To be honest, it's probably about right, if not a little high - we've had minor roster turn-over with three "starting" QBs in camp, the bulk of the OL returning and a lot of game experience coming back on D. Then there is the CBJ factor, he couldn't coach during the game and did NOT develop the roster, which lead to a 4-8 season.
The outlier is the coaching, CJP is entering his first campaign as a HC and Helton is in his first full year as THE OC and Sherrer as THE DC, his crutch is having CJP as a "back-up". If this staff can develop the kids as these coaches have done previously we will probably end up in the top 30-40. But this transition is NOT going to come overnight, it will take a couple of years . . . Rome wasn't built in a day, but it burned in a day - see Kiffin, Dooley, Jones and most of all Hamilton!
GBO