THE DECLINE

[WA_Vol]

Originally posted by volinbham@Oct 25, 2005 12:12 PM
To have an accurate comparison, we also need to look at how the other top SEC teams have faired against each other and against the top 10.

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I will say this. Georgia fired their 2 previous head coaches for repeatedly finishing 3rd in the sec east behind UT and Florida.

Florida did the same thing when they got rid of zook last year, who couldn't finish ahead of UT and Ga.

IMO, judging from this year, we will be the team most likely finishing 3rd behind Ga and FL in the future.

I'm not sure how many years it took to fire Goff and Donelly, I think it was around 5 years. I suspect Fulmer will get at least 5 years as well.

So I think we got to look forward to about 4 more years of consistently finishing behind the leaders in the SEC (Fl and GA) before Fulmer would have to look for another job.

In hindsight, its obvious Ga made the right move. The jury is still out on Myer.

 

[TBALLVOL]

Fulmer will never be fired nor will he ever coach at another school. He will retire from UT and or be moved up into administration. IMO

 

[Liper]

Originally posted by oklavol@Oct 25, 2005 11:32 AM
I will say this. Georgia fired their 2 previous head coaches for repeatedly finishing 3rd in the sec east behind UT and Florida.

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Ah hah! Great point, and exactly where I was headed.

It's precisely these issues that caused these other schools to fire their coaches.

I'm not advocating we replace Foulmer...not yet. My overall theme is that we have a poor staff - and we don't get much out of our talent. Fulmer's record against other teams with good talent bears that out.

Foulmer's not incompetent, so we're not saying that either. But he is stubborn, arrogant, and delusional about his own abilities and the success he has had (or lack thereof). He doesn't even contemplate that part of our problem might be coaching. And to fix a problem, you have to admit there is one.

 

[allvol]

Originally posted by Liper@Oct 25, 2005 9:58 AM
I don't think anyone expects to compete for national title every year.  I hear a lot of defenders assert this, but I never hear it said by anyone other than them.  This is a straw man argument.

Losing back to back peach bowls is what we bitch about.  Losing five out of six to UGA is what we bitch about.  One top 10 finish since 1998 is what we bitch about.  No BCS Bowl wins since 1998 is what we bitch about.  No where in that series of gripes is anything about a national championship. 

I think what we expect is to be in the mix of teams on a consistent basis for the SEC and the top tier of teams nationally.  We have top 5 talent, we ought to produce some better teams.  NC's are rare for anyone.  But being in the group is not unreasonable.  However, when you do have some rare talent, you need to take care of business.

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read into my comments what you want, but what i was saying was a positive .... that Fulmer has raised the program expectations through his early career achievements. i was not discussing what fans are bitching about. And yes, the Vols were in the nation title hunt in '97, '99, and '01... not to mention winning it in '98. so 4 out of 5 seasons, the Vols WERE in a national title hunt. I think that just makes the other things you mentioned even harder to swallow.... but all these expectations were increased late in the Johnny Majors era and on into the Phil Fulmer era.

 

[allvol]

Originally posted by Liper@Oct 25, 2005 9:52 AM
We had the most players of any school drafted after the 2000 season.  We had three first round draft choices after the 2001 season.  We'll have another 2-4 first round draft choices this year (depending on Allen, but he IS a 1st round talent).  We had a lot of players off of the 2003 drafted as well, even though the majority of the talent were underclassmen.

I am not one of these "but he was a 5-star recruit" morons.  I used to follow recruiting quite closely and understand how it works.  I am, as you are, more interested in how good those players turn out to be.

BTW, Pat Washington and Fulmer have completely indicted themselves with the WRs.  Washington said that Hannon's problem is route running.  Huh?  He is a 5th year senior.  Does Washington not realize what that means?  Fulmer said the WRs are not giving enough effort and that their routes are not sharp enough or consistent enough.  THIS IS AN ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS PROPOSITION.  CEDRIC WILSON SAID AS MUCH!

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I was trying to point out the draft of the last 3 years, which is where the Vols have appeared to have dropped a bit in the national scene. The Vols were in the national title hunt 4 out of 5 seasons from '97 to '01, so I would expect alot of draft picks from then. I just wanted somebody to list the players and the round numbers from the players drafted from '02-'04. Those seem to be the UT teams that have underachieved based upon expectations, but what I believe is actually a lower level of talent than what the Vols had from '97-'01.

 

[Liper]

Originally posted by allvol@Oct 25, 2005 11:52 AM
I was trying to point out the draft of the last 3 years, which is where the Vols have appeared to have dropped a bit in the national scene.  The Vols were in the national title hunt 4 out of 5 seasons from '97 to '01, so I would expect alot of draft picks from then.  I just wanted somebody to list the players and the round numbers from the players drafted from '02-'04.  Those seem to be the UT teams that have underachieved based upon expectations, but what I believe is actually a lower level of talent than what the Vols had from '97-'01.

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You make some fair points, I'll grant you. I didn't intend to come off shouting - just clarifying.

You seem to be making the same arguments Fulmer makes. He always we "were a game away...a post pattern away...a few plays here or there"; and then I look and we lost 3 games and won nothing.

In 1999, we were in the mix AT ONE POINT. But then, a lot of teams, are. When I look back, I see a team that lost to two INFERIOR TEMAS (FL and ARK) and got destroyed by a good but not great Nebraska team. I could handle losing to Nebraska, but we did what we often do, and that's lay an egg.

In 1997, we were in the mix. It was a good year. We won an SEC title. But the fact remains that the two best teams on our schedule that year EMABARASSED US TO THE POINT OF UTTER HUMILIATION! I mean, the way we lost to FL and NEB that year was AN ABOMINATION WITHOUT EXCUSE! Those types of meltdowns infuriate me almost as much as anything. But I still appreciate the year because of the SEC.

In 2001, we lost to...TWO INFERIOR TEAMS...AND WON NOTHING. So yes, we accomplished some things like beating FL at the swamp and getting ourselves in the mix. Overall, a good year - and the only top 10 finish since 1998.

Here are our draft picks over the last three seasons. They look pretty darn strong to me. A heck of a lot better than a .700 winning%:

2004 Pos Rd Pick Team
Gibril Wilson DB 5 136 Giants
Troy Fleming RB 6 191 Titans
Mark Jones WR 7 206 Bucs
Scott Wells C 7 251 Packers

2003 Pos Rd Pick Team
Eddie Moore LB 2 49 Dolphins
Kelly Washiington WR 3 65 Bengals
Jason Whitten TE 3 69 Cowboys
Julian Battle DB 3 92 Chiefs
Aubrao Franklin DT 5 146 Ravens
Keyon Whiteside LB 5 162 Colts
Rashad Moore DT 6 183 Seahawks
Demetrin Veal DE 7 238 Falcons

2002 Pos Rd Pick Team
John Henderson DT 1 9 Jaguars
Donte Stallworth WR 1 13 Saints
Albert Haynesworth DT 1 15 Titans
Fred Weary OG 3 66 Texans
Will Overstreet DE 3 80 Falcons
Traphis Stephens RB 4 119 Bucs
Andre Lott DB 5 159 Redskins
Reggie Coleman OT 6 192 Redskiins
Teddy Gaines DB 7 256 49ers
Dominque Stevenson LB 7 260 Bills

 

[kiddiedoc]

Originally posted by allvol@Oct 25, 2005 11:52 AM
from '02-'04.  Those seem to be the UT teams that have underachieved based upon expectations

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Do you consider '04 an underachieving team, given expectations? Losses to only a ridiculously-stacked "shoulda-woulda-coulda-been National Champion" Auburn and the Domers after consecutive-game injuries to our "co-QB's".

Don't forget, we gave the Barners a run for their money in the SECCG, too.

 

[allvol]

Originally posted by Liper@Oct 25, 2005 12:13 PM
You make some fair points, I'll grant you.  I didn't intend to come off shouting - just clarifying.

You seem to be making the same arguments Fulmer makes.  He always we "were a game away...a post pattern away...a few plays here or there"; and then I look and we lost 3 games and won nothing.

In 1999, we were in the mix AT ONE POINT.  But then, a lot of teams, are.  When I look back, I see a team that lost to two INFERIOR TEMAS (FL and ARK) and got destroyed by a good but not great Nebraska team.  I could handle losing to Nebraska, but we did what we often do, and that's lay an egg.

In 1997, we were in the mix.  It was a good year.  We won an SEC title.  But the fact remains that the two best teams on our schedule that year EMABARASSED US TO THE POINT OF UTTER HUMILIATION!  I mean, the way we lost to FL and NEB that year was AN ABOMINATION WITHOUT EXCUSE!  Those types of meltdowns infuriate me almost as much as anything.  But I still appreciate the year because of the SEC.

In 2001, we lost to...TWO INFERIOR TEAMS...AND WON NOTHING.  So yes, we accomplished some things like beating FL at the swamp and getting ourselves in the mix.  Overall, a good year - and the only top 10 finish since 1998.

Here are our draft picks over the last three seasons.  They look pretty darn strong to me.  A heck of a lot better than a .700 winning%:

2004 Pos Rd Pick Team
Gibril Wilson DB 5 136 Giants
Troy Fleming RB 6 191 Titans
Mark Jones WR 7 206 Bucs
Scott Wells C 7 251 Packers

2003 Pos Rd Pick Team
Eddie Moore LB 2 49 Dolphins
Kelly Washiington WR 3 65 Bengals
Jason Whitten TE 3 69 Cowboys
Julian Battle DB 3 92 Chiefs
Aubrao Franklin DT 5 146 Ravens
Keyon Whiteside LB 5 162 Colts
Rashad Moore DT 6 183 Seahawks
Demetrin Veal DE 7 238 Falcons

2002 Pos Rd Pick Team
John Henderson DT 1 9 Jaguars
Donte Stallworth WR 1 13 Saints
Albert Haynesworth DT 1 15 Titans
Fred Weary OG 3 66 Texans
Will Overstreet DE 3 80 Falcons
Traphis Stephens RB 4 119 Bucs
Andre Lott DB 5 159 Redskins
Reggie Coleman OT 6 192 Redskiins
Teddy Gaines DB 7 256 49ers
Dominque Stevenson LB 7 260 Bills

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Thanks for the data.

my point was to compare the talent from previous seasons to the last 3. In my opinion, the last 3 drafts, the Vols talent level has dropped... no 1st round draft selection in the last 3 drafts you failed to list the last draft. the 2002 draft included the 2001 team that almost played in the Rose Bowl.

As far as bemoaning the fact that the Vols were in the national title hunt as late as November in 4 of 5 seasons... you really don't get it do you? Prior to Fulmer coming to UT, the Vols had not been on the hunt for a national title since the 1960's.

In 1997, the Vols were playing in the Bowl Alliance Championship game against #2 Nebraska. Had Washington State beaten #1 Michigan in the Rose Bowl, the Vols would have been playing for the NC. However, with nothing to play for and an injured QB, the Vols lost to a great Nebraska team.

In 1998, the Vols DID win the National Title.

In 1999, had the Vols beaten a good Arkansas team on the road on Nov 13, the Vols would have risen to #2 in the BCS rankings.

And in 2001, the Vols were one 4th quarter away from playing in the BCS title game.

As a fan, it was great to have the Vols in the national title mix each season of those seasons. I'm not one of those fans that thinks the Vols should win 100% of their games... so I am happy when they do win. I actually feel sorry for the fans that still can't enjoy a win because the team did not win it the right way.

 

[allvol]

Originally posted by kiddiedoc@Oct 25, 2005 12:46 PM
Do you consider '04 an underachieving team, given expectations?  Losses to only a ridiculously-stacked "shoulda-woulda-coulda-been National Champion" Auburn and the Domers after consecutive-game injuries to our "co-QB's".

Don't forget, we gave the Barners a run for their money in the SECCG, too.

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depends on if you are talking about my expectations or the expectations of the few posters in here that expect Tennessee to win games 50-0, 100% of the time.

I thought the coaching staff did a great job last season. However, from reading this board, you would think that the Vols had the talent and should have destroyed all other teams. :crazy:

 

[orangetd88]

allvol, one correction there...in 1999, UT actually DID rise to #2 in the BCS before losing to Arkansas.

 

[smokedog#3]

with the kind of talent we have at tennessee fulmer's record should atleast be even or above. in the big games he is outcoached. the 2001 sec championship against lsu comes to mind. that is the reason i give south carolina a good shot at knocking us off saturday. i think spurrier could put together a decent enough game plan to beat us. he kept the game close when they played georgia.

 

[Liper]

Originally posted by allvol@Oct 25, 2005 12:52 PM
Thanks for the data.

my point was to compare the talent from previous seasons to the last 3.  In my opinion, the last 3 drafts, the Vols talent level has dropped... no 1st round draft selection in the last 3 drafts you failed to list the last draft.  the 2002 draft included the 2001 team that almost played in the Rose Bowl.

As far as bemoaning the fact that the Vols were in the national title hunt as late as November in 4 of 5 seasons... you really don't get it do you?  Prior to Fulmer coming to UT, the Vols had not been on the hunt for a national title since the 1960's.

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OK, I admit it. You make some good points about the NC mix. I concur that Fulmer raised the overall level of the program from where Majors had it.

The remaining problem on the table, IMO, is that they stub their toe in two ways IF they get close to the mix: (1) They get EMBARASSED by good teams or (2) They lose to an INFERIOR team. In all of the examples you brought up one or both of these things occurred. Fulmer gets the talent to compete, but seems to have a hard time doing much when the chips are on the line. Let's just go back...

1995
(1) FL [scored 48 unanswered points; 7 cons TDs]
(2) NONE

1996
(1) FL [jumped out 35-0 in 1st half]
(2) MEMPHIS [nuff said]

1997
(1) FL, NEB [better than FL; Neb unexplainable]
(2) NONE

1998
GET R DUN [unbelievable]

1999
(1) NEBRASKA [pathetic with our talent; borderline unthinkable]
(2) FL, ARK [worst FL team of 90s; ARK had no bus]

2000
(1) KANSAS ST [typical embarassment game]
(2) NONE

2001
(1) NONE
(2) UGA, LSU [we had talent comp with MIA that year]

2002
(1) MIA, BAMA, MD, FL [ridiculous year, esp. FL; injuries were tough though]
(2) NONE

2003
(1) UGA, AUB [nice home game]
(2) CLEM

2004
(1) AUB 1
(2) ND

Now, I admit that Fulmer has brought us to the ledge of the top tier. But I think I have just shown a systemic problem of FAILING to win when it really matters in one of the aforementioned ways. You might say, "well, he got us there." And I agree. But I say, aside from recruiting, "Who wouldn't have?"

I give him credit for recruiting well. I just think he is good at coaching football.

 

[allvol]

Originally posted by Liper@Oct 25, 2005 4:25 PM
OK, I admit it.  You make some good points about the NC mix.  I concur that Fulmer raised the overall level of the program from where Majors had it. 

I give him credit for recruiting well.  I just think he is good at coaching football.

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I agree, he is one of the best recruiting HC in the country, but just a good coach. However, in his book he discusses surrounding himself with talent... ie assistant coaches. He has good coaches, but not great. That is where I think he makes his mistake. The Vols will always be one tier below the championship caliber teams until Fulmer decides he's ready to move back up. I'm not saying where the Vols are now is totally bad... because given the job to somebody else, they probably don't recruit so well to Tennessee. Spurrier didn't have to recruit Florida due to its location and home state talent. Fulmer has to recruit nationally against the other big teams. The only way to return to a season like 1998 is adding team leadership through the players. That is not coached, that just happens. Otherwise, Fulmer needs to look for help in coaching assistants that are better than what he has.

 

[Liper]

Originally posted by allvol@Oct 25, 2005 4:34 PM
I agree, he is one of the best recruiting HC in the country, but just a good coach.  However, in his book he discusses surrounding himself with talent... ie assistant coaches.  He has good coaches, but not great.  That is where I think he makes his mistake.  The Vols will always be one tier below the championship caliber teams until Fulmer decides he's ready to move back up.  I'm not saying where the Vols are now is totally bad... because given the job to somebody else, they probably don't recruit so well to Tennessee.  Spurrier didn't have to recruit Florida due to its location and home state talent.  Fulmer has to recruit nationally against the other big teams.  The only way to return to a season like 1998 is adding team leadership through the players.  That is not coached, that just happens.  Otherwise, Fulmer needs to look for help in coaching assistants that are better than what he has.

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I agree with about everything you just said, including the remarks about the "luck of the draw" with leadership among the players.

The Al Wilson's of the world make up for what is normally provided via coaching. Although I will say that doesn't make up for the teaching deficiencies.

 

[Liper]

AllVol,

One more thing on the draft...

Your mosty correct, I think, in that there was a fall-off in NFL talent in the latest two drafts. However, I believe some of that had to do with the way TN "cycled" up over the last year, whereby most of the talent will be going this year.

We'll probably see a pretty deep class this year:

Riggs
Hannon
Fayton
Mahelona
Harrylson
Simon
Gaither
Mitchell
Allen

Toeina?
Sears?
Hall?
Douglas?

I'm especially curious to see where Hannon goes. Other than the fact that he's been taught NOTHING about the WR positon - and he hasn't gotten a lick better since he's been here - he has perfect NFL talent. He looks a lot like a Burress. 4.3 speed, rangy, good hands, etc.

It's amost beyond hilarity that they can even keep this below the radar. WHAT A SHAME.