wyoming 10 times, we should win the next 9.

All of that said, here is my list of schools that should be in the top 10 overall as programs (wins that are meaningful, big bowls, not Tulane being 12-0) over the years 2010-2020.

Tennessee
Florida
Alabama
Georgia
LSU
Texas
USC
FSU
Miami
Ohio State

Schools with great traditions that just cannot get there include Clemson, Notre Dame and Michigan.

Notre Dame is the most interesting example to me. I hated them for my whole life basically because as a young lad I learned you could spot losers by looking for Notre Dame fans in the Lou Holtz era (especially Protestant Southern ones who also loved the Jordan era Bulls as their "favorite" team). They had their own TV contract with NBC that is hugely unfair and they were pumped by the media in a way that only a recent politician may have surpassed. Charlie Weis has not been able to resurrect that program. Charlie Weis is a genius. No kids like playing for a loser. Having all your games televised creates a snowball of amazing when you are playing well, but a snowball of despair when your school looks like the place that top rated recruits go to lose to less talented teams.

Here is an old look at top 10 revenue:
Cha-ching: Top 10 football revenue schools : Fanblogs College Football Blog
and here is a look at top 10 wins:
Winningest College Football Programs - The 10 Winningest Programs in College Football History

I think Jim Tressel wants to be the new Woody Hayes and I think he will be. I think that he will draw enough talent to dominate the Big 10, and I think that aside from Illinois if Zook stays and Michigan and Penn State he will not face that much competition. Overall though I think Ohio State is going to be 7 or so in the top 10, and the fact that the Big Blue are excluded entirely simply means they will be at 11 or 12. USC recruiting wise is going to stay beastly. The Pac 10 also affords them the opportunity to stay the Goliath with a bunch of Davids around. I do not want Kevin Simon's dad to go over the head to head record of the Pac 10 to the SEC with me again, I just want it to be clear that I think USC will keep Pete and that they will dominate their conference in a way that is complete enough that they perpetuate it by dominating the recruiting of the kids who stay out there. It does not hurt that they are close to Hollywood and that they give mansions and cars to kids without getting in trouble with the NCAA. If sanctions come, they could have a down period like Alabama did.

I think Miami and FSU are going to be back, and my reasoning is not because of some coaching insight that Miami will dominate because Beamer is slipping (the only really tough game they should have in their alignment) or that FSU will be able to stop the Ga Tech option, it is because both are schools in areas recruits like, with lots of attractive classmates and with fertile ground recruiting wise. They should be able to consistently be in that slot, and post Bowden FSU will not fall off the map like Nebraska has post Osbourne.

I would enjoy alternate lists with reasoning.
 
#2
#2
You excluded Oklahoma. why? Surely Miami shouldnt be there. Shannon will be fired if things dont turn around considerably in the next 2 years. FSU is in the right direction, yes. And if you want to say Georgia, a team that strives to do so well yet utterly miss all expectations, then you should also include Penn State and Oregon (IMO). You should also consider West Virginia. There fate for the next decade is yet to be determined just as much as Miami's is. Only difference is, West Virginia has been winning, both during the season AND in bowl games. There is a high chance for a drop off though. And as much as Id love to say Tennessee, i will reserve my comments on that until i see this season unravel...


oh, and dont forget Duke :crazy:
 
#4
#4
replace GA with Oklahoma.... not even close

Only 1 ACC team (FSU OR Miami - I would say Miami because of their tradition and the fact that FSU has had so many compliance problems & Bowden's days are numbered)

Leave Michigan off because : (a) Rich Rod is a joke (b) no one likes to play in the cold (c) ohio state

ND will only find that success if they can buy Urban Meyer
 
#7
#7
Tennessee
Florida
Oklahoma
Texas
USC
Ohio State
Alabama
LSU
Miami
Michigan (rich rod might not work there but beleive you me, they will find someone who well. Michigan is a very big part of college football no matter how much we hate them. they will be back.)

Im NOT going to say georgia...and we better hope they arnt because if gerogia is in the top 10 schools then we arnt. We need to dip into georgia to get the caliber of players we need to compeate for championships.
 
#8
#8
MikeHamiltonFan said:
Fellow VN,
Time to get your thinking cap on, I want to see based on facilities, natural recruiting advantages (home state talent), fan support, tradition etc. who you think the top 10 programs will be in 2010-2020.

I will not be ranking them, it is way too complicated.

I am hoping for some discussion. Facilities upgraded in a dramatic way, like T. Boone Pickens giving 100 million plus to Oklahoma State can take a no name program and make them a top 25 program if you also have a good coach who can recruit. However you cannot ascend higher no matter how much money you have. Oklahoma State will find out against Georgia just how far they have come, and how far they have to go.

Unlike basketball, football recruiting can miss on a stud because he has been in a bad weight program etc. It is possible for a team to have a fluke run where it all comes together (Northwestern comes to mind) but football follows a natural order where even with the scholarship limits, the best recruiting schools end up with backups who are better than the starters at most of their opponents. While awesome upsets inspire (I was soooo happy when Appy State beat Michigan) they are so inspiring because they are so incredibly rare. TN lost last year games when they had quit on their coach and/or when there was absurd and soul crushing turnovers but if we played Wyoming 10 times, we should win the next 9.

All of that said, here is my list of schools that should be in the top 10 overall as programs (wins that are meaningful, big bowls, not Tulane being 12-0) over the years 2010-2020.

Tennessee
Florida
Alabama
Georgia
LSU
Texas
USC
FSU
Miami
Ohio State

Schools with great traditions that just cannot get there include Clemson, Notre Dame and Michigan.

Notre Dame is the most interesting example to me. I hated them for my whole life basically because as a young lad I learned you could spot losers by looking for Notre Dame fans in the Lou Holtz era (especially Protestant Southern ones who also loved the Jordan era Bulls as their "favorite" team). They had their own TV contract with NBC that is hugely unfair and they were pumped by the media in a way that only a recent politician may have surpassed. Charlie Weis has not been able to resurrect that program. Charlie Weis is a genius. No kids like playing for a loser. Having all your games televised creates a snowball of amazing when you are playing well, but a snowball of despair when your school looks like the place that top rated recruits go to lose to less talented teams.

Here is an old look at top 10 revenue:
Cha-ching: Top 10 football revenue schools : Fanblogs College Football Blog
and here is a look at top 10 wins:
Winningest College Football Programs - The 10 Winningest Programs in College Football History

I think Jim Tressel wants to be the new Woody Hayes and I think he will be. I think that he will draw enough talent to dominate the Big 10, and I think that aside from Illinois if Zook stays and Michigan and Penn State he will not face that much competition. Overall though I think Ohio State is going to be 7 or so in the top 10, and the fact that the Big Blue are excluded entirely simply means they will be at 11 or 12. USC recruiting wise is going to stay beastly. The Pac 10 also affords them the opportunity to stay the Goliath with a bunch of Davids around. I do not want Kevin Simon's dad to go over the head to head record of the Pac 10 to the SEC with me again, I just want it to be clear that I think USC will keep Pete and that they will dominate their conference in a way that is complete enough that they perpetuate it by dominating the recruiting of the kids who stay out there. It does not hurt that they are close to Hollywood and that they give mansions and cars to kids without getting in trouble with the NCAA. If sanctions come, they could have a down period like Alabama did.

I think Miami and FSU are going to be back, and my reasoning is not because of some coaching insight that Miami will dominate because Beamer is slipping (the only really tough game they should have in their alignment) or that FSU will be able to stop the Ga Tech option, it is because both are schools in areas recruits like, with lots of attractive classmates and with fertile ground recruiting wise. They should be able to consistently be in that slot, and post Bowden FSU will not fall off the map like Nebraska has post Osbourne.

I would enjoy alternate lists with reasoning.
Click to expand...
Texas on the list ahead of the team that has won the Big XII three straight seasons is hilarious. Mack Brown has won exactly one conference title in his tenure.
 
#9
#9
PA Vol said:
You excluded Oklahoma. why? Surely Miami shouldnt be there.

Has Georgia been a top 10 program over the last 9 years? I think the answer is yes but I understand the feelings otherwise. Richt is from Miami and gets tons of good Florida players and no one is better than Garner in getting top GA players. They also play in a pro style offense that is good at getting players to the pros.

Leaving Oklahoma off is pretty inexcusable. I had them on earlier, do not know how I left them off.

Tennessee
Florida
Alabama
Georgia
LSU
Texas
USC
FSU
Miami
Oklahoma

Miami has a tradition with winning with criminals. They also have an UNREAL amount of football talent close by. I think as time goes on, guys will want to go to the U still because of the rabid fan base, good NFL alums and relatively easy path to a BCS bowl. FSU and Miami have enough natural talent in their area that a competent coach should get to 9 wins every year at a minimum, and that to me is the definition of a top 10 program. If I am going to argue for a dramatic downturn in a program over the next 10 years, I guess I would take off Ohio State and put on Oklahoma.

I do hate OSU especially after they accused of cheating when we broke Eddie George in our victory and then when Greg Oden was allowed to bleed on the court all the way to victory in basketball. The reason I think they could drop off is simple, there is not much talent in their area and increasingly I believe that the media fascination with ND, OSU, Michigan etc will wane as the top 10 programs above dominate more and more and more. If the SEC can keep in state talent and drain the North of the relatively few good 'uns they have, the Big 10 will go from bad to worse.

Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma all should be included.

Leaving UGA out is tough to do under the criteria of top 10 program.

Lets look from 2000-2008. Include what you think the team will do for 2009 and you can start to see a basis of either needing to say why a team will be worse in 2010-2020 or why they will be better.
Win percentage computation form

#1 Boise State 0.85217 98 17 0 115 This team notwithstanding their 1 win does not matter in the discussion of top 10 program.
#2 Texas 0.84348 97 18 0 115
With his recruiting classes you expect him to do better than he does, but Mack Brown has been winning alot of games.
#3 Oklahoma 0.84298 102 19 0 121
Stoops is young and a great coach and should be there so no decline.
#4 Southern Cal 0.80870 93 22 0 115 No decline unless NCAA sanctions.
#5 Ohio State 0.79825 91 23 0 114
Tressel is staying. May decline just in recruiting. You only get punked so many times before young kids in Big 10 country decide they would rather play on the SEC network, go to the NFL from there etc.
#6 Georgia 0.77586 90 26 0 116
This is where they are, even if people hate Richt and think we are a better program (which I do, it is hard to keep them out.
#7 Louisiana State 0.76923 90 27 0 117 I pray I get to see them lose to us with Chavis heading their D. I think it could happen in two years.
#8 Florida 0.75652 87 28 0 115
#9 Virginia Tech 0.75424 89 29 0 118 Great winning percentage but is Beamer relevant? Not a top 10 program. Blacksburg sucks, Mike Vick was their Peyton Manning...need I say more?
#10 Texas Christian 0.74775 83 28 0 111 The horned frogs do not matter as a national program
#11 Miami-Florida 0.74107 83 29 0 112 This is the same Miami team we all know has struggled mightily and has seen coaching turnover, best coordinators leave etc. Still doing well overall. Also they can get to a BCS bowl every other year if they can right the ship.
#12 Louisville 0.70536 79 33 0 112
Surprising to me they are this high. They do not matter and lose to UK sometimes when UK sucks. I think they will never attain Petrino heights again.
13 Auburn 0.70175 80 34 0 114
As I stated, I think even with Trooper Taylor recruiting for them, Alabama will make it too hard for Auburn to be a top 10 program now that they have such excellent recruiting. Auburn will be a top 20 program though.
14 Utah 0.69725 76 33 0 109
Thank you Urban Meyer. Do not think they can sustain their success, certainly think like Boise that they would be very blessed to win 1 BCS bowl in the next 10 years.
15 Boston College 0.69565 80 35 0 115 No...Town full of ugly women, historically full of lots of the best NE players. I think they will lose more of them.
16t Oregon 0.68750 77 35 0 112
Being a Nike school cannot help you as much in football. Onterrio Smith is one of the best players they had in this period. The Duck Pond will never be a hallowed place in CFB overall.
16t West Virginia 0.68750 77 35 0 112 Rich Rod is gone. Pittsburgh should be better. Parity on their schedule will make their wins against crap teams matter even less from 2010-2020 than they do now. They will have 1 great team however and no one in Morgantown will have a coach to sit on after that season.
18 Michigan 0.67857 76 36 0 112
How long will it take Rich to get his system going? How well will his players from that system do in the NFL? My guesses are 2-3 years during which they will slip in lots of peoples minds and have more trouble recruiting and not well at all which will also lead to trouble recruiting.
19 Tennessee 0.67257 76 37 0 113
Our national recruiting is coming back, but more importantly our players will be out there with passion and purpose and will win a ton more games. I see TN in the top 10 2010-2020, and I see Lane Kiffin at the helm the whole time, with gnashing of teeth as various assistants move on, but like Pete Carrol, the machine continues.
20 Florida State 0.67241 78 38 0 116 Bobby Bowden made that program from nothing but he needs to handle his retirement and the transition right. If he does, FSU is top 10, if not they are out of the top 10. They are the closest to getting knocked off the list, not Miami.

So to update from above, you keep Georgia on, you take off FSU and you add Oklahoma. Michigan will maybe be a second half of 2010-2020 top program. They have top 10 tradition, top 10 facilities, top 10 fan base. They also have a cold school that gets snottier every year (uglier girls) and they are going to keep slipping as compared to the SEC.
Click to expand...
 
#10
#10
Do we really belong on this list yet??

This has been said so much that it is almost cliché, but it rings true: CLK has yet to coach a single down of football at UT.

Tennessee's future is still very much in the fog at the moment, IMO.
 
#11
#11
MikeHamiltonFan said:
All of that said, here is my list of schools that should be in the top 10 overall as programs (wins that are meaningful, big bowls, not Tulane being 12-0) over the years 2010-2020.

Tennessee
Florida
Alabama
Georgia
LSU
Texas
USC
FSU
Miami
Ohio State
Click to expand...


UT
What is your basis for that? The past decade, overall, has been pretty bad. Nowhere near Top Ten. You got a new coach who is recruiting well, but projecting top 10 status a decade out for this program that has potential but is showing nothing right now is just nuts.

Florida
A good chance to be in the list, but one could argue that they've now had their decade. Tebow is gone in 2010, and so should be the great bulk of the defense. If Meyer goes to the NFL, some unknown will take over. The program is at the top of the heap right now, but with all that change, going to be tough to repeat the past decade. Only real reason to give them a shot is recruiting base is ridonculous.

Alabama
A definite possibility in they are a team showing great momentum in all aspects, recruits, money, etc.

UGA
No. Perpetual also-ran status. They had their Herschel Walker years. That's it.

LSU
Why not? They get the best of Louisiana and a good number of the best Texas kids. They've got money and one of the toughest places to play in the country.

Texas
At lunch today law partner was commenting, "How come Texas isn't always at the top? They get all those great Texas kids." My retort: No they don't. They need to change some attitudes down there about certain folks if they want to take a step up. No sign of that yet.

USC
Duh.

FSU
No way. This is a team that took off due to the tremendous ability of Bobby Bowden to recruit, especially in the Glades. That's clearly over with. And in the meantime the idiots joined the ACC, which gives them no opportunity to shine as a top program next to SEC teams to the north, south, east, and west of them. FSU is done as a frequent top ten program. They'll have their years, but not many, and not strung together.

Miami
Of those you mentioned, they'd have the furthest to go. But they also have at least some of the key ingredients to get there. Recruiting base within 100 miles of campus is enough to stock any top flight program.

Ohio State
I suppose, if the criteria is purely media ranking, yes. But we all know what happens when they have an SEC match-up at the end of the year. They'll be there every year, but just because the overrating continues.
 
Last edited:
#12
#12
I think TN will recover, but not with Lame Kiffen. He will be a coach for 2-3 years then out. Should have went for Dan Mullen. He would right the ship in a good way. He still may be your head coach in a few years.
 
#14
#14
in no particular order.....

texas
oklahoma
usc
florida
georgia
alabama
michigan
ohio state
miami
ucla

i put ucla because i do believe in the next decade someone will emerge to contend with USC in the pac 10. may not be ucla, but it will be somebody.

michigan is on there because the winningest program of all time can't stay down forever.

interesting that no one believe notre dame will be back. isn't urban meyer heading there?
 
#15
#15
GatorFun77 said:
I think TN will recover, but not with Lame Kiffen. He will be a coach for 2-3 years then out. Should have went for Dan Mullen. He would right the ship in a good way. He still may be your head coach in a few years.
Click to expand...

yeah youre right.

id much rather be in mississippi st.'s position right now...?

they have done one noteworthy thing this offseason that i can remember. and that was when dixon got a dui.
 
#16
#16
My choices...
Almost Locks
FL
USC
Bama
Very Strong possibilities
Ohio State
Oklahoma
LSU
Above average possiblity
Texas
Notre Dame - I think Urban goes there and makes them a contender
Michigan - hate him or not Rich Rod will make them the Big 2 confrence again
Tennessee - I think the dream recruiting staff gives us a good shot at being a consistent top 20 program...have to see them coach to go much higher than that.
FSU - Jimbo will be a great replacement and will get the program back on track
North Carolina - this is my suprise, I really think Butch Davis is doing something special in Tarheel country...watch out ACC
Georgia
Darkhorses
USF
UCLA
Va Tech (probably will fade off with Beamer but who knows someone from ACC has to step up)
Nebraska - Will Bo Pelini help Nebraska take a stranglehold on the Big 12 north??
 
#19
#19
lawgator1 said:
UT
What is your basis for that? The past decade, overall, has been pretty bad. Nowhere near Top Ten. You got a new coach who is recruiting well, but projecting top 10 status a decade out for this program that has potential but is showing nothing right now is just nuts.
Click to expand...
You first. What was your basis for this?

I have to tell u as a Gator fan, I have feeling that this is going to be great for you. Let me be the first to welcome you back to SEC/BCS status. UT is back, baby!
Click to expand...
http://www.volnation.com/forum/1867436-post465.html
 
#20
#20
lawgator1 said:
UT
What is your basis for that? The past decade, overall, has been pretty bad. Nowhere near Top Ten. You got a new coach who is recruiting well, but projecting top 10 status a decade out for this program that has potential but is showing nothing right now is just nuts.

Florida
A good chance to be in the list, but one could argue that they've now had their decade. Tebow is gone in 2010, and so should be the great bulk of the defense. If Meyer goes to the NFL, some unknown will take over. The program is at the top of the heap right now, but with all that change, going to be tough to repeat the past decade. Only real reason to give them a shot is recruiting base is ridonculous.

Alabama
A definite possibility in they are a team showing great momentum in all aspects, recruits, money, etc.

UGA
No. Perpetual also-ran status. They had their Herschel Walker years. That's it.

LSU
Why not? They get the best of Louisiana and a good number of the best Texas kids. They've got money and one of the toughest places to play in the country.

Texas
At lunch today law partner was commenting, "How come Texas isn't always at the top? They get all those great Texas kids." My retort: No they don't. They need to change some attitudes down there about certain folks if they want to take a step up. No sign of that yet.

USC
Duh.

FSU
No way. This is a team that took off due to the tremendous ability of Bobby Bowden to recruit, especially in the Glades. That's clearly over with. And in the meantime the idiots joined the ACC, which gives them no opportunity to shine as a top program next to SEC teams to the north, south, east, and west of them. FSU is done as a frequent top ten program. They'll have their years, but not many, and not strung together.

Miami
Of those you mentioned, they'd have the furthest to go. But they also have at least some of the key ingredients to get there. Recruiting base within 100 miles of campus is enough to stock any top flight program.

Ohio State
I suppose, if the criteria is purely media ranking, yes. But we all know what happens when they have an SEC match-up at the end of the year. They'll be there every year, but just because the overrating continues.
Click to expand...


Couldn't disagree more about FSU.
 
#22
#22
615 Vol said:
Couldn't disagree more about FSU.
Click to expand...

From -Black in Clearwater, Fla.: With 44 of the top 250 guys hailing from the state of Florida; it seems the sunshine state is loaded once again. How would you rate the 2010 state of Florida prospects with previous classes? Top 5 Florida classes since you have covered the state?

I think it's as good as I can remember and I have been covering the state of Florida for a very long time. The difference this season is what's going on in south Florida. Sure the 2008 class was unreal from down there but this group is even deeper. It's ridiculous the amount of talent in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. 24 prospects from those three counties reside in the Rivals250. In fact, there may be up to 200 DI kids as well from down there. That's why it's a big-time year in Fla. Overall, other areas like Tallahassee are down while I think its a little down in Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville. - Jamie Newberg
 
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