rexvol
The Minister of Defense
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10 games that will determine the SEC
Tim Tebow (15), seen scoring against South Carolina last year, is one of the chief reasons the Florida Gators are heavy favorites to repeat as Southeastern Conference champions in 2009/Gator Country Photo by Tim Casey
The proof is in the numbers for the Southeastern Conference. The SEC has produced the last three national champions in football --- Florida 2006 and 2008; LSU 2007 --- and four of the last six (LSU also won it in 2003). With Tim Tebow and Brandon Spikes returning to lead the way, Florida is favored to make it four straight national champions for the SEC this year. From top to bottom, there isnt a better football conference in the country.
On the national stage, the SEC has proven clearly dominant. It can be successfully argued that the reason the league is so good in championship games is because the regular season and SEC Championship Game are so tough that the BCS title game is a breeze. While Florida enters the 2009 season a heavy favorite to win the SEC championship, the regular season schedule is a minefield. Whoever makes it to Atlanta will have earned its way.
Here is an early summer look at 10 games that should define the SEC season and determine who gets to Atlanta.
1. SEPTEMBER 12, SOUTH CAROLINA AT GEORGIA: This is an early test for both South Carolina and Georgia and it could go a long way toward determining which of these two teams can challenge Florida for the SEC East championship. In his four years at South Carolina, Steve Spurrier has always played Georgia very close and he owns a win over the Bulldogs in Athens two years ago. This should be Spurriers best team at South Carolina and getting Georgia early in the season should weigh heavily in the Gamecocks favor. Georgia will be breaking in a brand new quarterback against a South Carolina defense that figures to be as good, if not better than last year even without the presence of Jasper Brinkley. If Spurrier has Stephen Garcias head screwed on straight, then South Carolina could have the best offense its had in the Spurrier era. Georgia figures to be much better by midseason but this is an early test and a big one for the Bulldogs.
2. SEPTEMBER 26, ALABAMA AT ARKANSAS: Arkansas could be a real spoiler in the SEC West. Nobody really expects the Razorbacks to crack the top three in the division, but everybody is expecting them to be substantially better than last year. Playing at home, the Razorbacks have a chance to spring an early upset that could have both SEC and national implications. Alabama should have an outstanding defense but for an offense replacing so many starters on the offensive line and with a new quarterback, a hostile road environment presents a huge test. This will be the first real test for Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett, the 6-7, 260-pound transfer from Michigan. If he lights up Alabama, then the Razorbacks could prove to be the spoiler in the West.
3. OCTOBER 3, LSU AT GEORGIA: For Georgia, this could be an elimination game. The last thing the Bulldogs need is to be one week into October with two SEC losses on the resume. For LSU its the first of a two-week gauntlet against the SEC East. Florida is coming to town next but the Tigers cant afford to be looking ahead. Georgia has to hope its home field advantage gives them enough of an edge to spring an upset. LSU has the talent to win this one on the road but do the Tigers have the mental edge it takes to win in hostile environments? They didnt last year.
4. OCTOBER 10, FLORIDA AT LSU: The Gators will probably come into this game ranked number one in the nation which means LSU fans will be arriving in Baton Rouge on Wednesday and by Saturday night theyll be greased, loud and ready to turn Tiger Stadium into the loudest place on the planet. This is the toughest game on the Florida schedule. If the Gators can get past this one, they might be able to run the table in the regular season. For LSU, this could be the defining game of the season. With Alabama, Ole Miss and Arkansas still on the schedule, a win could give the Tigers a ton of confidence to go ahead and win the SEC West. A loss could affect their psyche the rest of the way much in the way losing to Florida 51-21 last year caused the Tigers to fall apart for the next six weeks.
5. OCTOBER 10, ALABAMA AT OLE MISS: Ole Miss has had this game circled on its calendar since last year. The Rebels thought they should have beaten Alabama last year. This year they get their chance to beat up on the Crimson Tide for the first time since 2004. This will be a huge test for Ole Miss quarterback Jevan Snead. Snead turned into the second best quarterback in the SEC (behind Tebow) last year in the second half of the season. He will have to set the pace against this Alabama defense, but if he can get the Rebels on the board early, theyve got a real chance to win since Alabama doesnt figure to move the ball very well against what will be a pretty stout Ole Miss defense led by All-American defensive end Greg Hardy.
6. OCTOBER 17, SOUTH CAROLINA AT ALABAMA: This is like jumping from the frying pan and into the fire for Alabama. One week after traveling to Oxford, Steve Spurrier and South Carolina visit Tuscaloosa. We could be looking at an upset here if Alabama comes out of the Ole Miss game battered and bruised. South Carolina should have a good enough defense to keep the game close. The real question is going to be quarterback Stephen Garcia. This is the midway point in the season and by now, South Carolina will know if it has a keeper at quarterback or if its going to be another mediocre season. This very well could be a must win game for both teams. If Alabama loses in Oxford and South Carolina comes into this game with a loss, the loser could find itself thinking Peach Bowl or Outback Bowl.
7. OCTOBER 31, FLORIDA-GEORGIA AT JACKSONVILLE: After going down 49-10 last year, the Georgia players say theyve plastered the score of the Florida game all over their locker room and theyre using it as motivation to have a great 2009. Florida should win this game by a wide margin but given that its a huge rivalry game, you have to give the Bulldogs a measure of respect and prepare for them as if theyre on the verge of winning a national championship. In Floridas favor is the game is in Jacksonville, Tim Tebows home town. The thought is that he wont allow the Gators to lose this one, not in front of all the home folks and particularly because it is Georgia were talking about.
8. NOVEMBER 7, LSU AT ALABAMA: There is that possibility that both teams will come into this game unbeaten although its unlikely. A more likely possibility is that both come into the game with at least one loss and the loser is eliminated from the SEC West race. Even without those possibilities, this is a game to circle on the calendar. LSU coach Les Miles and Alabama coach Nick Saban might have a healthy respect for each other, but respect is where it ends. They dont like each other. Not at all, and nothing would make them happier than to come out of this game with a very big win. Figure whoever wins this one is still in the hunt to represent the SEC West in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta.
9. NOVEMBER 14, FLORIDA AT SOUTH CAROLINA: In the preseason, you figure this is a blowout win for the Gators but if South Carolina gets some momentum going in this season early on and can spring an upset or two to jump start things, November 14 could be very interesting. If the Gamecocks come into this game with only one SEC loss, then Columbia is going to be one rocking place when Florida comes to town.
10. NOVEMBER 21, LSU AT OLE MISS: This could very well be the game that decides the SEC West championship, especially if LSU and Ole Miss both beat Alabama. In Baton Rouge, you would have to give LSU a decided advantage. The home field advantage in Oxford isnt nearly as great for Ole Miss but it could be just enough to put the Rebels in their first SEC Championship Game.
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