Three Interesting stats (thank you KenPom)

#1

zjcvols

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#1
Been cruising through KenPom and Tennessee stats this year. I found three interesting one.

1. The turnover percentage isn’t as bad as you might think- Tennessee is at 17.3% which is actually 79th in the country. I thought that would be around 18-19%. I think the turnovers get exaggerated because they seem to make silly turnovers during bigger moments.

2. Getting to the line is crucial for this offense- In terms of offensive efficiency the numbers aren’t super pretty but one saving grace is Tennessee is 43rd in free throw rate. If you aren’t going to shoot and make a lot of 3’s (and Tennessee doesn’t) then getting to the line is a good consolation prize.

3. Tennessee’s defense is elite but one concern...- As we know Barnes, doesn’t mind giving up 3’s and living with the results. Usually Tennessee’s defensive 3 point percentage is higher. Right now teams are shooting 29.7% against Tennessee from 3, 25th in the country. Now, Tennessee is longer on defense and this is the best close out/recover team in Barnes’ tenure. But one issue could be if that number randomizes back to higher marks. Barnes’ teams at UT the previous five years give up around 34% (previous three years 33.4%). Tennessee will need to make sure they continue to push the pace and score to keep with teams that might shoot better against us.
 
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#2

cncchris33

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#2
I think the decision to increase the pace and let the guards run is going to be a watershed moment with this team. They have really come alive in the past two games and shown an ability to get to the rim and finish or draw fouls. Even Vescovi found his way to the rim, last night. I’d like to see us do a MUCH better job of finishing at the rim (JJJ, especially). This Tennessee team misses more shots at the rim than any I can remember, and we aren’t great on the offensive boards, either, so we need to be more efficient. Shooting the 3 as effectively as we did certainly helps, though.
 
#3

ALStateLineVol

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#3
I think the decision to increase the pace and let the guards run is going to be a watershed moment with this team. They have really come alive in the past two games and shown an ability to get to the rim and finish or draw fouls. Even Vescovi found his way to the rim, last night. I’d like to see us do a MUCH better job of finishing at the rim (JJJ, especially). This Tennessee team misses more shots at the rim than any I can remember, and we aren’t great on the offensive boards, either, so we need to be more efficient. Shooting the 3 as effectively as we did certainly helps, though.
The increased pace will also make us rely on the bench more due to fatigue. I read somewhere(can't remember where) that KJ was fatigued at the end of the game last night and the fact that Barnes plays man defense, will only magnify this. It will be critical to get in better shape if we want to push the pace. I'm not sure we have a deep enough bench with that pace, but I did like the up-tempo much better.
 
#4

golfballs

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#4
Have you seen the 'Game Plan' page? It correlates each of Dean Oliver's "Four Factors" to both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Tennessee Game Plan.png

Across all of our games, FTR actually has a negative correlation to offensive efficiency at -13.

Of course that is a low correlation factor and means the factor isn't very significant or it can be explained by outliers. In our case, Tennessee Tech, App St were both games we didn't get to the line and had excellent OE. Throw out non-power 5 teams, and it still doesn't give a super strong correlation because of the Kansas, TAMU and UK games.

ALL FTR.png

I don't think the correlation values themselves are that significant, because of course FG% is going to be the strongest correlation to OE. I think they're only relevant when comparing to other teams #s or NCAA averages.

At least in the NBA Dean Oliver found that most teams performance can be explained by the below weighting of each factor:
  1. Shooting (40%)
  2. Turnovers (25%)
  3. Rebounding (20%)
  4. Free Throws (15%)
Making a general comparison between these weights and the correlation factors, FG% and TOs are more critical to our offense and OR and FTR less.
 
#6

golfballs

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#6
I think it's interesting how KenPom has correlations for both OE and DE. And looking at LSU, opponent FTR actually has a positive correlation to their OE and a negative (meaning good) correlation to the DE. FTR for Tennessee has a +38 correlation to DE (meaning it gets worse) which is interesting.... Anyway, so whatever it is that causes this, tells me that in this game if we're shooting a lot of FTs it means the style of play is going to be favorable to LSU and not for us.

I don’t know enough about the X’s and O’s to understand if this data can be explained by something each team does or if it’s just statistical junk. I normally look at this data prior to each matchup to see if any things stands out and then watch for it in the game. Normally on a game by game basis it’s hit or miss. But over the course of a season sometimes a pattern presents itself
 
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#7
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#7
Have you seen the 'Game Plan' page? It correlates each of Dean Oliver's "Four Factors" to both offensive and defensive efficiency.

View attachment 350491

Across all of our games, FTR actually has a negative correlation to offensive efficiency at -13.

Of course that is a low correlation factor and means the factor isn't very significant or it can be explained by outliers. In our case, Tennessee Tech, App St were both games we didn't get to the line and had excellent OE. Throw out non-power 5 teams, and it still doesn't give a super strong correlation because of the Kansas, TAMU and UK games.

View attachment 350492

I don't think the correlation values themselves are that significant, because of course FG% is going to be the strongest correlation to OE. I think they're only relevant when comparing to other teams #s or NCAA averages.

At least in the NBA Dean Oliver found that most teams performance can be explained by the below weighting of each factor:
  1. Shooting (40%)
  2. Turnovers (25%)
  3. Rebounding (20%)
  4. Free Throws (15%)
Making a general comparison between these weights and the correlation factors, FG% and TOs are more critical to our offense and OR and FTR less.
So is this good or bad?
 
#9

volroadwarrior

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#9
When we make shots with this good defense, we win. When we don't, we lose. Pretty simple. Even when we get in the paint if shots are not going in we lose. Good defense gives you a chance, but you have to make shots.
 
#10

1985Vols

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#10
The increased pace will also make us rely on the bench more due to fatigue. I read somewhere(can't remember where) that KJ was fatigued at the end of the game last night and the fact that Barnes plays man defense, will only magnify this. It will be critical to get in better shape if we want to push the pace. I'm not sure we have a deep enough bench with that pace, but I did like the up-tempo much better.
Wish Ticket had a jump shot
 
#11

VOLINVONORE

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#11
Been cruising through KenPom and Tennessee stats this year. I found three interesting one.

1. The turnover percentage isn’t as bad as you might think- Tennessee is at 17.3% which is actually 79th in the country. I thought that would be around 18-19%. I think the turnovers get exaggerated because they seem to make silly turnovers during bigger moments.

2. Getting to the line is crucial for this offense- In terms of offensive efficiency the numbers aren’t super pretty but one saving grace is Tennessee is 43rd in free throw rate. If you aren’t going to shoot and make a lot of 3’s (and Tennessee doesn’t) then getting to the line is a good consolation prize.

3. Tennessee’s defense is elite but one concern...- As we know Barnes, doesn’t mind giving up 3’s and living with the results. Usually Tennessee’s defensive 3 point percentage is higher. Right now teams are shooting 29.7% against Tennessee from 3, 25th in the country. Now, Tennessee is longer on defense and this is the best close out/recover team in Barnes’ tenure. But one issue could be if that number randomizes back to higher marks. Barnes’ teams at UT the previous five years give up around 34% (previous three years 33.4%). Tennessee will need to make sure they continue to push the pace and score to keep with teams that might shoot better against us.
My concern over turn overs is the high number we have against the press in tight games. We made a bunch of them last night, but when we did not turn it over, we hit most of the free throws. Bailey needs to quit shooting 3s. He seems to be getting worse rather than better.
 
#12

tennrich1

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#12
My concern over turn overs is the high number we have against the press in tight games. We made a bunch of them last night, but when we did not turn it over, we hit most of the free throws. Bailey needs to quit shooting 3s. He seems to be getting worse rather than better.
We do seem to struggle with the press. I'm not sure why exactly. It appears we don't protect the ball with any urgency. I'm sure that's not the case but whatever happens makes it appear that way. CRB did lament in the post game that we stood lazily with ball several times and got our proverbial pocket picked. That, to me, should never happen with the athletes we have on this team. But we are so good in so many areas its hard to be too critical.
 
#13

PandamoniumReigns

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#13
My concern over turn overs is the high number we have against the press in tight games. We made a bunch of them last night, but when we did not turn it over, we hit most of the free throws. Bailey needs to quit shooting 3s. He seems to be getting worse rather than better.
Was about to say this same thing. The turnovers are frustrating because they comes in big chunks. They will have 2 TOs it seems in the first 10 minutes and then go to half with 10 TOs. They have to work on their press, although it seemed to improve vs GA somewhat.

They also need to not let a short little, long armed guy with huge shoulders penetrate as easily as GA's KD Johnson did last night. He seemed like an oddly shaped fellow, but he was fearless.
 
#14

Backwards K

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#14
This team still struggles:
--to guard quick teams with players who can get to the basket
--to handle the ball against pressure defense
--to score in the post against physical teams

It will be very interesting to see how they fare against LSU, Auburn and UF (2nd round). Need to figure these areas out or they will have a short stay in the SEC and the NCAA tournaments.
 
#15

Lankykong

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#15
I think it's interesting how KenPom has correlations for both OE and DE. And looking at LSU, opponent FTR actually has a positive correlation to their OE and a negative (meaning good) correlation to the DE. FTR for Tennessee has a +38 correlation to DE (meaning it gets worse) which is interesting.... Anyway, so whatever it is that causes this, tells me that in this game if we're shooting a lot of FTs it means the style of play is going to be favorable to LSU and not for us.

I don’t know enough about the X’s and O’s to understand if this data can be explained by something each team does or if it’s just statistical junk. I normally look at this data prior to each matchup to see if any things stands out and then watch for it in the game. Normally on a game by game basis it’s hit or miss. But over the course of a season sometimes a pattern presents itself
I think it’s because the FT shooting contests have put Pons in foul trouble
 
#17

BruisedOrange

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#17
I think the decision to increase the pace and let the guards run is going to be a watershed moment with this team. They have really come alive in the past two games and shown an ability to get to the rim and finish or draw fouls. Even Vescovi found his way to the rim, last night. I’d like to see us do a MUCH better job of finishing at the rim (JJJ, especially). This Tennessee team misses more shots at the rim than any I can remember, and we aren’t great on the offensive boards, either, so we need to be more efficient. Shooting the 3 as effectively as we did certainly helps, though.
Barnes has said in multiple interviews that all season he and his staff have been trying to get this team to run like they did last night, and to take it all the way to the hoop.

The coaches haven't "turned them loose"... they've been kicking their butts all season and the players have finally taken ownership of it. Don't know if it was a confidence thing for the freshmen, a conditioning issue due to COVID limitations all along since summer, or just developing competence with the mental part of the game and not having to think about running plays before they get the ball downcourt.

But for sure, they are getting more comfortable using their full skillsets.
 
#18

turnuptheVOLtage

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#18
My response to #1... yeah we may not turn it over as much as it seems, but the timing is absolutely awful and we tend to turn it over in spurts or when we have a lead over 5-6 points. A little more composure and we would be a legit top 10 team.
 
#19

cncchris33

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#19
Barnes has said in multiple interviews that all season he and his staff have been trying to get this team to run like they did last night, and to take it all the way to the hoop.

The coaches haven't "turned them loose"... they've been kicking their butts all season and the players have finally taken ownership of it. Don't know if it was a confidence thing for the freshmen, a conditioning issue due to COVID limitations all along since summer, or just developing competence with the mental part of the game and not having to think about running plays before they get the ball downcourt.

But for sure, they are getting more comfortable using their full skillsets.
I've noted that very thing, myself, and probably worded that poorly given the controversy surrounding the idea of who was holding the team back; the guards not executing the coach's plan, or the coach not turning them loose.

What I meant was now that they have done it and proven that it is effective, letting them continue to run with that idea and further emphasize it.
 
#20

BruisedOrange

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#20
I've noted that very thing, myself, and probably worded that poorly given the controversy surrounding the idea of who was holding the team back; the guards not executing the coach's plan, or the coach not turning them loose.

What I meant was now that they have done it and proven that it is effective, letting them continue to run with that idea and further emphasize it.
When I saw it was you who wrote it, I figured it must've just been a fast composition. But I am amazed at how many posters keep blaming Barnes, as if these freshmen were now schooling him.
 
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#22

BACKDOC

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#22
I think the decision to increase the pace and let the guards run is going to be a watershed moment with this team. They have really come alive in the past two games and shown an ability to get to the rim and finish or draw fouls. Even Vescovi found his way to the rim, last night. I’d like to see us do a MUCH better job of finishing at the rim (JJJ, especially). This Tennessee team misses more shots at the rim than any I can remember, and we aren’t great on the offensive boards, either, so we need to be more efficient. Shooting the 3 as effectively as we did certainly helps, though.
Bailey, and Johnson miss their fair share of layups also.
 
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#24

MinisterofDef#92

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#24
Been cruising through KenPom and Tennessee stats this year. I found three interesting one.

1. The turnover percentage isn’t as bad as you might think- Tennessee is at 17.3% which is actually 79th in the country. I thought that would be around 18-19%. I think the turnovers get exaggerated because they seem to make silly turnovers during bigger moments.

2. Getting to the line is crucial for this offense- In terms of offensive efficiency the numbers aren’t super pretty but one saving grace is Tennessee is 43rd in free throw rate. If you aren’t going to shoot and make a lot of 3’s (and Tennessee doesn’t) then getting to the line is a good consolation prize.

3. Tennessee’s defense is elite but one concern...- As we know Barnes, doesn’t mind giving up 3’s and living with the results. Usually Tennessee’s defensive 3 point percentage is higher. Right now teams are shooting 29.7% against Tennessee from 3, 25th in the country. Now, Tennessee is longer on defense and this is the best close out/recover team in Barnes’ tenure. But one issue could be if that number randomizes back to higher marks. Barnes’ teams at UT the previous five years give up around 34% (previous three years 33.4%). Tennessee will need to make sure they continue to push the pace and score to keep with teams that might shoot better against us.
As with many of our stats, the issue isn't our average because most of the time we play well. The issue is that in our losses we completely breakdown across many crucial statistical categories as shown below. Just shooting a consistent FT %'age and taking care of the ball would almost assuredly give us 2 more wins. The other issue with our turnovers is when and how they occur...it would be one thing to turn it over making a good aggressive drive to the basket but it is an entirely different matter altogether when you allow defenders to just take it from you when outside the lane and, too many times, not even dribbling (see OM and UGA).

I agree with point 3 but it seems to me that our perimeter defense is much more "in your face" than years past...just based on the eye test, it seems to me to be much more infrequent to see one of our defenders with the running leap defense from 12-15 ft as they try to close out to an open 3pt shooter (used to drive me crazy).

1613133175211.png
 
#25

VOLINVONORE

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#25
As with many of our stats, the issue isn't our average because most of the time we play well. The issue is that in our losses we completely breakdown across many crucial statistical categories as shown below. Just shooting a consistent FT %'age and taking care of the ball would almost assuredly give us 2 more wins. The other issue with our turnovers is when and how they occur...it would be one thing to turn it over making a good aggressive drive to the basket but it is an entirely different matter altogether when you allow defenders to just take it from you when outside the lane and, too many times, not even dribbling (see OM and UGA).

I agree with point 3 but it seems to me that our perimeter defense is much more "in your face" than years past...just based on the eye test, it seems to me to be much more infrequent to see one of our defenders with the running leap defense from 12-15 ft as they try to close out to an open 3pt shooter (used to drive me crazy).

View attachment 350823
The turn over rate can be easily be decreased . Many are just lazy passes in their offensive sets, fumbling the ball on drives to the basket, and doing a poor job of breaking the press. Realize that we do not have a true P G The guys bringing the ball up the court are really not PG and have shown they have little experience at that position. The will have to do better by tournament time or pack their bags lightly. With the best P G in the Country coming in next year, look forward to the best BB team we have had in a long time. An addition of a 5 player would be icing on the cake.
 

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