I wouldn't be so sure. Clemson, Big 10 champ, and SEC champ are probably 99% likely to be 3 of the 4 spots. And the committee seems to value conference Champs, rightly or wrongly.
Oregon has played a weak schedule so far but they will likely get a 1 loss Utah team in the Pac 12 championship. Utah likely has a tougher time regardless if they win out because they haven't played anyone that is currently ranked and their 1 loss was to a 4 loss USC team (could be 5 loss if they trip vs Cal or UCLA).
Baylor also controls their own destiny. They win out and they are in. And don't forget Oklahoma is still hanging around and has a chance to beat Baylor twice and be the Big 12 champ with 1 loss.
Bama also has to hope LSU beats UGA in SEC Championship game, because if UGA wins out and beats LSU in a tight game, the committee is all but guaranteed to select LSU over Bama in that scenario since LSU has the head to head win. Bama needs a lot of help to get into the Final 4, imo.