TNHopeful505
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I think that I can state something and be 100% accurate: Nick Saban has forever changed the expectations of success in college football. As we talk about potential coaching changes and other shifts, a lot of it is because we are constantly chasing the success that Saban has had at Alabama.
When Alabama hired Saban in 2007:
Tennessee had Fulmer as coach, and he was in his 15th year. Tennessee has since had Kiffin, Dooley, Jones, and Pruitt. They are a combined 0-13 against Saban since that time.
Vanderbilt had Bobby Johnson as coach, and he was in his 6th season there. He would go on to coach there for 9 years. Vanderbilt has since had James Franklin and Derek Mason, and now Lea. They are a combined 0-3 against Saban, scoring only 10 points total in those 3 meetings.
Arkansas had Houston Nutt as coach. He coached at Arkansas for a total of 10 years, and then an additional 4 at Ole Miss. Since then, Arkansas has had Bobby Petrino, Bret Bielema, Chad Morris, and Sam Pittman. They are a combined 0-14 against Saban at Alabama.
Ole Miss had Ed Orgeron as coach, who coached there for 3 years. They then had Houston Nutt, then Hugh Freeze, then Matt Luke, and now Lane Kiffin. Those coaches have all combined for 2-12 against Saban (the two wins coming by Hugh Freeze by a combined 12 points).
Mississippi State had Sylvester Croom, who was there for 5 years total. Then they had Dan Mullen, Joe Moorhead, and Mike Leach. Those coaches are a combined 1-13 against Saban at Alabama (Croom beat him in 2007).
Georgia of course had Mark Richt, who coached 15 years at Georgia. Then they had Kirby. They are 1-6 against Saban, with Richt beating him in 2007.
South Carolina had Steve Spurrier, and then Will Muschamp (and now Shane Beamer). Those 2 have only faced Saban 3 times, and have a record of 1-2 against him (Spurrier getting the one win in 2010)
LSU had Les Miles, who was there for 12 years, and then of course Orgeron took over. LSU is 4-11 against Saban, with Les Miles having 3 victories over him, and Orgeron having the 1 that came last year.
Auburn had Tommy Tuberville, who was there for 10 years, and then had Gene Chizik, and Gus Malzahn. The Auburn coaches are a combined 5-9 against Saban. 3 of those came from Malzahn, and 2 of them from Chizik.
What's my point with all of that?
Saban drastically changed the SEC. Specifically in the patience that we have to produce results.
You go from tenures of Fulmer (15 years), Richt (15 years), Miles (12 years), Nutt (10 years at Arkansas), Tuberville (10 years), to what we have today.
Eli Drinkwitz - Year 1
Sam Pittman - Year 1
Derek Mason - got 7 years before canned.
Will Muschamp - got 4 years at Florida, and was fired in year 5 at South Carolina
Jeremy Pruitt - Year 3
Lane Kiffin - Year 1
Gus Malzahn - got 8 years before fired.
Mark Stoops - Year 8
Mike Leach - Year 1
Jimbo Fisher - Year 3
Dan Mullen - Year 3 at Florida
Kirby Smart - Year 5 at Georgia
Ed Orgeron - Year 5 at LSU
Nick Saban - Year 14 at Alabama
Since Nick Saban has entered the SEC, every single team has changed coaches at least once. Some twice, some three times, and if we fire Pruitt, we will be the first team to fire coaches 5 times in that period. The longest tenured SEC coach outside of Saban is now Mark Stoops at Kentucky.
I say all of this to just wonder: Are we reacting so strongly to the "dynasty" that is Alabama football right now, that we are creating a damaging culture to college football?
Since 2007, 15 coaches have beaten Saban. Of those 15, only 5 of them currently hold coaching positions (Whittingham, Freeze, Swinney, Orgeron, and Miles). Sumlin and Malzahn just got fired. Meyer, Richt, Spurrier, Stoops, Croom, Bowden, Chizik, and Weatherbie are all "retired' or otherwise not coaching.
Since 2007, here are the only coaches to make the BCS Championship Game/ College Football Playoffs:
Jim Tressel (not coaching)
Les Miles (Kansas)
Urban Meyer (not coaching)
Bob Stoops (not coaching)
Mack Brown (North Carolina)
Chip Kelly (UCLA)
Brian Kelly (Notre Dame)
Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M)
Gus Malzahn (not coaching)
Mark Helfrich (not coaching)
Dabo Swinney (Clemson)
Mark Dantonio (Michigan State)
Chris Petersen (not coaching)
Ed Orgeron (LSU)
That's it. 14 plus Saban. 6 of those 15 are unemployed. Mack Brown was unemployed for a while, and has had moderate success at North Carolina. Chip Kelly has been a large disappointment at UCLA, having a 10-20 record. Helfrich is completely unemployed. Petersen is in administration now, as is Tressel.
My point is this.
We cannot compare ourselves to Alabama. Nor do we need to think that we can or will create anything close to what Saban has created at Alabama. I'm not writing this to say "Oh man, how great they are."
But I'm writing it to say, we have to be realistic about what success *normally* is. A highly successful coach might make the playoffs 2 times, maybe 3 during his career. To have a coach make the championship game 7 times is a once in a lifetime thing.
I'm also not saying this to excuse Pruitt. I do believe that the head coach of Tennessee is measured against what they do versus Georgia, Florida, and Alabama. I recognize fully that there is not anyone we can hire that will close in on Alabama (even the two most successful coaches in Malzahn and Miles against Bama still have losing records against him). But I do believe that we need a coach who HAS to close the gap against Florida and Georgia, and Pruitt thus far, has not done that. Could he if given more time? Well, today's Signing Day didn't give me much confidence in that.
So, what am I trying to say in this post? We have to realize that we are not in a "normal" football world. Never again will we have another coach that seemingly breathes out #1 recruiting classes, and that it's almost an automatic trip to the playoffs every year. Never again will there be a cyborg like Saban. He will retire as the greatest. If he ever retires. Dude may coach to be age 115, and then die after his 19th National Championship. You can hate his guts and still recognize that he has truly accomplished an insane amount in his career.
I think we have to recognize our place and time in history, and say that our goal right now is to just be competitive in the East. And to do that, is its own challenge. You can see how incredibly difficult it is to find a National Championship caliber coach. Or even how hard it is to find a coach that can make it to the playoffs. They are out there, but they're typically not unproven. And they're typically not "Hey, I was a coordinator this time last year, and now I'm a head coach!"
But I do believe because of the strength of our conference, and our dedication to excellence, if we can find a coach who can keep us competitive and win against Florida and Georgia (the only two teams that will ever matter in the East), then we can once again be relevant in the hunt for National Championships. I don't see anyone overtaking Saban until he is ready to step down, but once he is, the winner of the SEC will always be considered for a National Championship. Winning the East puts us in that conversation.
But if we are playing the long game, step number one has to be to beat Florida and Georgia. Which means, these things have to be our priorities:
1) We have to lock down our state. The state of Tennessee, simply by sheer numbers will never compare to the state of Georgia and Florida in talent. However, our state has seen a massive influx of talent in the past 5 years or so, due mainly to the new industry that has flooded specifically the Nashville and Memphis area. Tennessee does not have to compete with another instate school (Vandy...yeah right), however, this year, the Top 7 players in the state of Tennessee went elsewhere. You cannot win when your top talent is going to Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, or Ole Miss. You have to keep your in-state kids a priority, even if you don't believe they're a great fit. One thing Butch got right is that you have to promote the "brand" of Tennessee football. Pruitt did a good job of this last year, but failed miserably this year. We cannot let players like Ty Simpson and Jordan James get out of state and wind up somewhere else. We have to build and keep those relationship with Tennessee High Schools and coaches.
2) We have to focus on development. Tennessee has the ability to get the 5* players, but that is a chicken/egg argument. I believe right now, whether Pruitt is the coach next year, or some other coach, the starting point has to be the development of players. This was a glaring weakness under Butch, and it was quite simply a mark of utter stupidity this year with Pruitt. While COVID messed a lot of things up, there was no reason why Shrout at least didn't play more reps than he did, nor that Bailey wasn't at least given more before he was. Development has to continually happen, and it has to happen at every position. I believe that you have to prove you can win before you'll get the 5* players that truly change a program. This is why I've always loved coaches like Chris Petersen and Gary Patterson. They seem to always win without the superstar type players. They get players who buy in and work hard, and they develop them, and win games. 5* Players only make what you've already been doing easier and more effective.
3) We have to commit to stability and progress over instant success. We are not going to hire someone who is going to take this roster and win 15 games with it overnight. But I believe that if the University will find someone who will show continual progress and development, while promoting a positive culture within the program, then we will be moving in the right direction. I believe that if you would have asked many at the beginning of this year, Pruitt would have seemingly checked those boxes. Our defense was playing well, and we were on that win streak. Somehow, that has dropped off. It seems like our secondary has regressed, along with the rest of our defense, and we have an Offensive line that has not performed like we all expected. Again, COVID or not, it is what it is. I don't think that many have seen the progress we would like to have seen (including me) in many ways. But I also have to wonder if Pruitt will get another year due to the complications of the year. Either way, the football program is going to have to be rebuilt at a pace that is going to be too slow for many. That doesn't mean that we should accept losing seasons. It should mean that it is obvious to everyone that every year we are getting closer. I felt that way from Pruitt's year 1 to year 2. However, I have not felt any closer at all after this year.
Sorry for ranting. I am bored at work, and just had a lot of thoughts about where this program, and where the SEC is as a whole. I do not know whether or not Pruitt will be fired or retained. I don't know whether or not he will turn it around. The general feel that I get is that Pruitt is a guy who being a Head Coach sounded good to....until that first loss. Pruitt had been at successful programs his entire career. Hoover High School, then Alabama, then Florida State their NC year, then Georgia, then Bama again. The guy honestly has not had to deal with losing very much in his coaching career. He hasn't had to deal with the media very much outside of "Jeremy, your defense is amazing, tell us about all of the 5* NFL draft picks you have this year." He hasn't had to fight for recruits with a school that hasn't won a conference championship in over 10 years until now. He hasn't had to deal with the politics that a head coach deals with. He hasn't had to worry about radio shows, television appearances, fundraisers. And I just don't think that the Head Coaching life is what he thought it would be. Perhaps if he had been at a lower program first, it would be different, and he would have had the ability to grow into that role. But that's not what happened.
I think he loves his players, and he loves coaching. I think it's just the other things have gotten to be too much for him. And unfortunately, there's 3 options. He can either turn it around, and start winning (which would require a lot of humility and character change from him, including trusting his OC to do what needs to be done, or firing his OL coach). He can resign, which he won't do, because that would be giving up on his players. Or, he can shut down and just wait to be inevitably fired, and get his buyout, and try to do so with as much self-proclaimed integrity and dignity as possible. Then, I'm sure he would easily find another DC position at a SEC or ACC school. And would probably be just fine doing that.
I hate seeing our school like this, but I also hate the fact that despite now 4 coaches since Fulmer, we have yet to find anyone who just seems to genuinely love building a program and doing the hard work of rebuilding a program. Hopefully we get the next one right, and can start competing for the East sooner rather than later.
Again, sorry for the long post. I love the Vols. I sometimes wish I could cheer for someone else, but I'm stuck here for better or for worse.
When Alabama hired Saban in 2007:
Tennessee had Fulmer as coach, and he was in his 15th year. Tennessee has since had Kiffin, Dooley, Jones, and Pruitt. They are a combined 0-13 against Saban since that time.
Vanderbilt had Bobby Johnson as coach, and he was in his 6th season there. He would go on to coach there for 9 years. Vanderbilt has since had James Franklin and Derek Mason, and now Lea. They are a combined 0-3 against Saban, scoring only 10 points total in those 3 meetings.
Arkansas had Houston Nutt as coach. He coached at Arkansas for a total of 10 years, and then an additional 4 at Ole Miss. Since then, Arkansas has had Bobby Petrino, Bret Bielema, Chad Morris, and Sam Pittman. They are a combined 0-14 against Saban at Alabama.
Ole Miss had Ed Orgeron as coach, who coached there for 3 years. They then had Houston Nutt, then Hugh Freeze, then Matt Luke, and now Lane Kiffin. Those coaches have all combined for 2-12 against Saban (the two wins coming by Hugh Freeze by a combined 12 points).
Mississippi State had Sylvester Croom, who was there for 5 years total. Then they had Dan Mullen, Joe Moorhead, and Mike Leach. Those coaches are a combined 1-13 against Saban at Alabama (Croom beat him in 2007).
Georgia of course had Mark Richt, who coached 15 years at Georgia. Then they had Kirby. They are 1-6 against Saban, with Richt beating him in 2007.
South Carolina had Steve Spurrier, and then Will Muschamp (and now Shane Beamer). Those 2 have only faced Saban 3 times, and have a record of 1-2 against him (Spurrier getting the one win in 2010)
LSU had Les Miles, who was there for 12 years, and then of course Orgeron took over. LSU is 4-11 against Saban, with Les Miles having 3 victories over him, and Orgeron having the 1 that came last year.
Auburn had Tommy Tuberville, who was there for 10 years, and then had Gene Chizik, and Gus Malzahn. The Auburn coaches are a combined 5-9 against Saban. 3 of those came from Malzahn, and 2 of them from Chizik.
What's my point with all of that?
Saban drastically changed the SEC. Specifically in the patience that we have to produce results.
You go from tenures of Fulmer (15 years), Richt (15 years), Miles (12 years), Nutt (10 years at Arkansas), Tuberville (10 years), to what we have today.
Eli Drinkwitz - Year 1
Sam Pittman - Year 1
Derek Mason - got 7 years before canned.
Will Muschamp - got 4 years at Florida, and was fired in year 5 at South Carolina
Jeremy Pruitt - Year 3
Lane Kiffin - Year 1
Gus Malzahn - got 8 years before fired.
Mark Stoops - Year 8
Mike Leach - Year 1
Jimbo Fisher - Year 3
Dan Mullen - Year 3 at Florida
Kirby Smart - Year 5 at Georgia
Ed Orgeron - Year 5 at LSU
Nick Saban - Year 14 at Alabama
Since Nick Saban has entered the SEC, every single team has changed coaches at least once. Some twice, some three times, and if we fire Pruitt, we will be the first team to fire coaches 5 times in that period. The longest tenured SEC coach outside of Saban is now Mark Stoops at Kentucky.
I say all of this to just wonder: Are we reacting so strongly to the "dynasty" that is Alabama football right now, that we are creating a damaging culture to college football?
Since 2007, 15 coaches have beaten Saban. Of those 15, only 5 of them currently hold coaching positions (Whittingham, Freeze, Swinney, Orgeron, and Miles). Sumlin and Malzahn just got fired. Meyer, Richt, Spurrier, Stoops, Croom, Bowden, Chizik, and Weatherbie are all "retired' or otherwise not coaching.
Since 2007, here are the only coaches to make the BCS Championship Game/ College Football Playoffs:
Jim Tressel (not coaching)
Les Miles (Kansas)
Urban Meyer (not coaching)
Bob Stoops (not coaching)
Mack Brown (North Carolina)
Chip Kelly (UCLA)
Brian Kelly (Notre Dame)
Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M)
Gus Malzahn (not coaching)
Mark Helfrich (not coaching)
Dabo Swinney (Clemson)
Mark Dantonio (Michigan State)
Chris Petersen (not coaching)
Ed Orgeron (LSU)
That's it. 14 plus Saban. 6 of those 15 are unemployed. Mack Brown was unemployed for a while, and has had moderate success at North Carolina. Chip Kelly has been a large disappointment at UCLA, having a 10-20 record. Helfrich is completely unemployed. Petersen is in administration now, as is Tressel.
My point is this.
We cannot compare ourselves to Alabama. Nor do we need to think that we can or will create anything close to what Saban has created at Alabama. I'm not writing this to say "Oh man, how great they are."
But I'm writing it to say, we have to be realistic about what success *normally* is. A highly successful coach might make the playoffs 2 times, maybe 3 during his career. To have a coach make the championship game 7 times is a once in a lifetime thing.
I'm also not saying this to excuse Pruitt. I do believe that the head coach of Tennessee is measured against what they do versus Georgia, Florida, and Alabama. I recognize fully that there is not anyone we can hire that will close in on Alabama (even the two most successful coaches in Malzahn and Miles against Bama still have losing records against him). But I do believe that we need a coach who HAS to close the gap against Florida and Georgia, and Pruitt thus far, has not done that. Could he if given more time? Well, today's Signing Day didn't give me much confidence in that.
So, what am I trying to say in this post? We have to realize that we are not in a "normal" football world. Never again will we have another coach that seemingly breathes out #1 recruiting classes, and that it's almost an automatic trip to the playoffs every year. Never again will there be a cyborg like Saban. He will retire as the greatest. If he ever retires. Dude may coach to be age 115, and then die after his 19th National Championship. You can hate his guts and still recognize that he has truly accomplished an insane amount in his career.
I think we have to recognize our place and time in history, and say that our goal right now is to just be competitive in the East. And to do that, is its own challenge. You can see how incredibly difficult it is to find a National Championship caliber coach. Or even how hard it is to find a coach that can make it to the playoffs. They are out there, but they're typically not unproven. And they're typically not "Hey, I was a coordinator this time last year, and now I'm a head coach!"
But I do believe because of the strength of our conference, and our dedication to excellence, if we can find a coach who can keep us competitive and win against Florida and Georgia (the only two teams that will ever matter in the East), then we can once again be relevant in the hunt for National Championships. I don't see anyone overtaking Saban until he is ready to step down, but once he is, the winner of the SEC will always be considered for a National Championship. Winning the East puts us in that conversation.
But if we are playing the long game, step number one has to be to beat Florida and Georgia. Which means, these things have to be our priorities:
1) We have to lock down our state. The state of Tennessee, simply by sheer numbers will never compare to the state of Georgia and Florida in talent. However, our state has seen a massive influx of talent in the past 5 years or so, due mainly to the new industry that has flooded specifically the Nashville and Memphis area. Tennessee does not have to compete with another instate school (Vandy...yeah right), however, this year, the Top 7 players in the state of Tennessee went elsewhere. You cannot win when your top talent is going to Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, or Ole Miss. You have to keep your in-state kids a priority, even if you don't believe they're a great fit. One thing Butch got right is that you have to promote the "brand" of Tennessee football. Pruitt did a good job of this last year, but failed miserably this year. We cannot let players like Ty Simpson and Jordan James get out of state and wind up somewhere else. We have to build and keep those relationship with Tennessee High Schools and coaches.
2) We have to focus on development. Tennessee has the ability to get the 5* players, but that is a chicken/egg argument. I believe right now, whether Pruitt is the coach next year, or some other coach, the starting point has to be the development of players. This was a glaring weakness under Butch, and it was quite simply a mark of utter stupidity this year with Pruitt. While COVID messed a lot of things up, there was no reason why Shrout at least didn't play more reps than he did, nor that Bailey wasn't at least given more before he was. Development has to continually happen, and it has to happen at every position. I believe that you have to prove you can win before you'll get the 5* players that truly change a program. This is why I've always loved coaches like Chris Petersen and Gary Patterson. They seem to always win without the superstar type players. They get players who buy in and work hard, and they develop them, and win games. 5* Players only make what you've already been doing easier and more effective.
3) We have to commit to stability and progress over instant success. We are not going to hire someone who is going to take this roster and win 15 games with it overnight. But I believe that if the University will find someone who will show continual progress and development, while promoting a positive culture within the program, then we will be moving in the right direction. I believe that if you would have asked many at the beginning of this year, Pruitt would have seemingly checked those boxes. Our defense was playing well, and we were on that win streak. Somehow, that has dropped off. It seems like our secondary has regressed, along with the rest of our defense, and we have an Offensive line that has not performed like we all expected. Again, COVID or not, it is what it is. I don't think that many have seen the progress we would like to have seen (including me) in many ways. But I also have to wonder if Pruitt will get another year due to the complications of the year. Either way, the football program is going to have to be rebuilt at a pace that is going to be too slow for many. That doesn't mean that we should accept losing seasons. It should mean that it is obvious to everyone that every year we are getting closer. I felt that way from Pruitt's year 1 to year 2. However, I have not felt any closer at all after this year.
Sorry for ranting. I am bored at work, and just had a lot of thoughts about where this program, and where the SEC is as a whole. I do not know whether or not Pruitt will be fired or retained. I don't know whether or not he will turn it around. The general feel that I get is that Pruitt is a guy who being a Head Coach sounded good to....until that first loss. Pruitt had been at successful programs his entire career. Hoover High School, then Alabama, then Florida State their NC year, then Georgia, then Bama again. The guy honestly has not had to deal with losing very much in his coaching career. He hasn't had to deal with the media very much outside of "Jeremy, your defense is amazing, tell us about all of the 5* NFL draft picks you have this year." He hasn't had to fight for recruits with a school that hasn't won a conference championship in over 10 years until now. He hasn't had to deal with the politics that a head coach deals with. He hasn't had to worry about radio shows, television appearances, fundraisers. And I just don't think that the Head Coaching life is what he thought it would be. Perhaps if he had been at a lower program first, it would be different, and he would have had the ability to grow into that role. But that's not what happened.
I think he loves his players, and he loves coaching. I think it's just the other things have gotten to be too much for him. And unfortunately, there's 3 options. He can either turn it around, and start winning (which would require a lot of humility and character change from him, including trusting his OC to do what needs to be done, or firing his OL coach). He can resign, which he won't do, because that would be giving up on his players. Or, he can shut down and just wait to be inevitably fired, and get his buyout, and try to do so with as much self-proclaimed integrity and dignity as possible. Then, I'm sure he would easily find another DC position at a SEC or ACC school. And would probably be just fine doing that.
I hate seeing our school like this, but I also hate the fact that despite now 4 coaches since Fulmer, we have yet to find anyone who just seems to genuinely love building a program and doing the hard work of rebuilding a program. Hopefully we get the next one right, and can start competing for the East sooner rather than later.
Again, sorry for the long post. I love the Vols. I sometimes wish I could cheer for someone else, but I'm stuck here for better or for worse.
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