The Vandy Loss Sucks, but Let's Take a Look at Reality ...

#1
DiderotsGhost

DiderotsGhost

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#1
This was always going to be a down year.

Sorry, folks, but I called it at the beginning of the season. I said back then that 7-5 or 8-4 was the expectation. The reasons why:

* Loss of key defensive players to NFL Draft. We lost James Pearce Jr and Omar Norman-Lott. 2 players who were always going to be difficult to replace
* Key defensive injuries. What hurt even more was all the injuries - Jermod McCoy, Ricky Gibson, Arion Carter, and Jaxson Moi. Our secondary was really held together by duct tape this season and did better than expected. I'm particularly encouraged by the emergence of Ty Redmond.
* Nico defection. Look, we can all agree that Joey was better than Nico. But it's also rare for a QB to come in late in the Spring and thrive in Year 1, no matter how "senior" they are --- normally these types of QBs don't thrive till Year 2. The brutal truth ... we lost the Alabama game back in 2021 when Bama landed Ty Simpson over us. But we've landed G-Mac and Faizon Brandon in back-to-back classes now.
* Tougher schedule than anticipated. Everyone thought we had an easy schedule at the beginning of the season. Turns out, a lot of those teams were much better than expected. We played 3 top 10 teams; arguably 4 if you count Vandy. We ended up with an unexpectedly polarized schedule.
* Youngest team we've had in years. For whatever reason, everyone seemed to be ignoring this. This is one of our youngest teams in years. And it's tough to win in the SEC with a very young team.

I never expected this to be a CFP campaign type of season. It's honestly a miracle that if we hit a single FG, we're 9-3.

This isn't to suggest there shouldn't be changes. The defensive performance against Vandy was awful. But those who want to pull out the "FAHR EVERYONE!" playbook do more harm than good. Banks was, the prior 2 seasons, one of the best DCs in the country. We had the #4 ranked defense in America last year; and #21 in 2023.

We have one of our best recruiting classes in a long while coming in. We have a horde of promising young players. Expectations have risen again after the dismal Dooley/Jones/Pruitt triumvirate, but let's not go insane. Heupel took over a bad situation and turned the program into something again. This is a place people want to come.

I can't guarantee success, but I think burning down the house would be the worst thing possible right now.

GBO!
 
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#4
#4
Lost some DL to the NFL, a mediocre QB to an awful program, and have some freshman. Lost to every team with record over .500 and got taken behind the woodshed at home by Vandy. Pretty much what one should expect every so often. Rebuilding and whatnot.
 
#5
#5
DiderotsGhost said:
This was always going to be a down year.

Sorry, folks, but I called it at the beginning of the season. I said back then that 7-5 or 8-4 was the expectation. The reasons why:

* Loss of key defensive players to NFL Draft. We lost James Pearce Jr and Omar Norman-Lott. 2 players who were always going to be difficult to replace
* Key defensive injuries. What hurt even more was all the injuries - Jermod McCoy, Ricky Gibson, Arion Carter, and Jaxson Moi. Our secondary was really held together by duct tape this season and did better than expected. I'm particularly encouraged by the emergence of Ty Redmond.
* Nico defection. Look, we can all agree that Joey was better than Nico. But it's also rare for a QB to come in late in the Spring and thrive in Year 1, no matter how "senior" they are --- normally these types of QBs don't thrive till Year 2 (look at Heupel --- it was Year 2 that he thrived at Oklahoma). The brutal truth ... we lost the Alabama game back in 2021 when Bama landed Ty Simpson over us. But we've landed G-Mac and Faizon Brandon in back-to-back classes now.
* Tougher schedule than anticipated. Everyone thought we had an easy schedule at the beginning of the season. Turns out, a lot of those teams were much better than expected. We played 3 top 10 teams; arguably 4 if you count Vandy. We ended up with an unexpectedly polarized schedule.
* Youngest team we've had in years. For whatever reason, everyone seemed to be ignoring this. This is one of our youngest teams in years. And it's tough to win in the SEC with a very young team.

I never expected this to be a CFP campaign type of season. It's honestly a miracle that if we hit a single FG, we're 9-3.

This isn't to suggest there shouldn't be changes. The defensive performance against Vandy was awful. But those who want to pull out the "FAHR EVERYONE!" playbook do more harm than good. Banks was, the prior 2 seasons, one of the best DCs in the country. We had the #4 ranked defense in America last year; and #21 in 2023.

We have one of our best recruiting classes in a long while coming in. We have a horde of promising young players. Expectations have risen again after the dismal Dooley/Jones/Pruitt triumvirate, but let's not go insane. Heupel took over a bad situation and turned the program into something again. This is a place people want to come.

I can't guarantee success, but I think burning down the house would be the worst thing possible right now.

GBO!
Click to expand...
Regarding your last sentence, all you have to do is look at what Florida, Auburn, AR and Penn St are ending up with and it’s scary out there in terms of the head coaching pool. Some MAY turn out OK but it’s pretty scary.
 
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#8
#8
West Vol said:
Lost some DL to the NFL, a mediocre QB to an awful program, and have some freshman. Lost to every team with record over .500 and got taken behind the woodshed at home by Vandy. Pretty much what one should expect every so often. Rebuilding and whatnot.
Click to expand...
The problem wasn't losing Nico.

The problem was having to bring in a transfer at the last second. In the history of college football, it's pretty rare for QBs to succeed in that situation. Normally takes 2 seasons. Joey did so much better than expectations, but if he had come in early 2024, he probably would've been even better.
 
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#9
#9
Volhoops said:
The reality is Heupel got his butt handed to him by Vanderbilt at home. That's something that is extremely hard to over come. Has there been a coach that made it here after losing to Vanderbilt ?
Click to expand...
No but to be fair there has never been a Vandy team with a Heisman candidate 24 year old at qb. They should be in the playoff if they want the best teams.
 
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#10
#10
Delmar said:
Regarding your last sentence, all you have to do is look at what Florida, Auburn, AR and Penn St are ending up with and it’s scary out there in terms of the head coaching pool. Some MAY turn out OK but it’s pretty scary.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I’ve lost faith in the man, but I don’t think people realize this is a terrible market for coaches. If Florida had to settle for Sumrall, and Penn State is yet to even get a coach, our best bet would be Bob Chesney.
 
#11
#11
DiderotsGhost said:
The problem wasn't losing Nico.

The problem was having to bring in a transfer at the last second. In the history of college football, it's pretty rare for QBs to succeed in that situation. Normally takes 2 seasons. Joey did so much better than expectations, but if he had come in early 2024, he probably would've been even better.
Click to expand...
Yes he would have. Why didn’t we target another QB? Shouldn’t have been obvious Merk was inept, Nico wasn’t the phenom we’d hoped, and the only other option is fifty pounds under weight?
 
#13
#13
Skooter said:
No but to be fair there has never been a Vandy team with a Heisman candidate 24 year old at qb. They should be in the playoff if they want the best teams.
Click to expand...
Wait I thought Franklin had a QB, Jay Cutler that was a candidate? He did not win it but I thought he was in the race at one time.
 
#14
#14
West Vol said:
Yes he would have. Why didn’t we target another QB? Shouldn’t have been obvious Merk was inept, Nico wasn’t the phenom we’d hoped, and the only other option is fifty pounds under weight?
Click to expand...
To be frank, the staff likely overestimated Nico's maturity and ability to be molded.

Nico has all the tools to become one of the best QBs in the country and a #1 NFL draft pick. He lacked the maturity, focus, and work ethic. Which is why sometimes, guys like Joey the Fireman end up being better --- dude has had to fight for everything. If Nico had Joey's mentality, he'd a top QB right now.

I do wonder if this whole "recruiting high school QBs" is the smartest thing these days, when you can just wait a few years, and a poach a top 2- or 3-year college QB. Much easier to evaluate guys who have played 2-3 years in college than kids coming out of high school. Or at least use a mix of high school and transfer QBs.
 
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#15
#15
DiderotsGhost said:
This was always going to be a down year.

Sorry, folks, but I called it at the beginning of the season. I said back then that 7-5 or 8-4 was the expectation. The reasons why:

* Loss of key defensive players to NFL Draft. We lost James Pearce Jr and Omar Norman-Lott. 2 players who were always going to be difficult to replace
* Key defensive injuries. What hurt even more was all the injuries - Jermod McCoy, Ricky Gibson, Arion Carter, and Jaxson Moi. Our secondary was really held together by duct tape this season and did better than expected. I'm particularly encouraged by the emergence of Ty Redmond.
* Nico defection. Look, we can all agree that Joey was better than Nico. But it's also rare for a QB to come in late in the Spring and thrive in Year 1, no matter how "senior" they are --- normally these types of QBs don't thrive till Year 2. The brutal truth ... we lost the Alabama game back in 2021 when Bama landed Ty Simpson over us. But we've landed G-Mac and Faizon Brandon in back-to-back classes now.
* Tougher schedule than anticipated. Everyone thought we had an easy schedule at the beginning of the season. Turns out, a lot of those teams were much better than expected. We played 3 top 10 teams; arguably 4 if you count Vandy. We ended up with an unexpectedly polarized schedule.
* Youngest team we've had in years. For whatever reason, everyone seemed to be ignoring this. This is one of our youngest teams in years. And it's tough to win in the SEC with a very young team.

I never expected this to be a CFP campaign type of season. It's honestly a miracle that if we hit a single FG, we're 9-3.

This isn't to suggest there shouldn't be changes. The defensive performance against Vandy was awful. But those who want to pull out the "FAHR EVERYONE!" playbook do more harm than good. Banks was, the prior 2 seasons, one of the best DCs in the country. We had the #4 ranked defense in America last year; and #21 in 2023.

We have one of our best recruiting classes in a long while coming in. We have a horde of promising young players. Expectations have risen again after the dismal Dooley/Jones/Pruitt triumvirate, but let's not go insane. Heupel took over a bad situation and turned the program into something again. This is a place people want to come.

I can't guarantee success, but I think burning down the house would be the worst thing possible right now.

GBO!
Click to expand...
I’m with you on some of this. I didn’t truly expect a championship contending season of any sort. But you also have to have perspective. 0 wins against winning programs unless you count ETSU. Getting trounced by Vandy in the confines of neyland. 3 home losses. We got problems.
 
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#16
#16
DiderotsGhost said:
To be frank, the staff likely overestimated Nico's maturity and ability to be molded.

Nico has all the tools to become one of the best QBs in the country and a #1 NFL draft pick. He lacked the maturity, focus, and work ethic. Which is why sometimes, guys like Joey the Fireman end up being better --- dude has had to fight for everything. If Nico had Joey's mentality, he'd a top QB right now.

I do wonder if this whole "recruiting high school QBs" is the smartest thing these days, when you can just wait a few years, and a poach a top 2- or 3-year college QB. Much easier to evaluate guys who have played 2-3 years in college than kids coming out of high school. Or at least use a mix of high school and transfer QBs.
Click to expand...
Some guys can’t read a defense no matter how much they train or what god given physical talents they possess. Joe Milton comes to mind. Nico is probably in the same boat. We should have had a workable plan B. Merk was clearly never going to be an option.
 
#17
#17
And if we engineered the team to where year 3 of Nico was “always going to be a down year” that is some very bad planning. This should have been our year to make a run with the first round QB we thought we were getting when he committed in 2022.
 
#20
#20
HeuperDrive said:
Yeah, I’ve lost faith in the man, but I don’t think people realize this is a terrible market for coaches. If Florida had to settle for Sumrall, and Penn State is yet to even get a coach, our best bet would be Bob Chesney.
Click to expand...
How about Arky settling for Ryan Silverfield from Memphis? 🤦😂😂😂 A lot of their fans call him Ruin Silverfield. They’ll be dancing in the streets and Arkansas fans will be burning mattresses tonight.
 
#23
#23
If you bring back Banks and company and the defense struggles again next year (he's not had a good defense here more times than he's had a good one) it puts Heupel very firmly on a flaming hot seat in 2027.

It wasn't just fans upset with Banks this season, he got ripped to pieces by former players on the Vol Network after last nights game. The defense was last in the nation bad in some statistics. That's not acceptable. Last year was smoke and mirrors. Good offenses had little issue scoring and moving the ball but we were fortunate to play some bad offenses. It also showed that unless Banks has a stockpile of NFL type talent, he isn't just bad, he's a disaster.
 
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#24
#24
VolArmy74 said:
If you bring back Banks and company and the defense struggles again next year (he's not had a good defense here more times than he's had a good one) it puts Heupel very firmly on a flaming hot seat in 2027.

It wasn't just fans upset with Banks this season, he got ripped to pieces by former players on the Vol Network after last nights game. The defense was last in the nation bad in some statistics. That's not acceptable. Last year was smoke and mirrors. Good offenses had little issue scoring and moving the ball but we were fortunate to play some bad offenses. It also showed that unless Banks has a stockpile of NFL type talent, he isn't just bad, he's a disaster.
Click to expand...
If Banks comes back Heupel won’t survive next year. We can’t navigate that schedule with the 100th best defense.
 
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#25
#25
Volhoops said:
The reality is Heupel got his butt handed to him by Vanderbilt at home. That's something that is extremely hard to over come. Has there been a coach that made it here after losing to Vanderbilt ?
Click to expand...
Usually not for much longer. Although this Vandy team was their best ever so losing to them wasn’t a shock to anyone that had watched both these teams all year..
 
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