The finish line

#7

TMvol10

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#7
Aurbuns schedule is trash. They played 1 ranked team during their OOC schedule and lost. In conference, they avoided playing LSU, Arkansas and Kentucky twice. We play all of those teams twice. If we had their schedule, we might be 22-2 as well. That has nothing to do with our schedule and the question from the OP, I just wanted to complain. With that said, I think we go 4-3, which puts us at 21-9. Our remaining schedule is brutal.
 
#10

VolPack22

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#10
We have the opportunity to finish as a 2 seed if we go 7-0 or 6-1, as long as other teams ahead of us slip up. We also have the opportunity to go 3-4 and finish as a 5 or 6 seed. I believe we finish somewhere in the middle at 4-3 or 5-2 and get a 3 seed.
 
#11

JMSqb11

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#11
7 games left. A bunch of tough games for sure, how many do we win? Love the Vols and everything around the program but I’m seeing 4-3 at best. What do you guys think?
I would not be surprised if we won them all. I also would not be surprised if we went 2-5.... That's how unpredictable this team is. If JJJ keeps this scoring heater going, we have 4 scorers.... I could literally see our defense have us hanging around in Auburn and UK games. I'm looking forward to seeing Uros vs Kessler.... Uros is ticking time bomb to get a flagrant
 
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#12

stonesk

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#12
4-3 is my thought. Could go 5-2 or 3-4 depending on hot/cold streaks we tend to go on. Hopefully, we stay hot and ride the momentum into the tourney.
 
#13

cncchris33

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#13
3-4 seems very unlikely, to me, just based on trends. Tennessee has not lost to a single team they shouldn't have, all year, so for the sake of argument, you call Vandy, Mizzou, and UGA wins. That gets you to 3. Going 3-4 would then mean we didn't win any of the 4 toss-ups. With 3 of those 4 games being home games, it seems unlikely that we'd drop them all, especially when we are undefeated at home, this year.

Again, anything is possible, but 3-4 seems like a worst-case scenario, to me. Expectation should be 4-3, and anything better is just gravy on top.
 
#14

savannahfan

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#14
Aurbuns schedule is trash. They played 1 ranked team during their OOC schedule and lost. In conference, they avoided playing LSU, Arkansas and Kentucky twice. We play all of those teams twice. If we had their schedule, we might be 22-2 as well. That has nothing to do with our schedule and the question from the OP, I just wanted to complain. With that said, I think we go 4-3, which puts us at 21-9. Our remaining schedule is brutal.
Like and agree with what you say, BUT I hope we can eck out 5-2 for the rest of the season.
 
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#15

bleedingTNorange

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#15
3-4 seems very unlikely, to me, just based on trends. Tennessee has not lost to a single team they shouldn't have, all year, so for the sake of argument, you call Vandy, Mizzou, and UGA wins. That gets you to 3. Going 3-4 would then mean we didn't win any of the 4 toss-ups. With 3 of those 4 games being home games, it seems unlikely that we'd drop them all, especially when we are undefeated at home, this year.

Again, anything is possible, but 3-4 seems like a worst-case scenario, to me. Expectation should be 4-3, and anything better is just gravy on top.
Yup, per team rankings 90% chance of 4-3 or better:
5-2 is 32.7%
6-1 is 28.6%
4-3 is 19.9%
7-0 is 10.5%
3-4 is 6.8%
 
#16

Kicker82

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#16
5-2 or 4-3 look to be the most likely outcome depending on if we can beat Kentucky or Auburn at home. Either way, that's a solid season and getting a double bye in the SEC Tournament and 6th seed or better in NCAA would be nice.
 
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#17

CAVPUT

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#17
7 games left. A bunch of tough games for sure, how many do we win? Love the Vols and everything around the program but I’m seeing 4-3 at best. What do you guys think?
4-3 would be my expectation....assuming we don't let Vandy sneak up on us. Don't like the matchup vs UK no matter where we play them. Pearl has Barnes' number so that's iffy at best. Arky? Maybe a split, but they've got it going right now. We'll be hard pressed to take any of those 4 unless we have one of those games where we're just shooting lights out.
 
#21

SN-A-C Orange

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#21
Auburn and KY are at home so I feel much better on those games, TBA will be loud and proud both games.....
1) It is less about home and more about the referees! I think they (the striped shirts) are more likely to determine a few of those games.
2) It is about matchups as much as teams ... you get a bad matchup and the un expected happens.
3) We cannot predict when a good night will occur. The game in Kentucky, they have not played like that since that night. You cannot account for those things statistically.
When a player or a team is "on" - the statistics prove worthless.
1644595961545.png
That is a pretty good night for TN ... except for TN free throws (and TO were 20) ... but those are insane numbers for KY. You cannot see those coming, nor predict them. They are statistical anomalies.

With that said, ...
3-4 seems very unlikely, to me, just based on trends. Tennessee has not lost to a single team they shouldn't have, all year, so for the sake of argument, you call Vandy, Mizzou, and UGA wins. That gets you to 3. Going 3-4 would then mean we didn't win any of the 4 toss-ups. With 3 of those 4 games being home games, it seems unlikely that we'd drop them all, especially when we are undefeated at home, this year.

Again, anything is possible, but 3-4 seems like a worst-case scenario, to me. Expectation should be 4-3, and anything better is just gravy on top.
I guess I have gravy in my future ...
VY - They won last two at home and gave Ky fits in Rupp, but they struggle against good defensive teams. They have an extra day of rest, this is not a cake walk. Win 1-0 Match our longest win streak of the year.
KY - They have won their last two games on the road, SC and VY both game them fits. Ky will be confident. They want to steal a road game, mid week game. Win 2-0
AR - They are back home after games on the road. They beat a depleted AU at home. But they have dropped games at home. We start a road trip. Toss-up. Lose 2-1 (My heart says, "Win" - Head, not so much)
MZ - This will be their 4th game in a week. We are playing them after 2 games with MS. That is asking a whole lot from the MZ team. Win 3-1
AU - The barn comes in on a 4 game win streak. Fully healthy. We are defending home court. This is a toss up. We hold serve. Win 4-1 (My head says, "Win" - But the rest of me is saying, "No SMH!")
GA - They are looking for some Cinderalla magic, but all I see is pumpkins. Win 5-1
AR - This is brutal stretch for Arky, .. TN, FL(road), KY, LSU, and now back to TN(road). We defend the home court yet again. Win 6-1

That would be 23-7 (SEC seeding: 2nd) or possibly 22-8 (SEC seeding: 3rd) In either case, we will be bracketed with KY for a rematch.
This is my GUESS ... and while I am scrying into the crystal ball .... I see a technical in Uros' future. :^))))))))))
I love him, but he does have a temper. He keeps knocking people to the ground and he is going to pick up fouls like a lint roller.
 
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