Umm... okay, a lot to look at here, but ChatGPT's analysis of substitution patterns in the Kentucky game is startling, and suggests Kim may not be as far away from her system, at least in terms of frequent substitutions, if not wave substitutions as we thought. Keep going until you get to the analysis of Kentucky's substitution pattern to get the real impact.
TL/DR: KY's starting lineup played together for 22:51 and was +10. KY played 7 lineups. TN's longest lineup was 7:42 and -1. We played 21 different lineups - and won with the one-offs.
Here are minutes played (team-clock minutes) for each lineup code I used in the Kentucky wave report, plus each lineup’s cumulative +/- from Tennessee’s perspective (i.e., change in TENN–UK margin while that lineup was on the floor). Totals reconcile to a 40:00 game and a +2 final margin (60–58).
Named-code total: 26:36 of game time, net +/- = 0
X-lineups total: 13:24, net +/- = +2
Sign convention: +/- is from Kentucky’s perspective = change in UK − TENN margin while that 5-player unit was on the floor.
So positive = Kentucky won that stretch, negative = Tennessee won it.
TL/DR: KY's starting lineup played together for 22:51 and was +10. KY played 7 lineups. TN's longest lineup was 7:42 and -1. We played 21 different lineups - and won with the one-offs.
Here are minutes played (team-clock minutes) for each lineup code I used in the Kentucky wave report, plus each lineup’s cumulative +/- from Tennessee’s perspective (i.e., change in TENN–UK margin while that lineup was on the floor). Totals reconcile to a 40:00 game and a +2 final margin (60–58).
Named lineup codes
| Code | Minutes | +/- | Lineup |
|---|---|---|---|
| B | 7:42 | -1 | Alyssa Latham, Deniya Prawl, Jaida Civil, Mia Pauldo, Nya Robertson |
| C | 4:40 | +5 | Alyssa Latham, Deniya Prawl, Jaida Civil, Mia Pauldo, Talaysia Cooper |
| A | 3:08 | -3 | Kaniya Boyd, Lauren Hurst, Mya Pauldo, Talaysia Cooper, Zee Spearman |
| S | 2:55 | 0 | Alyssa Latham, Deniya Prawl, Mia Pauldo, Talaysia Cooper, Zee Spearman |
| D | 2:52 | +2 | Alyssa Latham, Kaniya Boyd, Mia Pauldo, Nya Robertson, Zee Spearman |
| CL | 2:24 | 0 | Alyssa Latham, Mia Pauldo, Nya Robertson, Talaysia Cooper, Zee Spearman |
| W | 1:29 | -1 | Jersey Wolfenbarger, Kaniya Boyd, Lauren Hurst, Mia Pauldo, Talaysia Cooper |
| E | 0:58 | -2 | Alyssa Latham, Jaida Civil, Mia Pauldo, Nya Robertson, Zee Spearman |
| A′ | 0:28 | 0 | Kaniya Boyd, Lauren Hurst, Mia Pauldo, Talaysia Cooper, Zee Spearman |
One-off lineups (X codes)
These are the “uncoded” combinations that showed up in the substitution log but weren’t part of the main code set.| Code | Minutes | +/- | Lineup |
|---|---|---|---|
| X10 | 3:53 | 0 | Deniya Prawl, Jaida Civil, Mia Pauldo, Nya Robertson, Zee Spearman |
| X11 | 3:08 | +2 | Deniya Prawl, Jaida Civil, Mia Pauldo, Talaysia Cooper, Zee Spearman |
| X8 | 1:05 | -1 | Alyssa Latham, Kaniya Boyd, Mia Pauldo, Mya Pauldo, Zee Spearman |
| X1 | 0:58 | +1 | Alyssa Latham, Deniya Prawl, Jaida Civil, Kaniya Boyd, Nya Robertson |
| X7 | 0:57 | 0 | Alyssa Latham, Jaida Civil, Mia Pauldo, Talaysia Cooper, Zee Spearman |
| X4 | 0:56 | 0 | Alyssa Latham, Deniya Prawl, Mia Pauldo, Nya Robertson, Talaysia Cooper |
| X5 | 0:51 | -3 | Alyssa Latham, Jaida Civil, Jersey Wolfenbarger, Mia Pauldo, Nya Robertson |
| X12 | 0:45 | +2 | Deniya Prawl, Jersey Wolfenbarger, Kaniya Boyd, Mia Pauldo, Talaysia Cooper |
| X2 | 0:19 | +1 | Alyssa Latham, Deniya Prawl, Jaida Civil, Mia Pauldo, Zee Spearman |
| X3 | 0:14 | 0 | Alyssa Latham, Deniya Prawl, Jaida Civil, Nya Robertson, Talaysia Cooper |
| X9 | 0:10 | 0 | Deniya Prawl, Jaida Civil, Jersey Wolfenbarger, Mia Pauldo, Talaysia Cooper |
| X6 | 0:08 | 0 | Alyssa Latham, Jaida Civil, Jersey Wolfenbarger, Mia Pauldo, Talaysia Cooper |
What this says (no sugar-coating)
- Tennessee won this game (+2) entirely in the “mixed/one-off” space: the X lineups were +2, while your “main code” lineups netted 0.
- The best sustained coded unit was C at +5 in 4:40.
- The biggest coded drag was A at -3 in 3:08.
Sign convention: +/- is from Kentucky’s perspective = change in UK − TENN margin while that 5-player unit was on the floor.
So positive = Kentucky won that stretch, negative = Tennessee won it.
Kentucky lineup codes
- K0 (Starters): Tonie Morgan, Asia Boone, Amelia Hassett, Jordan Obi, Clara Strack
- K1: Tonie Morgan, Lexi Blue, Amelia Hassett, Jordan Obi, Clara Strack
- K2: Tonie Morgan, Lexi Blue, Asia Boone, Amelia Hassett, Jordan Obi
- K3: Tonie Morgan, Lexi Blue, Kaelyn Carroll, Amelia Hassett, Clara Strack
- K4: Tonie Morgan, Lexi Blue, Asia Boone, Amelia Hassett, Clara Strack
- K5: Tonie Morgan, Lexi Blue, Asia Boone, Jordan Obi, Clara Strack
- K6: Lexi Blue, Kaelyn Carroll, Asia Boone, Amelia Hassett, Jordan Obi (no Morgan, no Strack)
Minutes played + cumulative +/-
| Code | Minutes | KY +/- |
|---|---|---|
| K0 | 22:51 | +10 |
| K1 | 6:51 | -2 |
| K2 | 4:31 | -5 |
| K3 | 2:09 | -3 |
| K4 | 1:36 | -2 |
| K5 | 1:17 | +2 |
| K6 | 0:45 | -2 |
What it says (bluntly)
- Kentucky’s starters (K0) were +10 in 22:51.
- Every other Kentucky unit combined was -12 in 17:09.
- Net: -2 overall, which matches the final (UK 58, TENN 60).
