Tennessee's Week 12 Playoff Review/Guide

#1

zjcvols

"On a Tennessee Saturday night."
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#1
Tennessee lost. That's the bad news. Had they won (and assuming they took care of business against Vandy) then UT would have had been guaranteed a spot. That did not happen unfortunately and now it's out of Tennessee's hands. I have noticed, whether fair or not, there seemed to be some anti-UT bias against getting in the playoffs which I will later discuss. I'll try not to repeat myself too much from last week.

1. Go Army & USC- The absolute biggest thing that can help Tennessee is a Notre Dame loss. Right now, at 9-1, Notre Dame is squarely in the playoff. At 10-2 with no conference title game and a bad loss to Northern Illinois, that would put them out of the playoff. Tennessee did get a little bit of help with Louisville losing because that was a top 25 win for Notre Dame. That won't be on their resume now. But with TAMU's success they still have that. However, I don't see them getting in above an SEC school if they are 10-2 with the worst loss among the playoff bubble teams. A Notre Dame loss exponentially increases Tennessee's playoff odds.

2. (Pukes typing the words) Ohio State needs to beat Indiana by 90- This is very important as well. Indiana's strength of schedule is currently 100. Their best win is a 31-17 win against 6-5 Washington. If they lose by a significant margin (something like 45-10, 38-7) then they should drop significantly and I think, even with the committee ranking Indiana ahead of Tennessee this week, that would put Indiana behind the 8 ball. It would be a 50/50 proposition. But the worst thing is an Indiana win or a super close game for media purposes (because 10-2 Ohio State is getting in no matter what). They're a cute story, they committee would feel empowered and it would send a message that "anybody can get in!" to increase the ratings. An Ohio State beatdown helps Tennessee.

3. Cheer for Texas or Texas A&M?- Good news is LSU and Missouri lost. That took LSU out of the conference champion race and Missouri from the 10-2 possibility. Right now the SEC title game would be Texas/Texas A&M vs Alabama because Alabama has the best conference opponents' win percentage. I think cheering for Texas A&M would be best against Texas for three reasons: 1) TAMU beating Texas but losing to Alabama in the SEC title game would have them at 10-3, which helps Tennessee. 2) Tennessee actually has a better resume than Texas. While Texas would have "better losses" they do not have Tennessee's win against Alabama. 3) If Bama won the SEC (again, puke) then that means Tennessee beat a top 4 CFP team, something Texas does not have. Now, would the committee factor in name recognition and preseason rankings and put Texas in anyways? Maybe! But I'll take the chance. Or would the committee say "**** it, put 5 SEC teams in and Indiana can get bent"? Also maybe! Or would the committee look at 10-3 Alabama and 10-2 Tennessee and say "Tennessee gets in they won the head to head"? I guess the argument against 10-3 Alabama vs. 10-2 Tennessee with head to head would not work in Tennessee's favor with how many "quality" wins Alabama has. But I don't know. It's all stupid!

4. The ACC/Big 12- I still don't think an 11-2 ACC or Big 12 team is getting in above a 10-2 SEC team, and BYU losing was good for Tennessee. I believe a 12-1 at large BYU would have gotten in over Tennessee. Now it looks like the Big 12 will be a one bid league, either BYU or Colorado. While I don't think Miami at 11-2 gets in above 10-2 Tennessee, I also can't guarantee that. 10-2 SMU facing 10-2 Clemson in the ACC title game would be the absolute best thing for the Vols, even if SMU and Miami both losing before the ACC title game is unlikely.

5. Whether fair or not, Tennessee is the 5th team if we see a bunch of 10 win SEC teams- Right now, with how the committee has talked about Tennessee and this talk of an "elimination game" against Georgia the media pushed, I think Tennessee is 5th in the SEC pecking order behind Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss. I don't think that's really fair with how absolutely terrible Ole Miss' losses are (that loss to Kentucky is a travesty and the LSU loss looks worse and worse) but the media is treating Ole Miss beating Georgia as if they took down the 85' Bears. I still think there is some external pressure to not make this the SEC/B10 invitational. If Notre Dame, Penn State and Indiana go 11-1, with Texas/Bama at 11-2, then UGA/Ole Miss at 10-2, that leaves Tennessee out in the cold if Indiana keeps it close against Ohio State. If Alabama loses to Texas in the CFP and goes 10-3.........then all bets are off. I think Tennessee should still get in with the same amount of wins and head to head but I have a bad feeling that won't happen.

Remaining Schedules For Bubble Teams (Assuming Texas, Oregon, Ohio State, and BYU get in)
Miami- Wake Forest, @Syracuse
Penn State- @Minnesota, vs. Maryland
Indiana- @Ohio State, vs. Purdue
Notre Dame- vs. Army (in New York), @USC
Ole Miss- @Florida, vs. Miss State
Georgia- vs UMass, vs. Georgia Tech
Alabama- @Oklahoma, vs. Auburn
SMU- @Virginia, vs. Cal
Texas A&M- @Auburn, vs Texas
 
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#2
#2
Great write up and breakdown. I agree with this. Basically, we are a bubble team and it largely depends on other things happening…which we don’t entirely know for sure.

Good news: If Tennessee makes the playoffs, we would not have to play in the SEC championship and might get a non-SEC matchup to start.
 
#6
#6
Welcome to the new college football. A 10-2 record in the sec is great. You guys need to stop bitching.
Never said 10-2 isn’t great. We had a shot to solidify our place in the playoffs and not have to worry about what other teams do. We failed and now we have to worry about what other teams do.

I live that we are gonna be 10-2. I just hate that we lost to UGA.
 
#7
#7
We need:
1. Texas to beat A&M
2. Florida to beat Ole miss.

I don’t really see a scenario we get left out if that happens. 4 sec teams are getting in
Also Notre dame loosing would be huge. Still 2 weeks of football anything can happen I doubt alll these teams win out ,somebody gonna drop one they shouldn’t.
 
#8
#8
It's really tough to win road games in the SEC. Just ask Georgia who lost to Ole Miss and Alabama on the road.
 
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#9
#9
Never said 10-2 isn’t great. We had a shot to solidify our place in the playoffs and not have to worry about what other teams do. We failed and now we have to worry about what other teams do.

I live that we are gonna be 10-2. I just hate that we lost to UGA.

Damaging isn’t the right word, but I’m not sure there has been a bigger “stakes” loss to the program than that loss to Arkansas. If they had pulled it out, they’d still be in the drivers seat and with a win over Vandy in Atlanta, ensuring their place in the CFP. That loss cost Tennessee almost everything.
 
#11
#11
Damaging isn’t the right word, but I’m not sure there has been a bigger “stakes” loss to the program than that loss to Arkansas. If they had pulled it out, they’d still be in the drivers seat and with a win over Vandy in Atlanta, ensuring their place in the CFP. That loss cost Tennessee almost everything.
USC loss a couple years ago stands out, especially with it being later in the season. Would have put us into final 4
 
#12
#12
USC loss a couple years ago stands out, especially with it being later in the season. Would have put us into final 4

The only thing I would say is that we weren’t going to Atlanta and Hendon tearing his ACL killed any chance anyways of being a title team.
 
#14
#14
Texas-TexasA@M still have a regular season game. We need aggies to lose and Florida to beat Mississippi. That gets us in as 4th sec team. No 3 loss team is making it in, unless it’s Bama losing a 3rd game in the sec championship and that is only a maybe. GBO
 
#15
#15
It's really tough to win road games in the SEC. Just ask Georgia who lost to Ole Miss and Alabama on the road.
Thank you for a simple post that just makes too much sense.

Look at the top 6 of the SEC best wins and all losses:
1. Texas lost at home UGA (no top 25 win)
2. UGA lost @ Bama & @ Ole Miss (wins @ TX, home UT & (N) Clemson)
3. Bama lost @ TN & @ Vandy (wins home UGA home USC)
4. Ole Miss lost @ LSU & home UK (win @ USC home UGA)
5. UT lost @ ARK & @ UGA (win home Bama)
6. A&M lost (N) ND & @ USC (no top 25 win)

*removed LSU and Mizzou from top 25 after losses this weekend.
*top 25 wins based on current rankings not time game was played.

Combined the top 6 SEC have suffered 11 losses:
Total losses at home: 2 (1 non ranked by Ole Miss)
Total neutral field losses: 1
Total road losses: 8 (3 non ranked Ole Miss, Bama & UT)

Combined the top 6 SEC have 8 wins against current top 25: (TX and A&M have no top 25 wins)
Road wins: 2
Neutral site wins: 1
Home wins: 5

Record in games played against current top 25 and season to date record:
1. TX 0-1 (9-1)
2. UGA 3-2. (8-2)
3. Bama 2-1 (8-2)
4. Ole Miss 2-0 (8-2)
5. UT 1-1 (8-2)
6. A&M 0-2 (8-2)

This data proves you are more likely to lose on the road and that even non ranked teams increase their odds significantly to beat a ranked team if they are @ home versus on the road.
 
#16
#16
If 4 teams from the sec do not make it in, the SEC will pull out of this farce. How in Haiti they moved BYU and Indiana to 5th and 6th last week is head scratching. The way this committee is ranking teams they are rewarding powder fluff scheduling and that is not what fans want. GBO
 
#17
#17
If 4 teams from the sec do not make it in, the SEC will pull out of this farce. How in Haiti they moved BYU and Indiana to 5th and 6th last week is head scratching. The way this committee is ranking teams they are rewarding powder fluff scheduling and that is not what fans want. GBO
BYU is the most overrated team contending for a playoff spot.
 
#18
#18
Figured I’d bump for Monday morning people.

Wazzu lost helps as well
 
#19
#19
Tennessee lost. That's the bad news. Had they won (and assuming they took care of business against Vandy) then UT would have had been guaranteed a spot. That did not happen unfortunately and now it's out of Tennessee's hands. I have noticed, whether fair or not, there seemed to be some anti-UT bias against getting in the playoffs which I will later discuss. I'll try not to repeat myself too much from last week.

1. Go Army & USC- The absolute biggest thing that can help Tennessee is a Notre Dame loss. Right now, at 9-1, Notre Dame is squarely in the playoff. At 10-2 with no conference title game and a bad loss to Northern Illinois, that would put them out of the playoff. Tennessee did get a little bit of help with Louisville losing because that was a top 25 win for Notre Dame. That won't be on their resume now. But with TAMU's success they still have that. However, I don't see them getting in above an SEC school if they are 10-2 with the worst loss among the playoff bubble teams. A Notre Dame loss exponentially increases Tennessee's playoff odds.

2. (Pukes typing the words) Ohio State needs to beat Indiana by 90- This is very important as well. Indiana's strength of schedule is currently 100. Their best win is a 31-17 win against 6-5 Washington. If they lose by a significant margin (something like 45-10, 38-7) then they should drop significantly and I think, even with the committee ranking Indiana ahead of Tennessee this week, that would put Indiana behind the 8 ball. It would be a 50/50 proposition. But the worst thing is an Indiana win or a super close game for media purposes (because 10-2 Ohio State is getting in no matter what). They're a cute story, they committee would feel empowered and it would send a message that "anybody can get in!" to increase the ratings. An Ohio State beatdown helps Tennessee.

3. Cheer for Texas or Texas A&M?- Good news is LSU and Missouri lost. That took LSU out of the conference champion race and Missouri from the 10-2 possibility. Right now the SEC title game would be Texas/Texas A&M vs Alabama because Alabama has the best conference opponents' win percentage. I think cheering for Texas A&M would be best against Texas for three reasons: 1) TAMU beating Texas but losing to Alabama in the SEC title game would have them at 10-3, which helps Tennessee. 2) Tennessee actually has a better resume than Texas. While Texas would have "better losses" they do not have Tennessee's win against Alabama. 3) If Bama won the SEC (again, puke) then that means Tennessee beat a top 4 CFP team, something Texas does not have. Now, would the committee factor in name recognition and preseason rankings and put Texas in anyways? Maybe! But I'll take the chance. Or would the committee say "**** it, put 5 SEC teams in and Indiana can get bent"? Also maybe! Or would the committee look at 10-3 Alabama and 10-2 Tennessee and say "Tennessee gets in they won the head to head"? I guess the argument against 10-3 Alabama vs. 10-2 Tennessee with head to head would not work in Tennessee's favor with how many "quality" wins Alabama has. But I don't know. It's all stupid!

4. The ACC/Big 12- I still don't think an 11-2 ACC or Big 12 team is getting in above a 10-2 SEC team, and BYU losing was good for Tennessee. I believe a 12-1 at large BYU would have gotten in over Tennessee. Now it looks like the Big 12 will be a one bid league, either BYU or Colorado. While I don't think Miami at 11-2 gets in above 10-2 Tennessee, I also can't guarantee that. 10-2 SMU facing 10-2 Clemson in the ACC title game would be the absolute best thing for the Vols, even if SMU and Miami both losing before the ACC title game is unlikely.

5. Whether fair or not, Tennessee is the 5th team if we see a bunch of 10 win SEC teams- Right now, with how the committee has talked about Tennessee and this talk of an "elimination game" against Georgia the media pushed, I think Tennessee is 5th in the SEC pecking order behind Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss. I don't think that's really fair with how absolutely terrible Ole Miss' losses are (that loss to Kentucky is a travesty and the LSU loss looks worse and worse) but the media is treating Ole Miss beating Georgia as if they took down the 85' Bears. I still think there is some external pressure to not make this the SEC/B10 invitational. If Notre Dame, Penn State and Indiana go 11-1, with Texas/Bama at 11-2, then UGA/Ole Miss at 10-2, that leaves Tennessee out in the cold if Indiana keeps it close against Ohio State. If Alabama loses to Texas in the CFP and goes 10-3.........then all bets are off. I think Tennessee should still get in with the same amount of wins and head to head but I have a bad feeling that won't happen.

Remaining Schedules For Bubble Teams (Assuming Texas, Oregon, Ohio State, and BYU get in)
Miami- Wake Forest, @Syracuse
Penn State- @Minnesota, vs. Maryland
Indiana- @Ohio State, vs. Purdue
Notre Dame- vs. Army (in New York), @USC
Ole Miss- @Florida, vs. Miss State
Georgia- vs UMass, vs. Georgia Tech
Alabama- @Oklahoma, vs. Auburn
SMU- @Virginia, vs. Cal
Texas A&M- @Auburn, vs Texas
With respect to hte TN/Bama & TN'GA games (even the ARK loss) , one can also soundly argue we executed as expected. We beat Bama at home and played Ga strong for the most part on the road. And the ARK loss was on the road in the SEC. ARK record not very good, but they are not pansies at all. Flip side is one can also argue our O underperformed all season in conference play.
 
#20
#20
Tennessee lost. That's the bad news. Had they won (and assuming they took care of business against Vandy) then UT would have had been guaranteed a spot. That did not happen unfortunately and now it's out of Tennessee's hands. I have noticed, whether fair or not, there seemed to be some anti-UT bias against getting in the playoffs which I will later discuss. I'll try not to repeat myself too much from last week.

1. Go Army & USC- The absolute biggest thing that can help Tennessee is a Notre Dame loss. Right now, at 9-1, Notre Dame is squarely in the playoff. At 10-2 with no conference title game and a bad loss to Northern Illinois, that would put them out of the playoff. Tennessee did get a little bit of help with Louisville losing because that was a top 25 win for Notre Dame. That won't be on their resume now. But with TAMU's success they still have that. However, I don't see them getting in above an SEC school if they are 10-2 with the worst loss among the playoff bubble teams. A Notre Dame loss exponentially increases Tennessee's playoff odds.

2. (Pukes typing the words) Ohio State needs to beat Indiana by 90- This is very important as well. Indiana's strength of schedule is currently 100. Their best win is a 31-17 win against 6-5 Washington. If they lose by a significant margin (something like 45-10, 38-7) then they should drop significantly and I think, even with the committee ranking Indiana ahead of Tennessee this week, that would put Indiana behind the 8 ball. It would be a 50/50 proposition. But the worst thing is an Indiana win or a super close game for media purposes (because 10-2 Ohio State is getting in no matter what). They're a cute story, they committee would feel empowered and it would send a message that "anybody can get in!" to increase the ratings. An Ohio State beatdown helps Tennessee.

3. Cheer for Texas or Texas A&M?- Good news is LSU and Missouri lost. That took LSU out of the conference champion race and Missouri from the 10-2 possibility. Right now the SEC title game would be Texas/Texas A&M vs Alabama because Alabama has the best conference opponents' win percentage. I think cheering for Texas A&M would be best against Texas for three reasons: 1) TAMU beating Texas but losing to Alabama in the SEC title game would have them at 10-3, which helps Tennessee. 2) Tennessee actually has a better resume than Texas. While Texas would have "better losses" they do not have Tennessee's win against Alabama. 3) If Bama won the SEC (again, puke) then that means Tennessee beat a top 4 CFP team, something Texas does not have. Now, would the committee factor in name recognition and preseason rankings and put Texas in anyways? Maybe! But I'll take the chance. Or would the committee say "**** it, put 5 SEC teams in and Indiana can get bent"? Also maybe! Or would the committee look at 10-3 Alabama and 10-2 Tennessee and say "Tennessee gets in they won the head to head"? I guess the argument against 10-3 Alabama vs. 10-2 Tennessee with head to head would not work in Tennessee's favor with how many "quality" wins Alabama has. But I don't know. It's all stupid!

4. The ACC/Big 12- I still don't think an 11-2 ACC or Big 12 team is getting in above a 10-2 SEC team, and BYU losing was good for Tennessee. I believe a 12-1 at large BYU would have gotten in over Tennessee. Now it looks like the Big 12 will be a one bid league, either BYU or Colorado. While I don't think Miami at 11-2 gets in above 10-2 Tennessee, I also can't guarantee that. 10-2 SMU facing 10-2 Clemson in the ACC title game would be the absolute best thing for the Vols, even if SMU and Miami both losing before the ACC title game is unlikely.

5. Whether fair or not, Tennessee is the 5th team if we see a bunch of 10 win SEC teams- Right now, with how the committee has talked about Tennessee and this talk of an "elimination game" against Georgia the media pushed, I think Tennessee is 5th in the SEC pecking order behind Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss. I don't think that's really fair with how absolutely terrible Ole Miss' losses are (that loss to Kentucky is a travesty and the LSU loss looks worse and worse) but the media is treating Ole Miss beating Georgia as if they took down the 85' Bears. I still think there is some external pressure to not make this the SEC/B10 invitational. If Notre Dame, Penn State and Indiana go 11-1, with Texas/Bama at 11-2, then UGA/Ole Miss at 10-2, that leaves Tennessee out in the cold if Indiana keeps it close against Ohio State. If Alabama loses to Texas in the CFP and goes 10-3.........then all bets are off. I think Tennessee should still get in with the same amount of wins and head to head but I have a bad feeling that won't happen.

Remaining Schedules For Bubble Teams (Assuming Texas, Oregon, Ohio State, and BYU get in)
Miami- Wake Forest, @Syracuse
Penn State- @Minnesota, vs. Maryland
Indiana- @Ohio State, vs. Purdue
Notre Dame- vs. Army (in New York), @USC
Ole Miss- @Florida, vs. Miss State
Georgia- vs UMass, vs. Georgia Tech
Alabama- @Oklahoma, vs. Auburn
SMU- @Virginia, vs. Cal
Texas A&M- @Auburn, vs Texas
I mostly agree with you on this. A Notre Dame loss is the cleanest path for us. In regard to the Texas/A&M point, the absolute best case would be for A&M to lose this weekend in a night game at Auburn, then beat Texas in a home night game the following week. That is not a far fetched possibility and would eliminate A&M while also giving Texas a second loss against a 3 loss team in their last regular season game. I also wouldn't assume that BYU doesn't lose to Arizona State this weekend, which would likely keep BYU from even playing in their CG.
 

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