Daloth
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Warning. This one is a doozey.
After doing my Barnett vs Garrett post earlier this week it was heavily commented that A&M plays in the West so their schedule is much harder and thus his stats should be worse (despite of course, TN's much stronger out of conference schedule and always playing Alabama, but I digress.)
So I decided to check out common AP ranked opponents, and later ranked opponents period, for both teams the past two seasons, or when the cores of both teams really started playing for the most part, and compare their performances. I am not counting any ranked opponents from this year as I'm not certain any team both have played will be ranked by the end of the year. Naturally, points scored isn't a flawless stat, but its the best basic measurement we can get, and it does after all decide who wins or loses.
It's actually a bit serendipitious as nearly every game both teams have played against common ranked opponents have been within one week of each other, almost as if these two teams were meant to be compared as closely as you possibly can, and even more they mirror each other, with A&M starting strong and ending weak and TN starting weak and ending strong.
Disclaimer: I did a lot of math here when it comes to actual numbers. It's very possible I miss added something even after triple checking. The rough draft already had the Arkansas/A&M scores swapped but the math itself was correct everywhere else it seemed, so if you see a mistake point it out and i'll correct it.
2014:
2015:
Summation of this data and top 25 opponents period:
Conclusion
After doing my Barnett vs Garrett post earlier this week it was heavily commented that A&M plays in the West so their schedule is much harder and thus his stats should be worse (despite of course, TN's much stronger out of conference schedule and always playing Alabama, but I digress.)
So I decided to check out common AP ranked opponents, and later ranked opponents period, for both teams the past two seasons, or when the cores of both teams really started playing for the most part, and compare their performances. I am not counting any ranked opponents from this year as I'm not certain any team both have played will be ranked by the end of the year. Naturally, points scored isn't a flawless stat, but its the best basic measurement we can get, and it does after all decide who wins or loses.
It's actually a bit serendipitious as nearly every game both teams have played against common ranked opponents have been within one week of each other, almost as if these two teams were meant to be compared as closely as you possibly can, and even more they mirror each other, with A&M starting strong and ending weak and TN starting weak and ending strong.
Disclaimer: I did a lot of math here when it comes to actual numbers. It's very possible I miss added something even after triple checking. The rough draft already had the Arkansas/A&M scores swapped but the math itself was correct everywhere else it seemed, so if you see a mistake point it out and i'll correct it.
2014:
10/11
Texas A&M: 20
17 Mississippi:35
10/19 @ Mississippi
Tennessee: 3
17 Mississippi: 34
10/18 @ Alabama
Texas A&M: 0
4 Alabama: 59
10/25
Tennessee: 20
4 Alabama: 34
11/15
Texas A&M: 27
14 Mizzou: 34
11/22
Tennessee: 21
14 Mizzou: 29
Point Differentials
TN: 44-97
A&M: 47-128
We scored eerily similarly against top opponents, but they gave up 30 more points than we did. Both teams effectively got shut out once (They did, and we scored 3) and both teams lost by one possession to Mizzou, the team with closest talent to both teams.
Texas A&M: 20
17 Mississippi:35
10/19 @ Mississippi
Tennessee: 3
17 Mississippi: 34
10/18 @ Alabama
Texas A&M: 0
4 Alabama: 59
10/25
Tennessee: 20
4 Alabama: 34
11/15
Texas A&M: 27
14 Mizzou: 34
11/22
Tennessee: 21
14 Mizzou: 29
Point Differentials
TN: 44-97
A&M: 47-128
We scored eerily similarly against top opponents, but they gave up 30 more points than we did. Both teams effectively got shut out once (They did, and we scored 3) and both teams lost by one possession to Mizzou, the team with closest talent to both teams.
2015:
In 2015 we technically only played one common ranked opponent in Alabama. However, In order to get a bit more data I've decided to use 2015 Arkansas as a metric as well because even with their record, Vegas had them favored over multiple top 25 teams on neutral fields that year, and they are the only unranked team both teams played in the past 3 seasons to have that benefit.
9/26
Texas A&M: 28
Arkansas: 21
10/3
Tennessee: 20
Arkansas: 24
10/17
Texas A&M: 23
1 Alabama: 41
10/24
Tennessee: 14
1 Alabama: 19
Point Differentials
TN: 34-43
A&M: 51-62
So, while they outscored us by seventeen this time, they managed to lose far bigger than we did as well, however again, the team with the closest talent to both (Arkansas) was less than a one possession game for both teams.
9/26
Texas A&M: 28
Arkansas: 21
10/3
Tennessee: 20
Arkansas: 24
10/17
Texas A&M: 23
1 Alabama: 41
10/24
Tennessee: 14
1 Alabama: 19
Point Differentials
TN: 34-43
A&M: 51-62
So, while they outscored us by seventeen this time, they managed to lose far bigger than we did as well, however again, the team with the closest talent to both (Arkansas) was less than a one possession game for both teams.
Summation of this data and top 25 opponents period:
In two seasons against Common ranked (And Arkansas) Opponents, the differentials look like this
A&M: 98
Opponents: 191
+/- : -93
TN: 78
Opponents: 140
+/-: - 62
So, considering both teams only played one difference in home/away (Tennessee played @ mississippi, Both played home/home with Bama, and Both hosted Mizzou and Arkansas) we can conclude that while Tennessee scores at a slightly lower clip, they keep the games far closer as well.
But perhaps the biggest telling point is that against the best opponent, who also is the only outright ranked team both have played twice, Alabama, The Vols kept it somewhat respectable both years and nearly won once. A&M however got shut out once in one of the worst conference beatdowns in recent history 59-0 and gave up 40+ the next time.
In fact, against eight top 25 opponents the last two years? A&M has been outscored 290-152, including three games scoring less than ten. And against 3 top 10 opponents it's 123-26 including one shut out and a 3 point game.
Tennessee on the other hand? In their 8 top 25 games they have a scoring margin of 216-186 (including last year when they actually outscored their top 25 opponents 110-84, but only won one of those games.) 3 of their 4 top 10 opponents have been ranked at least top 5 (Georgia was #9 in 2014) and they've lost by a combined score of, 119-90, including no games less than two possessions. In an extra game against top 10 teams, TN still gave up less points than A&M did.
In three games against top 5 opponents, OU and Bama twice, Tennessee is sitting at 84-58.
A&M has only played top 5 Alabama twice. Their scores in those? 100-23.
Tennessee has played as many top 5 opponents (3 or 40% of their top 25 games), as A&M has played top 10 opponents period. And half of Tennessee's ranked opponents have been top 10.
Not much more to be said than that really other than Tennessee has been preparing itself better than most SEC west teams from a competition standpoint.
A&M: 98
Opponents: 191
+/- : -93
TN: 78
Opponents: 140
+/-: - 62
So, considering both teams only played one difference in home/away (Tennessee played @ mississippi, Both played home/home with Bama, and Both hosted Mizzou and Arkansas) we can conclude that while Tennessee scores at a slightly lower clip, they keep the games far closer as well.
But perhaps the biggest telling point is that against the best opponent, who also is the only outright ranked team both have played twice, Alabama, The Vols kept it somewhat respectable both years and nearly won once. A&M however got shut out once in one of the worst conference beatdowns in recent history 59-0 and gave up 40+ the next time.
In fact, against eight top 25 opponents the last two years? A&M has been outscored 290-152, including three games scoring less than ten. And against 3 top 10 opponents it's 123-26 including one shut out and a 3 point game.
Tennessee on the other hand? In their 8 top 25 games they have a scoring margin of 216-186 (including last year when they actually outscored their top 25 opponents 110-84, but only won one of those games.) 3 of their 4 top 10 opponents have been ranked at least top 5 (Georgia was #9 in 2014) and they've lost by a combined score of, 119-90, including no games less than two possessions. In an extra game against top 10 teams, TN still gave up less points than A&M did.
In three games against top 5 opponents, OU and Bama twice, Tennessee is sitting at 84-58.
A&M has only played top 5 Alabama twice. Their scores in those? 100-23.
Tennessee has played as many top 5 opponents (3 or 40% of their top 25 games), as A&M has played top 10 opponents period. And half of Tennessee's ranked opponents have been top 10.
Not much more to be said than that really other than Tennessee has been preparing itself better than most SEC west teams from a competition standpoint.
Conclusion
None of this means Tennessee should win naturally. However, it does further go to show that A&M recently seems to not show up for the truly big games against the best competion. But, from a statistical standpoint, they have to show up for one of these important games eventually. But it's also highly possible that even if they do they will lose anyway, either as a result of having not been here in recent memory, or the fact that Tennessee has been at the cusp of winning these big games for the past two and a half years, and it seems that they are starting to win them already.
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