The 3-13 narrative that is often thrown out there

#1
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volmandu

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#1
People always pin this against Butch and TN that he is 3-13 against ranked teams. ESPN boasted an article about this. While this is true, data can be misleading without proper context. Apart from some Florida losses which are explainable, Butch's losses to these 'ranked' teams have come against teams that were Top-5 type and would be Huge type upsets.
Here is the break down (rankings of when we played them):

2013 : Losses to #2 Oregon, #19 Florida, #6 Georgia #1 Alabama #10 Missouri , #9 Auburn and Vanderbilt
Tennessee went 5-7 this season by beating #11 SC.

2014: Losses to #4 Oklahoma #12 Georgia #3 Ole Miss #4 Alabama #19 Missouri and Florida
TN went 6-6 and did not beat a ranked team.

2015: Losses to #19 Oklahoma #8 Alabama, Florida and Arkansas.
went 9-4 and beat #19 Georgia, #12 NW

Except for Florida losses, look at how each of these teams did that year and how much talent they had etc. It will paint a better picture. Plus also look at talent upgrade. The 2013 losses were us getting our drums beat while in 2015 we had eventual playoff teams (OU, AL) and SEC East champs (FL) in ropes.

We kept upgrading our talent and at most should have been 5-10 rather than 3-13 had we learnt to close games better in the process. But then again the 2013 SC win and last years GA win are flip sides of this.

We will beat FL this year. We will not only beat them but wgfwta !!

Tn 45, Fl 17 !!
 
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#2
#2
volmandu said:
People always pin this against Butch and TN that he is 3-13 against ranked teams. ESPN boasted an article about this. While this is true, data can be misleading without proper context. Apart from some Florida losses which are explainable, Butch's losses to these 'ranked' teams have come against teams that were Top-5 type and would be Huge type upsets.
Here is the break down (rankings of when we played them):

2013 : Losses to #2 Oregon, #19 Florida, #6 Georgia #1 Alabama #10 Missouri , #9 Auburn and Vanderbilt
Tennessee went 5-7 this season by beating #11 SC.

2014: Losses to #4 Oklahoma #12 Georgia #3 Ole Miss #4 Alabama #19 Missouri and Florida
TN went 6-6 and did not beat a ranked team.

2015: Losses to #19 Oklahoma #8 Alabama, Florida and Arkansas.
went 9-4 and bat #19 Georgia, #12 NW

Except for Florida losses, look at how each of these teams did that year and how much talent they had etc. It will paint a better picture. Plus also look at talent upgrade. The 2013 losses were us getting our drums beat while in 2015 we had eventual playoff teams (OU, AL) and SEC East champs (FL) in ropes.

We kept upgrading our talent and at most should have been 5-10 rather than 3-13 had we learnt to close games better in the process. But then again the 2013 SC win and last years GA win are flip sides of this.

We will beat FL this year. We will not only beat them but wgfwta !!

Tn 45, Fl 17 !!
Click to expand...

Context is key. Good point op
 
#3
#3
So, Tennessee shouldn't ever be expected to win games unless it has a clear advantage in talent?

Awesome. Thanks, coach Jones.
 
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#4
#4
Great post, volmandu.

I agree 100%. The 3-13 stat is one of the most misleading ones out there. 6 of those losses came in 2013 when Butch inherited a trainwreck and no one expected us to be remotely competitive. Another 5 came in 2014 when we had to deal with O-line issues that were left by Dooley.

The 3-13 stat is basically blaming Butch for 11 losses that had more to do with Dooley's poor recruiting, lack of talent development, and mismanagement. I see 2-2 since 2015 against top 25 teams as the more important measuring stick.
 
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#5
#5
Man, I had forgotten about getting boat raced against Oregon. I am not happy with the way our team has performed so far this year. But we are much improved compared to the team that played Oregon.
 
#7
#7
Wylo said:
So, Tennessee shouldn't ever be expected to win games unless it has a clear advantage in talent?

Awesome. Thanks, coach Jones.
Click to expand...

Why did you have to go all straw-man in this thread? You are a good poster with thought provoking content.
 
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#8
#8
Yep. Good analysis.

We were 2-2 against ranked opponents in 2015: Lost to #19 OK, beat #19 UGa, lost to #8 Bama, and beat #13 Northwestern.

If you want to use year-end rankings instead of when-we-played rankings, we were 1-3: Lost to #5 OK, lost to #25 FL, lost to #1 Bama, and beat #23 Northwestern.

Either way, 2015 was the first year Butch had the tools at his disposal to truly challenge top-tier competition.

So we can desist with this 3-13 nonsense, and judge the man on what he really should've been expected to do.

For me personally, I think he should've won one more game in 2015 than he did. Whether that's OK or FL is a devil's choice.

That is far from the picture you get when you hear the 3-13 mantra.

Thanks, Volmandu, nice write-up.
 
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#9
#9
McDad said:
Why did you have to go all straw-man in this thread? You are a good poster with thought provoking content.
Click to expand...

Mainly because it's sickening the amount of excuses that are made.

Not many people expected to beat Oregon.

But at some point there should be a victory against a better team. That's coaching. Tennessee hasn't done that under Jones nearly enough.
 
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#10
#10
Thread raises a valid point in that the win against Northwestern probably should not even count as a game against a ranked opponent. So you are more like 2-12, imo.
 
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#11
#11
Wylo said:
Mainly because it's sickening the amount of excuses that are made.

Not many people expected to beat Oregon.

But at some point there should be a victory against a better team. That's coaching. Tennessee hasn't done that under Jones nearly enough.
Click to expand...

I get it. We are all itching for the team to meet our expectations.

Lemme ask you this, aside from UF and OU last year, who should we have beaten since CBJ has taken over?
 
#12
#12
lawgator1 said:
They played three decent teams last year, and lost to two of them, including 38-0 to Michigan, and 40-10 to Iowa.

Their ranking was absurd.
Click to expand...

Forget that noise!

They were ranked at year end. They count.
 
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#14
#14
Here's the deal. This is going to seem like a self-evident point (it is) but worth mentioning.

If you take over a floundering program and are attempting to bring it back to prominence, a coach, by definition, has to start winning games "they aren't supposed to." You don't return to prominence by only winning the games people expect you to. Eventually, you have to start beating higher ranked teams and winning as an underdog with some level of consistency. You will not rise to the level prominence you want if you always or almost always lose to the "really good teams."

Butch deserves to have his feet held to the fire for the Oklahoma, Florida, and Arkansas games last year because those were eminently winnable games. The others, like getting blown out by Oregon on the road in his first year, sure, he gets a pass.
 
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#15
#15
Wylo said:
So, Tennessee shouldn't ever be expected to win games unless it has a clear advantage in talent?

Awesome. Thanks, coach Jones.
Click to expand...

Yes it should be. The SC win in 2013 and the GA win in 2015 were those. In college football, with 'significantly' lesser talent, you can rarely win against a better team. Thus they call it 'upset'. It 'upsets' were more frequent they would not be 'upsets'.
 
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#16
#16
05_never_again said:
Here's the deal. This is going to seem like a self-evident point (it is) but worth mentioning.

If you take over a floundering program and are attempting to bring it back to prominence, a coach, by definition, has to start winning games "they aren't supposed to." You don't return to prominence by only winning the games people expect you to. Eventually, you have to start beating higher ranked teams and winning as an underdog with some level of consistency. You will not rise to the level prominence you want if you always or almost always lose to the "really good teams."

Butch deserves to have his feet held to the fire for the Oklahoma, Florida, and Arkansas games last year because those were eminently winnable games. The others, like getting blown out by Oregon on the road in his first year, sure, he gets a pass.
Click to expand...


Correct in all respects.

Approved.
 
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#19
#19
McDad said:
I get it. We are all itching for the team to meet our expectations.

Lemme ask you this, aside from UF and OU last year, who should we have beaten since CBJ has taken over?
Click to expand...

I think it's fair to say UF in '14, and probably UGA in '14.

You might add Bama to the list from last year, but in my opinion that would have been rectified had you beaten OU. We could have played out that stretch successfully on confidence alone had we taken care of business against OU.

Butch's record against ranked/ or just better teams goes back before he arrived here. It's just not good. I'm all for judging his body of work fairly, but there is a history to look at. Again, in my mind, it all can be wiped clean over the next 4 weeks. If he overachieves during that stretch, and that means passing the eye-test even in a loss, there will be little room for criticism. It's time to compete, and to be judged fairly on the body of work. No more year one, young team,learning to compete blah-blah.
 
#20
#20
Wylo said:
Mainly because it's sickening the amount of excuses that are made.

Not many people expected to beat Oregon.

But at some point there should be a victory against a better team. That's coaching. Tennessee hasn't done that under Jones nearly enough.
Click to expand...

Also one thing I wanted to emphasize is that not all ranked teams are equal. Whenever we lost to a ranked teams, they were not Iowa or NW type ranked teams that were getting ranked based on poor competition.
 
#21
#21
'Boro-vol said:
I think it's fair to say UF in '14, and probably UGA in '14.

You might add Bama to the list from last year, but in my opinion that would have been rectified had you beaten OU. We could have played out that stretch successfully on confidence alone had we taken care of business against OU.

Butch's record against ranked/ or just better teams goes back before he arrived here. It's just not good. I'm all for judging his body of work fairly, but there is a history to look at. Again, in my mind, it all can be wiped clean over the next 4 weeks. If he overachieves during that stretch, and that means passing the eye-test even in a loss, there will be little room for criticism. It's time to compete, and to be judged fairly on the body of work. No more year one, young team,learning to compete blah-blah.
Click to expand...

I can agree on the UF and uga game in 2014. was that the game where pig fumbled at the pylon?
 
#22
#22
volmandu said:
Also one thing I wanted to emphasize is that not all ranked teams are equal. Whenever we lost to a ranked teams, they were not Iowa or NW type ranked teams that were getting ranked based on poor competition.
Click to expand...

Well, except for 2015 Florida. Based on how they melted down in the last half of the season, they apparently WERE another Iowa - Northwestern type of ranked team.
 
#23
#23
lawgator1 said:
They played three decent teams last year, and lost to two of them, including 38-0 to Michigan, and 40-10 to Iowa.

Their ranking was absurd.
Click to expand...

Well by that math then it's absurd that Florida was ranked in the top 20 going into their bowl game where they got beat BY MICHIGAN 41-7 (one of only 2 SEC teams to lose their bowl game). Get out of here man.
 
#25
#25
Not all games within the 3-13 stretch are created equally. There are some he should get a pass on. There are several others that he deserves to be criticized for losing.

The point is that he should be better than 3-13 in those games and criticizing on those grounds is at least partially valid. I understand that record is against "good teams." But you have to start beating the teams you aren't supposed to if you are going to elevate your program.
 
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