The presumption is UT in a yawner ....

#1
lawgator1

lawgator1

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#1
Here's my overall "take" on the big picture for the UT-Cal game.

1) UT absolutely smoked Cal last year. The difference in speed and athletic ability was as tangible and apparent to everyone as I have ever seen in a game featuring two Top 25 programs.

2) While there was surely some homefield advantage to UT last year, its not like the reverse sets up to be true this year. I just don't think that UT will be the least bit intimidated by the Cal stadium or fans and, should UT go out to a commanding lead again, there'll be crickets in the Bay area.

3) UT's losses from this year to last don't seem as critical as Cal's, witht he possible exception of Meachem. But given that UT's offense should feature a better running game and that UT's defense should still be way past what Cal is used to, I don't see a big drop off for UT.

I guess I'm just saying that, given the enormous disparity last year in talent, why would anyone diverge from the presumption that UT ought to win another yawner? Could they lose it? Sure. But if you are making predicitons, how do you go with Cal until they prove they can hang with the likes of UT?
 
#3
#3
eloist said:
for the first time in my life, i completely agree with a Gator.
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Thanks but its nothing special. I'm just not seeing how folks think things will have turned around so much when there isn't a basis in fact to think it. I mean, had UT won last year by 17 by beating Cal out in close plays, that would be one thing. But it just wasn't even close.
 
#9
#9
IMO the disparity between TN's WR/DB group and Cal's was what made the game the way it was. Tedford ended up having to pass out of the gate and not run Lynch, who got about 1/3 as many carries as he should have.

That mismatch made the game lopsided before it even began... We never saw what Cal could do because they were playing catchup the whole game. And I don't know if we'll have that advantage this year. Not to mention the crowd. Nate Longshore's comments really brought it home. This game is hard to predict. I still picked us to win, but I could easily see it being by a TD or less.

And another thing I don't get is why, why WHY isn't UT playing for SEC pride? The general attitude I've been catching around here sucks. If we win, we just reinforce the Pac-10's inferiority, but if we lose then it doesn't prove anything about the SEC, rather that we've just got a long year ahead of us.

In the eyes of the nation, a Cal win would be a good step forward in proving the Pac-10's legitimacy. It's a two-way road.
 
#10
#10
lawgator1 said:
Just ask tOSU.
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Nah i think i'll talk to penn state or wisconsin. That cal team that showed up against Tenn wouldn't have won 3 games in ANY bcs conference let alone the pac-10. I seem to remember the vols getting blown out by georgia one year and beating them the next. STuff happens in college football. My $.02.
 
#15
#15
As far as SEC power goes I think the SEC is the strongest overall. But I also think many will be suprised at the OSU/Georgia game.
 
#16
#16
droski said:
Nah i think i'll talk to penn state or wisconsin. That cal team that showed up against Tenn wouldn't have won 3 games in ANY bcs conference let alone the pac-10. I seem to remember the vols getting blown out by georgia one year and beating them the next. STuff happens in college football. My $.02.
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Come on now, Arkansas outgained Whisky by 200 yards.

:whistling:
 
#22
#22
droski said:
I bet you can count the number of cal games you have seen in your lifetime on one finger.
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droski said:
Nah i think i'll talk to penn state or wisconsin. That cal team that showed up against Tenn wouldn't have won 3 games in ANY bcs conference let alone the pac-10. I seem to remember the vols getting blown out by georgia one year and beating them the next. STuff happens in college football. My $.02.
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Both statements are true. But note that I said it is surely possible that Cal wins, but how can you make them a favorite given last year's game? These are not truly independent events, i.e. the turn of a roulette wheel.

When you play a year later and there isn't much basis for seeing a change in overall talent, I'm just not seeing a basis for a presumption in Cal's favor. To the contrary, the percentages would seem squarely on the side of UT.
 
#23
#23
lawgator1 said:
Both statements are true. But note that I said it is surely possible that Cal wins, but how can you make them a favorite given last year's game? These are not truly independent events, i.e. the turn of a roulette wheel.

When you play a year later and there isn't much basis for seeing a change in overall talent, I'm just not seeing a basis for a presumption in Cal's favor. To the contrary, the percentages would seem squarely on the side of UT.
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there is a HUGE difference between saying Cal should not be favored because of last year and saying that the game will be a yawner because of last year.
 
#24
#24
droski said:
there is a HUGE difference between saying Cal should not be favored because of last year and saying that the game will be a yawner because of last year.
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mmmmm.... Well, neither one is quite what I said. What I said was that the presumption should be UT in a yawner. That is not nearly the same as saying that the game will be a yawner.

Sublte difference, I'd agree. But its what I meant. Given last year, my expectation is UT to win easily and I'm sort of waiting to see if I'm right.

I've been wrong before. I thought UF had little to no chance versus tOSU. Similarly, I'd have thought we beat Vandy by a zillion and we needed OT to get the W.

Its a game and the ball is shaped all funny-like. But I still like UT a ton in this game.
 
#25
#25
lawgator1 said:
mmmmm.... Well, neither one is quite what I said. What I said was that the presumption should be UT in a yawner. That is not nearly the same as saying that the game will be a yawner.

Sublte difference, I'd agree. But its what I meant. Given last year, my expectation is UT to win easily and I'm sort of waiting to see if I'm right.

I've been wrong before. I thought UF had little to no chance versus tOSU. Similarly, I'd have thought we beat Vandy by a zillion and we needed OT to get the W.

Its a game and the ball is shaped all funny-like. But I still like UT a ton in this game.
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I'm not buying your niceness gator boy. I'm keeping my eye on you very closely. :detective:
 
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