The Big XII needs to make a move

#1

therealUT

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#1
And make it fast. They ought to offer membership to Miami, Florida State, UNC, Duke, Louisville, and Virginia Tech.

This would give the Big XII sixteen teams, and set up very nice regional divisions:
West:
Kansas
K-State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
TCU
Texas Tech
Baylor

East:
Iowa State
West Virginia
Louisville
Virginia Tech
UNC
Duke
Florida State
Miami

This would also make the Big XII a stronger football conference and an even stronger basketball conference.
 
#2
#2
That's not much of a net-net in revenue.

Louisville brings very little to the table. FSU would be a good get, but the TV dollars would be negated by Miami. Same goes for UNC and Duke. Va Tech would be a solid pickup.

I don't see those six schools adding enough per team revenue to appease Texas and Oklahoma.
 
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#3
#3
That's not much of a net-net in revenue.

Louisville brings very little to the table. FSU would be a good get, but the TV dollars would be negated by Miami. Same goes for UNC and Duke. Va Tech would be a solid pickup.

I don't see those six schools adding enough per team revenue to appease Texas and Oklahoma.

While it would not be a substantial revenue bounce, it would be a bounce; also, the Big XII needs to be worried about members leaving for more prestigious conferences. Thus, grabbing these big-time schools makes the Big XII more secure (in my opinion).

Also, the move secures West Virginia's membership (due to travel costs associated with the current set up of the Big XII).
 
#4
#4
Honestly, no they don't.


they're already splitting more pie amongst less teams (remember, part of their agreement with the networks when Colorado and Nebraska left - during all the early panic - was Fox and ESPN agreeing not to reduce the Big 12's television contract relative to team amount [and the next year they promised again not to do so during the worries of the A&M and Missouri moves])...the teams in the conference are still, relatively, making a deal designed for about 12-teams worth and splitting it up among 10 teams), and they just become one of the four major stable conferences with the Sugar Bowl deal.


Plus Texas doesn't want to lose voting power in the conference by having more members, and the people in charge of their TV contracts had already told them that the only team worth getting monetary wise was Notre Dame.
 
#5
#5
While it would not be a substantial revenue bounce, it would be a bounce; also, the Big XII needs to be worried about members leaving for more prestigious conferences. Thus, grabbing these big-time schools makes the Big XII more secure (in my opinion).

Also, the move secures West Virginia's membership (due to travel costs associated with the current set up of the Big XII).



There's no worries about anyone in that conference leaving other than Oklahoma, who honestly will probably continue to flirt with the Pac-12 (the school really wants access to California, and the powers that be like how much better the Pac-12 association (academically and such) looks than the Big 12's), however little to nothing will come of it because 1) OU can't move without OkSt (who the Pac 12 could care less for) and perhaps more importantly 2) the only way the Pac-12 wants/ is willing to take OU (especially with Ok St) is if Oklahoma can bring Texas and convince them to join (as well as split the revenue from their longhorn network)



(and maybe Texas, were the latter to choose to go independent or something; but that doesn't seem likely)





WVU wouldn't be going anywhere. Part of the reason they ended up in the Big 12 was 1) the big 12 needed a 10th team and 2) part of the reason WVU ended up in the Big 12 was because no one else wanted the school (and still doesn't)






You're also forgetting about the signing away of TV/media (third-tier?) rights to the Big 12 that the conference just did for, how long was it, 6 years? Most of those teams not named Texas are now worthless to outside conferences until that time is up



Your conference is stable.
 
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#7
#7
You're also forgetting about the signing away of TV/media (third-tier?) rights to the Big 12 that the conference just did for, how long was it, 6 years? Most of those teams not named Texas are now worthless to outside conferences until that time is up

It's not that Big XII members are worthless to other conferences. It's just that any school that leaves during the grant of rights term wouldn't make any TV money in their new conference. The school would basically have to take the 30 million dollar check and send it to the Big XII central office.
 
#8
#8
You're also forgetting about the signing away of TV/media (third-tier?) rights to the Big 12 that the conference just did for, how long was it, 6 years? Most of those teams not named Texas are now worthless to outside conferences until that time is up



Your conference is stable.

Six years is a short time; moreover, it would be a poor strategy for the Big XII to sit by and do nothing, while watching the SEC, the BigTen, and the Pac-12 increase their stature and their market worth, simply because Big XII members are locked in for six years. That is simply begging them to bolt at the end of that term.

If the Big XII does not want to go the way for the Big East and/or the SEC, it had better make hay while the sun is high. Taking teams from the ACC now certainly cuts into the short term revenues for the schools currently in the Big XII; however, I have yet to see a compelling argument as to why it would not serve their long-term interests (even for Texas).

WVU has no loyalty to the Big XII and is easy picking for expansion; moreover, the travel costs for their Athletic Department are huge in the Big XII.

K-State's 2012 season has made them very attractive to the BigTen. Moving to the BigTen would renew their rivalry with Nebraska (who is their historical rival, not KU).

OU is attractive to the SEC.

The schools in the Big XII that are not attractive to other conferences are KU and Iowa State (unless the BigTen pulls them in simply to grab K-State), and Texas Tech. All of the other schools will be entertained by other conferences, if not now, then in five years, when the money is about to run out.
 
#9
#9
It's not that Big XII members are worthless to other conferences. It's just that any school that leaves during the grant of rights term wouldn't make any TV money in their new conference. The school would basically have to take the 30 million dollar check and send it to the Big XII central office.

Ah thanks for the explanation.


Still though, who's going to - with conference expansion being all about money - agree/want to take a move where they're going to have to do that each season
 
#10
#10
Ah thanks for the explanation.


Still though, who's going to - with conference expansion being all about money - agree/want to take a move where they're going to have to do that each season

aTm and Mizzou each paid around $12M to exit. In five years, if the teams in the Big XII see that the Big XII is worthless, they will negotiate the $30M down, just like aTm and Mizzou did, and dart (might do it in four).
 
#11
#11
aTm and Mizzou each paid around $12M to exit. In five years, if the teams in the Big XII see that the Big XII is worthless, they will negotiate the $30M down, just like aTm and Mizzou did, and dart (might do it in four).

I don't think he was talking about an exit fee number here, though I could be mistaken.
 
#12
#12
I don't think he was talking about an exit fee number here, though I could be mistaken.

He's not. But, the teams would gladly forego the $30M to jump ship; and, in most cases, the conferences will offer incentives. Moreover, all of that is negotiable (just like the exit fees). The $30M would not have been money that the Big XII (as a corporate entity) would make, it would be the shared revenue that accrues to the individual school. Thus, a school might negotiate to get out of the contract by offering the Big XII $10M in return for being released from the contract and being able to receive TV revenue.

The schools are in no way absolutely locked-in.
 
#13
#13
Six years is a short time; moreover, it would be a poor strategy for the Big XII to sit by and do nothing, while watching the SEC, the BigTen, and the Pac-12 increase their stature and their market worth, simply because Big XII members are locked in for six years. That is simply begging them to bolt at the end of that term.

If the Big XII does not want to go the way for the Big East and/or the SEC, it had better make hay while the sun is high. Taking teams from the ACC now certainly cuts into the short term revenues for the schools currently in the Big XII; however, I have yet to see a compelling argument as to why it would not serve their long-term interests (even for Texas).

It's a solid point, but the fact is there aren't too many attractive schools available. FSU and Clemson are probably the two most likely, since they bring decent markets and they won't be receiving invites from the SEC. North Carolina is a possibility, but they'd come with Duke attached, and taking two schools from the same state would negate the added TV revenue. Louisville and Cincinnati come from new markets, but are small fish within their states. Boise St would be an option, but they won't add enough to the pie to make all the slices bigger. A team that the Big XII would probably consider is BYU, and I bet they could talk the Cougars into it.

WVU has no loyalty to the Big XII and is easy picking for expansion; moreover, the travel costs for their Athletic Department are huge in the Big XII.

Who would take WVU? The SEC and ACC already turned them down, and the Big 10 is never going to lower their academic standards enough to take a glorified community college. Even if the ACC is desperate, the Big XII's TV contract is better.

K-State's 2012 season has made them very attractive to the BigTen. Moving to the BigTen would renew their rivalry with Nebraska (who is their historical rival, not KU).

Kansas State is the second fiddle in a small market state. Plus, they don't meet the Big 10's academic profile.

OU is attractive to the SEC.

True, but OU is tied to OSU, and Oklahoma isn't a big enough state to justify taking two schools. If OU could drop OSU, they'd already be in the SEC or Pac 12.
 
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#14
#14
Six years is a short time; moreover, it would be a poor strategy for the Big XII to sit by and do nothing, while watching the SEC, the BigTen, and the Pac-12 increase their stature and their market worth, simply because Big XII members are locked in for six years. That is simply begging them to bolt at the end of that term.

If the Big XII does not want to go the way for the Big East and/or the SEC, it had better make hay while the sun is high. Taking teams from the ACC now certainly cuts into the short term revenues for the schools currently in the Big XII; however, I have yet to see a compelling argument as to why it would not serve their long-term interests (even for Texas).

Texas knows that whatever happens it's one of the only few in that league guaranteed to find a safe-landing place in another conference. It's why they're so much more forward about only caring *about the here and *now as well as getting more benefit and say in conference moves and transactions. Bringing more people to the pie without actually making the pie properly, proportionately larger only results Texas making relatively less money and having less of a say in conference matters as a result of so many siblings. While OU might or might not mind something that, it's something Texas definitely would not want...especially going down to somewhere along the lines to just greater than 1/16th of the vote.

And also just jumping up from 10-16 teams is a huge move for a conference to digest, especially all at once. And without the NCAA passing a new rule allowing pods, extra semi-final games, etc, all these teams are still forced to play in a 2 divisional setup...with maybe at best something like the rotational mess of a setup that the WAC used prior to the MWC members splitting off.

All this strategy seems to be is overloading the conference because you're afraid more teams are going to be poached based on the last offseason...or that stability really isn't the aim here and you think the Big 12 needs to try to take some attempted big action to eclipse the other conferences (PAC, Big 10, SEC)... But if so, at this current moment, it's not the proper way of accomplishing such.

WVU has no loyalty to the Big XII and is easy picking for expansion; moreover, the travel costs for their Athletic Department are huge in the Big XII.

Where else would they possibly go? No one else wanted them. They tried to speak to both the SEC and the ACC about a conference move and each (because of the school not bringing much more market, and - among other things - it's just terrible standings academically) kindly told them to take a hike. Neither conference wanted them then and neither would want them now.*

Plus they got out of a dying Big East and into a big conference; they're nothing but content right now, even if they were just invited as a stop gap team and even with the travel distance. Would they have rather been in the SEC or ACC? Probably, those were their first choices. However, neither conference wanted them.

K-State's 2012 season has made them very attractive to the BigTen. Moving to the BigTen would renew their rivalry with Nebraska (who is their historical rival, not KU).

...no it hasn't. 1-2 good years doesn't suddenly make anyone an attractive commodity (see West Virginia). Throw in the fact that they're quite small market - nothing much is brought to the table - (and perhaps more importantly) also not an AAU school; there's very little chance the Big Ten is all that interested in them.*

Even if the Big Ten were to decide to take a more risky, Rutgers-esque endeavor, *looking for a quick small addition to balance out a larger one...with both pretty much in the same place (and one not bringing terribly much more than the other), it'd be more likely to see them end up going after KU with AAU status than KSU (and neither of those are really all that likely at the moment)

Teams aren't just added to conferences because they're currently playing well that season.

OU is attractive to the SEC.

Except OU wants to have nothing to do with the SEC or the possibility of joining it; they've made that well clear in the past (along the lines of they look down at the conference / feel it wouldn't help - possibly impair - their university's image)

The schools in the Big XII that are not attractive to other conferences are KU and Iowa State (unless the BigTen pulls them in simply to grab K-State), and Texas Tech. All of the other schools will be entertained by other conferences, if not now, then in five years, when the money is about to run out.

(I can't see them making any sort of move towards Iowa State...at all; also Texas Tech most likely has wherever Texas goes...if the PAC-12 talks with Texas that fell through are of any indication, Texas plans on bringing Texas Tech along like baggage wherever they go...you also left out Baylor on your list of "left behind" schools, but KU, Iowa State, and KSU would also all likely be on that list with them)
 
#15
#15
Besides Oklahoma and Texas there are no media markets in the BigXII worth having.
 
#16
#16
You're also forgetting about the signing away of TV/media (third-tier?) rights to the Big 12 that the conference just did for, how long was it, 6 years? Most of those teams not named Texas are now worthless to outside conferences until that time is up
The GOR is for 13 years and each school has now cut their own third-tier deals.
 
#20
#20
Hey BU, congrats on that "w" over purple Kansas. I know you're logged out now, but wanted to drop you a note anyhow. Good luck the rest of the way out.
 
#21
#21
Hey BU, congrats on that "w" over purple Kansas. I know you're logged out now, but wanted to drop you a note anyhow. Good luck the rest of the way out.

Thanks. Ya'lls win over bama was schweet also. Must be something about those spread offenses.
 
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#22
#22
Was talking to a B1G guy about our bowl projections and the Cap1 v Michigan matchup got brought up. He asked what I thought and I told him point blank, it'd be great right up until Kingsbury turned that sh/t into a track meet. After that, it'd be over. We shared a chuckle and agreed that's about as good as you could put it.


But then again, the spread just doesn't work in "big boy" football. Lol.
 
#24
#24
That's not much of a net-net in revenue.

Louisville brings very little to the table. FSU would be a good get, but the TV dollars would be negated by Miami. Same goes for UNC and Duke. Va Tech would be a solid pickup.

I don't see those six schools adding enough per team revenue to appease Texas and Oklahoma.

Just heard yesterday that Louisville is the top ranked revenue maker in college basketball. Pair that with an up and coming football program and top ranked non revenue sports every year then we bring VERY much to the table. We bring a lot more than West Virginia. Anyway more than likely we are headed to the ACC. But I heard on talk radio yesterday that Tom Jurich might be talking to the Big 12 to let them know the ACC is looking at us. So I wouldn't be surprised to see an announcement soon from the Big 12 or the ACC that includes Louisville in their next move.
 
#25
#25
It would be a very bold move, but I don't think any of those schools, save for Louisville maybe, would take that deal. Virginia Tech will almost certainly be offered by either the Big Ten or the SEC. Miami and Florida State would probably rather stay in the ACC. Louisville would probably accept it, but they'd probably rather have an offer from the ACC. Duke and North Carolina are looking for stability right now, but I think the basketball situation for the ACC looks way, way better (despite Mike Krzyzewski's concerns) than the current football situation does for that league, thus negating much of the reason to take that offer, not to mention, I think those schools would hold out for a Big Ten offer so they could be with more like-minded institutions.

If I were the B12 commish and wanted to expand, I would first ask either Houston or SMU to join the league first to get to 11, then look at any one of Louisville, BYU, Boise State, Georgia Tech, or Clemson to get to 12.
 

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