Thank God its not Football season!

#152
#152
MarcoVol said:
Which non-fear monger do you follow?
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I like to think for myself, do my own research, manage my own acceptable risks. I pull data from multiple sources and look at patterns and figure stuff out.

This isn't the first virus to spread from China in modern times. Infection rates are pretty consistent within certain variables. The patterns are not new. With the steps Trump took initially it limited exposure. It's not like upper respiratory viral infections are new. Its known to need a human carrier to spread. And looking at symptoms, mortality factors, risk factors isnt rocket science.
 
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#154
#154
Smokeyone said:
I like to think for myself, do my own research, manage my own acceptable risks. I pull data from multiple sources and look at patterns and figure stuff out.

This isn't the first virus to spread from China in modern times. Infection rates are pretty consistent within certain variables. The patterns are not new. With the steps Trump took initially it limited exposure. It's not like upper respiratory viral infections are new. Its known to need a human carrier to spread. And looking at symptoms, mortality factors, risk factors isnt rocket science.
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just curious. What has been your expertise or field of schooling or work?
 
#155
#155
ABINGDON VOL FAN said:
just curious. What has been your expertise or field of schooling or work?
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You do not need to be a subject matter expert to do basic research. I know it's hard to believe this but once upon a time people read books and papers and learned things.

But since you asked. In 1999 I had spinal meningitis and swelling in the brain that led to 14 years of high dose prednisone. This weakened my immune system. Since 1999 I have become acutely aware of the annual flu season and the various other "bugs" both here and abroad. I cannot label the various proteins that make this new strain different but I can look at 100 years of infectious disease tracking and compare it to what we are seeing.

Even if you believe China is lying about their numbers we can look at the trusted data from other regions and the US data and construct a reasonable timeline and infection map to compare to the MARs, SARs, seasonal flu to get an idea of what to expect from this. Honestly this week into next week are likely to be the peak numbers. And just dont see a means to go from 3,800ish infections and 79 deaths fifty something days into this to 48,000,000 infections and 860,000 deaths by the 90-120 day mark. It would go well beyond anything we have seen here with person to person transmission. The standard 3 points of deviation bell just doesn't work. The timeframe for 1st case to peak cases just doesn't fit. The timeline from infection to incubation to recovery for 1st world countries just doesn't work. A spike in the next two weeks? Absolutely. I believe we will see 3rd and 4th tier infections started showing up last week.
 
#157
#157
SARs CoV-2 2002-2003
H1N1 2009-2010
H2N2 1956-1958
H1N1 1977-1978
H3N2 1968-1969
ZIKA 2015 -2016
EBOLA 2013-2016
MERS-CoV 2017-

We have plenty of data and source material to study outbreaks
 
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#158
#158
doubt there will be a college season -- every day the media hypes a few new cases -- wouldnt surprise me to see Emmert jump the gun and cancel it in May
 
#160
#160
Smokeyone said:
You do not need to be a subject matter expert to do basic research. I know it's hard to believe this but once upon a time people read books and papers and learned things.

But since you asked. In 1999 I had spinal meningitis and swelling in the brain that led to 14 years of high dose prednisone. This weakened my immune system. Since 1999 I have become acutely aware of the annual flu season and the various other "bugs" both here and abroad. I cannot label the various proteins that make this new strain different but I can look at 100 years of infectious disease tracking and compare it to what we are seeing.

Even if you believe China is lying about their numbers we can look at the trusted data from other regions and the US data and construct a reasonable timeline and infection map to compare to the MARs, SARs, seasonal flu to get an idea of what to expect from this. Honestly this week into next week are likely to be the peak numbers. And just dont see a means to go from 3,800ish infections and 79 deaths fifty something days into this to 48,000,000 infections and 860,000 deaths by the 90-120 day mark. It would go well beyond anything we have seen here with person to person transmission. The standard 3 points of deviation bell just doesn't work. The timeframe for 1st case to peak cases just doesn't fit. The timeline from infection to incubation to recovery for 1st world countries just doesn't work. A spike in the next two weeks? Absolutely. I believe we will see 3rd and 4th tier infections started showing up last week.
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Well many of the experts are stating the numbers are two to three weeks behind where Italy was. What is your opinion on that?
 
#161
#161
ABINGDON VOL FAN said:
Well many of the experts are stating the numbers are two to three weeks behind where Italy was. What is your opinion on that?
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I expect a spike the next 10 days here in high population centers that already have a bunch of cases (central California, Florida, Massachusetts, New York, north Atlanta) but not nation wide. I just dont see states with less than 50 cases gaining thousands unless people in large numbers start fleeing high concentration areas. I expect Seattle has peaked and will start seeing fewer cases in the next 2 weeks. They had a classic super speader, high population density, and were unprepared. That should be over soon. New york and central California were both slow to respond, have stupid high population density, high homelessness populations, high rates of immigrants (cultural and language barriers) and will likely become the new highest risk areas. Boston has the same issues and will has Saint Patrick's day events (official and otherwise) that could cause it to become very ugly.

For those not in regional hotspots the numbers will increase but not significantly.
 
#162
#162
Boston traditionally has reacted poorly to illness related issues. Looking at the city going back a hundred years it and Philadelphia generally fair poorly in times like this.
 
#163
#163
Italy 27980 cases year to date. 2158 dead, 2749 recovered so 23,073 active cases today. Let's see if that number levels off, grows or drops the next 3 days. I'm betting it levels off for a week.
 
#164
#164
Hubei Province China (epicenter of CoV19)
67799 cases 1 DEC 2019 to date
-3111 dead
-55887 recovered
________
8801 active cases

Let's see how that number changes.
 
#167
#167
Half of New Yorks 1,374 cases are in New York City. Expect that number to increase for the next 3 weeks.
 
#168
#168
King county and Snohomish county in Washington St were at 688 of 904 cases in the stat as of yesterday. They also accounted for 47 of 48 deaths. So 640 active cases in the epicentre for US cases. Let's see how that number changes by Friday
 
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