Tom Fornelli: Vol's SEC Most Overrated Team, Will Finish 3rd in the East

#102
#102
"Tennessee is listed as a 4/5 favorite to win the East;...Tennessee is followed in the East by Georgia (2/1), Florida (9/2), Missouri (16/1) and Kentucky, South Carolina and Vanderbilt (all 25/1)."

Bovada SEC odds
 
#104
#104
"3-13 vs ranked teams..."

3-18 is the figure ive seen, but i havent checked either figure for accuracy.

Expectations are high, but if that stat doesn't concern you, you should pay closer attention.
 
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#105
#105
Bama gonna start a true freshman at QB and has new RB this year. Yeah talent on Defense is good but I think they have 3 losses
 
#106
#106
FTCvol said:
"3-13 vs ranked teams..."

3-18 is the figure ive seen, but i havent checked either figure for accuracy.

Expectations are high, but if that stat doesn't concern you, you should pay closer attention.
Click to expand...

Stat junkies are almost the worst kind of people because there is almost always a greater story behind the numbers than just strictly the numbers.

3-18 is scary if every single UT team that played a ranked team was on equal talent levels as the other Tennessee teams. Butch's first two years here we faced about 6-7 ranked teams each year with a pretty much empty cupboard. I'm not sure how anyone could have expected him to do more with what he had.

So those first two seasons account for at least 13-14 of those losses right there. If you want to pull last year's numbers in when we had a more comparable talent level to Team 120 then sure. But just looking at that number alone doesn't tell the whole story.
 
#107
#107
VersaceButch said:
Stat junkies are almost the worst kind of people because there is almost always a greater story behind the numbers than just strictly the numbers.

3-18 is scary if every single UT team that played a ranked team was on equal talent levels as the other Tennessee teams. Butch's first two years here we faced about 6-7 ranked teams each year with a pretty much empty cupboard. I'm not sure how anyone could have expected him to do more with what he had.

So those first two seasons account for at least 13-14 of those losses right there. If you want to pull last year's numbers in when we had a more comparable talent level to Team 120 then sure. But just looking at that number alone doesn't tell the whole story.
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I could be mistaken, but I think the figure ive seen refers to Jones' career numbers against ranked teams. I understand your point about talent level, but the number suggests a troublesome inability to beat good teams.

Edit: ill add that last season did nothing to dispel this concern...
 
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#108
#108
Heh, played poker with Tom Fornelli on FTP back in the day and posted on a small poker forum with him too. The guy loves him some Chicago sports.

Didn't know he made it to the big time CBS Sports Staff. Anyone who takes 10 minutes to take a look at this team knows they should be the favorite to win the East.
 
#110
#110
FTCvol said:
I could be mistaken, but I think the figure ive seen refers to Jones' career numbers against ranked teams. I understand your point about talent level, but the number suggests a troublesome inability to beat good teams.

Edit: ill add that last season did nothing to dispel this concern...
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There is no way 3-18 is his career numbers as a head coach. That is definitely his record at TN. And yeah, last season was troublesome and there was some coaching issues to point the finger at, but also the team did not close the games out like they should have. There were multiple places to point fingers at. You could easily say if Aaron Medley didn't miss that short field goal against Oklahoma that we never even go into overtime against them.

The point is anything except for last year for Butch should be moot and a worthless example because he hasn't had the dogs to work with until 2015. This will be his year for true judgement. If he fails again and chokes 3 more 13-14 point leads then it will be fair to place it on coaching. There are no more excuses this year. We are one of the 3 most talented teams in the SEC, it's win or go home now.
 
#112
#112
VersaceButch said:
There is no way 3-18 is his career numbers as a head coach. That is definitely his record at TN. And yeah, last season was troublesome and there was some coaching issues to point the finger at, but also the team did not close the games out like they should have. There were multiple places to point fingers at. You could easily say if Aaron Medley didn't miss that short field goal against Oklahoma that we never even go into overtime against them.

The point is anything except for last year for Butch should be moot and a worthless example because he hasn't had the dogs to work with until 2015. This will be his year for true judgement. If he fails again and chokes 3 more 13-14 point leads then it will be fair to place it on coaching. There are no more excuses this year. We are one of the 3 most talented teams in the SEC, it's win or go home now.
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Link:
https://www.seccountry.com/sec/every-current-sec-head-coach-vs-ranked-teams

You can say none of the other games should count, but they still do. And I agree the context surrounding the numbers is worth considering, but the fact is we blew four games last season that we could/ should have won. Based on those numbers and last season's results, to say Butch has done anything but struggle in big games would be inaccurate.

We agree on your last point - no excuses this season. I hope the team, and the coach, has figured out how to close teams out when It counts.
 
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#113
#113
FTCvol said:
I could be mistaken, but I think the figure ive seen refers to Jones' career numbers against ranked teams. I understand your point about talent level, but the number suggests a troublesome inability to beat good teams.

Edit: ill add that last season did nothing to dispel this concern...
Click to expand...

Okay Jones has been HBC at Central Michigan, Cincinnati, and Tennessee at its lowest in living memory (except mine because I'm old enough to remember the early Majors years:p) So to expect anyone to have a winning record against ranked teams with the teams he has had to field is asking a bit much. A better indicator of how well he has done would be how has he done against ranked teams against the spread. I don't know those numbers but they would be more telling of his abilities IMO.
 
#114
#114
Best I remember Vols were 2-3 against ranked teams last year. Beat NW and Georgia, lost to Bama, Oklahoma, and Florida.
 
#115
#115
FTCvol said:
Link:
https://www.seccountry.com/sec/every-current-sec-head-coach-vs-ranked-teams

You can say none of the other games should count, but they still do. And I agree the context surrounding the numbers is worth considering, but the fact is we blew four games last season that we could/ should have won. Based on those numbers and last season's results, to say Butch has done anything but struggle in big games would be inaccurate.

We agree on your last point - no excuses this season. I hope the team, and the coach, has figured out how to close teams out when It counts.
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He must not have faced but a small handful of ranked teams at his other 3 stops cause I know he has played against at least 15-16 ranked teams while at TN. And can you really blame him for losing to ranked teams as HC of Central Michigan?

I get every point you are making, and trust me I share the same frustrations after last season about closing out games, but at the same time I choose to look at the fact most people thought we would finish 8-4/9-3 and lose those same games anyway, they just didn't think we would have opened up such a huge lead on Oklahoma or Arkansas.

We should a lot of improvement at the end of the year, and I am going to withhold all final judgement until this season plays out. He finally has the talent and experience, now it's just about winning the games. If he doesn't do it with this team then it is completely fair to say he probably never will do it.
 
#117
#117
lawgator1 said:
That's true. But I have sensed a pattern here on VN of late where, when a commentator picks you to be in the SEC cship game, he's an excellent judge of talent and knows what he's talking about; whereas, if he is a skeptic of the Vols, he's a hack.

Just sayin.'
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Look at you! Nonpartisan investigation of a Vol fans message board and "sensing patterns". :salute: Bet you won't find any of that shizz on a Bama or Gators board. :nono:



Just sayin :)
 
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#118
#118
I doubt this team needs motivation to strive for excellence and a SEC title but thanks for the bulletin board material you have provided to Butch and Team 120. This will be a great topic to discuss late in the year for the paper that this Sportswriter represents.
 
#119
#119
Not a fan of Thursday night games because I'm a 2nd shifter...Got the DVR set so i'll catch it when I get home...GO VOLS !!!!
 
#121
#121
Three predicted VOLS to win east. Three predicted a 2nd place finish. One a third place finish. I like what they say. Very respectful. VOLS going to roll.
 
#122
#122
VOLS of today and 2004 are totally the same team guys. The evidence is insurmountable; both wear Orange, both sing a certain tune about wild women and corn from a jar, both field a scrappy blue tick hound dog...totally the same team.
 
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