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Usually I like to do these things after preseason games and at least see the newcomers play but that will not be happening this year for obvious reasons. So with three weeks to before the Volunteer Classic opens up I went ahead and proceeded to do my annual preseason primer. I hope you all enjoy.
1. Who will the offense run through?
In Barnes’ history at Tennessee he doesn’t have a star system but likes the offense to flow through one player. He usually has had the offense run through one player or a certain scheme and has done that in a variety of ways especially in close games. In year one it was Kevin Punter creating and getting him open. In years two and three it ran through Grant Williams in the post. In year four Barnes used pick and roll with the point guard (usually Bone, sometimes Turner) to distribute the scoring. And last year they started off with Jordan Bowden (using some of the schemes they used for Punter) trying to get him clean looks. Eventually they switched to John Fulkerson in isolation spots in the high post (and sometimes low post) and let everything flow through that.
This season I am fascinated by what the “go-to” offense will be. They can go back to Fulkerson and his high post game. They can use Santiago Vescovi’s passing ability in pick and roll with the big men. They could use Jaden Springer much like they used Punter in year one. They could even go isolation with Jaden Springer/Keon Johnson and bomb away from outside (especially if Yves Pons’ shot has improved). Or maybe Barnes will go more up tempo and look for mismatches. With COVID-19 and a lot of new pieces they could simplify it also. But I think Barnes is going to have some fun with this offense. The diversity of this team from an offensive perspective is incredibly intriguing.
2. Can a fourth post player be found?
Right now we know what the plan is at the 4 & 5 positions. Pons and Fulkerson getting a majority of minutes with newcomer grad transfer E.J. Anosike playing the bulk of the backup minutes. Barnes usually goes with 8-9 man rotations and with the amount of guard/wing combinations that Barnes can throw out there those three guys should be fine in big games. But we know how basketball works. Guys will get in foul trouble, there could be injuries and with COVID-19 you could easily have a player out for two weeks in a Thanos like snap.
So the Volunteers need to find a fourth big man and they have some options. Anosike is only 6’6 but he has the length and rebounding to play center minutes. Uros Plavsic is the current front runner because of his size and he had moments last year on offense. But his lack of athleticism and struggles on defense is a concern. Olivier Nkamhoua has a lot of physical skills but he looked lost last year. Drew Pember can shoot but his lack of strength and post skills really showed last year. And newcomer Corey Walker is impressive physically but is probably going to need some time adjusting as a post in college. The “fourth” post player won’t be the key to the season but somebody needs to step up and at least be competent. And if that doesn’t work Tennessee does have a potential back up plan in Josiah-Jordan James playing a small ball 4 like Pons. But it would be nice to have another decent center at 6’8 or taller.
3. Expect Tennessee to be incredibly aggressive on defense.
The last two years Tennessee’s lack of depth has meant a more relaxed and conservative defense from Rick Barnes. Barnes was hoping to be more “in your face” on the defensive end but once Lamonte Turner went down for the year and the three freshmen posts were not ready for SEC basketball Barnes had to alter his plans. Barnes always plays to stop points in the paint and take chances with opponents hitting three pointers (a consistent source of frustration on VolNation) and I doubt Barnes will change that philosophy overall. This year however I believe the coaching staff will implement more aggressive schemes.
Tennessee has a ton of depth this year. They have a full allotment of scholarship players which wasn’t the case last year. They can take chances and can sub guys in so the main rotational players can play harder on defense. Plus the length and athleticism on the wings is wild. Victor Bailey drew praise at Oregon for his defensive intensity. James was a standout in SEC play on defense. Springer has the athleticism to be a stout defender. Pons is extremely versatile on defense. Johnson projects as a potentially elite NBA (!!!) defender. Fulkerson is very good against the pick and roll. Anosike plays his ass off on defense from reports. Hell Davonte Gaines showed amazing effort on defense last year. With all the length and athleticism (and lack of a traditional center) Barnes should not be afraid to try more switching to prevent three point attempts. And I would also suggest more pressing and trapping so this team can run and get potentially easy buckets. This could be the best defensive team in the SEC. I truly believe that.
4. YOU GET A POINT GUARD! YOU GET A POINT GUARD! EVERYONE GETS A POINT GUARRRRRDDDDDD!!!!!
I feel like Rick Barnes is making up for the lack of stability at point guard Tennessee had before he arrived. By my count Tennessee has four guys that can play significant minutes at point guard and not be a considerable drop off at the position. And all four players bring a different skill set to the table.
Vescovi can bring pick and roll passing with lethal three point shooting. Bailey also brings shooting and dynamic defense to the table. Springer brings the scoring punch and can create offense at any time. Then James gives you a potential play-maker with height that can lock down on defense (though for my opinion I don’t like JJJ at PG very much). And all four can play off the ball too. It’s a wonderful thing to have. For my money I like Vescovi as the lead guard because of play-making and shooting and I think he will start there (and get the most minutes). Springer is more of a scorer than distributor but I love having that scoring punch from the lead guard position. Watching his film you see how natural of a play-maker he is with the ball in his hands. Tennessee has a huge luxury this year at the guard position which is really nice to have after how tough last year was.
5. The first starting lineup won’t be the only starting lineup. Expect a lot of different rotations early.
This is the most talent that Rick Barnes has ever had at Tennessee and that is something you never complain about. But this season will bring some different challenges that Barnes must navigate through and the big one is trying to figure out his best rotations. With all of the different skill-sets Tennessee possesses from a talent perspective Barnes is going to do a lot of different things early. You are going to see a variety of substitutions and maybe some rotations that scratch your head. There will be a lot of experimenting going on to find the best combinations. And I guarantee you there are going to be different starting lineups.
This year Barnes has the luxury of sending a message to guys this year. Last year the players got away with some things Barnes normally does not tolerate. This year that won’t be the case with the plethora of options he can use. If you miss a rotation on defense you are going to get pulled. You commit a dumb turnover you will get pulled. You take a bad shot and it better not happen again. Barnes wants to find his best rotations by March and it takes some time to shuffle and find the right ones. So do not panic if there are some interesting substitutions in the non-conference.
6. Can Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson be elite?
I take online basketball reports and five minute practice videos with huge grains of salt. They are tempting to fall for especially since almost all of them are portrayed in a positive light (I remember the infamous “ZACK KENT IS THE BEST POST PLAYER IN PRACTICE” report from volquest.com last year). But one constant this offseason has been how good both Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson have looked since they stepped on campus. Johnson has been getting absolute raving reports and Springer seems to be a legitimate NBA talent scorer. Both were highly sought after and some mock drafts already have them as first round picks (and a few have one or the other as lottery picks).
You have to be careful with preseason expectations on freshman players. A lot can go wrong and playing in practice against known commodities compared to legitimate opponents is an entirely different animal. But if Springer is that electric with the ball in his hands and Johnson is that much of a two way monster as reports suggest...Tennessee goes from a legitimate top 20 team to a national title contender. I’m not projecting that is going to happen. But if those two players are elite All-SEC first team types in 2020-2021 then there is a great chance Tennessee can become Final Four contenders in March.
7. Rebounding, Rebounding, Rebounding
The last two years Tennessee has ranked near the bottom of defensive rebounding in the SEC. Besides the lack of guard play it cost Tennessee a chance at the NCAA Tournament last year (or potential berth since there wasn’t a NCAAT in 2020). Barnes getting E.J. Anosike was an awesome fix for the problem. He’s one of the country’s best rebounders and loves to play tough inside. He provides a lot of dirty work and some increased team strength that Tennessee needs.
But other guys have to step up. James really went on a mission the last few weeks of the season to be aggressive on the boards. He needs to keep that up. Pons is an absolutely amazing shot blocker but sometimes he needs to tone down the aggression and prepare for the rebound. I get that the blocked shot brings glory but rebounds win you championships. And hopefully more defensive switching can lead to rebounds. If you switch and aren’t trying to chase back to your man you don’t leave yourself as vulnerable to offensive rebounds. If you are going to give up three point attempts then you need to be an excellent rebounding team. Tennessee needs to mature and improve in this department for 2020-2021.
8. The improvement of Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James
Last year both players had too much on their plate. James had a hard time getting healthy and was not ready for such a large offensive role that came to him after Turner’s injury. The coaching staff wanted to ease Vescovi in but the lack of depth forced him into considerable action when the game was too fast for him to start his career. The good news is that gaining experience is never a negative and both players got an array of it last year. And even with COVID restrictions Barnes has praised both players for their work in the offseason.
I’ve lost some faith in James from an offensive perspective and potential NBA player but his defense and rebounding traits are off the charts. Tennessee needs a glue guy and James could be perfect in that spot. I’ve said he could become a better shooting J.P. Prince and that is a huge compliment. A plus defender that can do a multitude of things on the court without being a supreme scorer is a wonderful facet to any program. There were some frustrations with James not being an instant offensive play-maker but with Springer and an improved Vescovi that leaves James to focus more on cutting/finishing at the rim and hitting open three pointers.
Vescovi really impressed me last year and he will be better as a sophomore. His defense needs work and he will never be elite but the way he can control the flow of a game on the offensive end is impressive. His shooting will always play and he can either pull up or spot up with precision. With Springer, Bailey and Johnson on the wings he should have even more space to drive and create. Even with the questionable defense he was not afraid to go and grab rebounds. Plus with more depth Tennessee should push the ball more and that will play to his strengths. If both players can stay healthy and get comfortable in their roles Tennessee will have two overqualified building blocks for the next 3-4 years.
9. What do John Fulkerson and Yves Pons need to show this year?
It’s funny how deep we have gotten and haven’t mentioned much about Fulkerson and Pons yet. Both guys will start and be big contributors in 2020-2021. They will be the leaders of the team as seniors and both made huge strides last year becoming full time starters. The one thing Barnes and his coaching staff have shown is if you work hard and listen, you will show significant improvement. Both players are a testament to the outstanding player development at Tennessee and is a huge recruiting pitch for potential prospects.
Pons would love to showcase some dribbling ability for the NBA but I doubt we see much of that from him with so many guards on the roster. For me I want to see him become a knockdown shooter. I was actually impressed with the improvements he made last year (35% on almost three attempts per game is nothing to sneeze at) but with him getting the majority of the minutes at the 4 and with how much guard play Tennessee has, the offense will need all the spacing it can get. If he can shoot four 3-pointers a game and shoot 37-38% that would be an absolutely fantastic number and really make the offense elite.
For Fulkerson he needs to be a better rebounder. He might not see the ball in his hands as much as he did last year. That means Tennessee needs him to play stronger. He’s tough as hell and plays his ass off. He is asked to cover a lot of ground in pick and roll situations and he does a great job of that. Not all of the rebounding woes are his fault, far from it. But he needs to use his athleticism and length better and improve his instincts to become an improved rebounder. If he can do that then Tennessee will be in a great position.
10. What is the ceiling for Tennessee in 2020-2021?
First we must put a caveat that we are assuming no major injuries or any major COVID outbreaks which is far from a guarantee for the Volunteers this year before we answer the questions. A lot can happen this year and like in football it will be difficult to make clear statements with such a situation everyone is dealing with for the first time.
This is Barnes’ most talented and deepest team. He has potentially 7 guards/wings he can play and has three senior post players that all provide a different skill-set to compliment one another. He has two stud freshmen coming in that are potential NBA lottery picks. Tennessee returns 7 of their top 9 players in mpg (excluding Turner). He returns four starters. Plus the roster has a lot of depth with three 5* and four 4* players on the roster.
There are some concerns however. Tennessee must find a primary point guard. Tennessee has to shore up their defensive rebounding. Will Barnes be willing to play a more up tempo game this year (especially since this roster fits that style perfectly)? Will Tennessee find a way to stop giving up a ton of three pointers? Plus add in the fact Tennessee has to gel four newcomers in the rotation during a pandemic and none of that is easy.
But this team has a chance to be special. If Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson are legitimate NBA lottery talents (big if) then Tennessee bumps to national title contenders with the role players they have surrounding them. This is a guaranteed tournament team and they should finish top 3 in the SEC standings. A top 5 NCAAT seed should be the expectation. I think asking for conference championships or a Final Four is being a little greedy but the ceiling is there. And unlike last year where the questions were more on the worry side, the questions this year are mainly positive ones. There is so much to potentially like about this team and other than a legitimate 6’11 center (which 99% of college teams need) Tennessee has everything you want. It will be nice to have a really good basketball team on Rocky Top to distract us from everything going on. It should be a really fun season.
1. Who will the offense run through?
In Barnes’ history at Tennessee he doesn’t have a star system but likes the offense to flow through one player. He usually has had the offense run through one player or a certain scheme and has done that in a variety of ways especially in close games. In year one it was Kevin Punter creating and getting him open. In years two and three it ran through Grant Williams in the post. In year four Barnes used pick and roll with the point guard (usually Bone, sometimes Turner) to distribute the scoring. And last year they started off with Jordan Bowden (using some of the schemes they used for Punter) trying to get him clean looks. Eventually they switched to John Fulkerson in isolation spots in the high post (and sometimes low post) and let everything flow through that.
This season I am fascinated by what the “go-to” offense will be. They can go back to Fulkerson and his high post game. They can use Santiago Vescovi’s passing ability in pick and roll with the big men. They could use Jaden Springer much like they used Punter in year one. They could even go isolation with Jaden Springer/Keon Johnson and bomb away from outside (especially if Yves Pons’ shot has improved). Or maybe Barnes will go more up tempo and look for mismatches. With COVID-19 and a lot of new pieces they could simplify it also. But I think Barnes is going to have some fun with this offense. The diversity of this team from an offensive perspective is incredibly intriguing.
2. Can a fourth post player be found?
Right now we know what the plan is at the 4 & 5 positions. Pons and Fulkerson getting a majority of minutes with newcomer grad transfer E.J. Anosike playing the bulk of the backup minutes. Barnes usually goes with 8-9 man rotations and with the amount of guard/wing combinations that Barnes can throw out there those three guys should be fine in big games. But we know how basketball works. Guys will get in foul trouble, there could be injuries and with COVID-19 you could easily have a player out for two weeks in a Thanos like snap.
So the Volunteers need to find a fourth big man and they have some options. Anosike is only 6’6 but he has the length and rebounding to play center minutes. Uros Plavsic is the current front runner because of his size and he had moments last year on offense. But his lack of athleticism and struggles on defense is a concern. Olivier Nkamhoua has a lot of physical skills but he looked lost last year. Drew Pember can shoot but his lack of strength and post skills really showed last year. And newcomer Corey Walker is impressive physically but is probably going to need some time adjusting as a post in college. The “fourth” post player won’t be the key to the season but somebody needs to step up and at least be competent. And if that doesn’t work Tennessee does have a potential back up plan in Josiah-Jordan James playing a small ball 4 like Pons. But it would be nice to have another decent center at 6’8 or taller.
3. Expect Tennessee to be incredibly aggressive on defense.
The last two years Tennessee’s lack of depth has meant a more relaxed and conservative defense from Rick Barnes. Barnes was hoping to be more “in your face” on the defensive end but once Lamonte Turner went down for the year and the three freshmen posts were not ready for SEC basketball Barnes had to alter his plans. Barnes always plays to stop points in the paint and take chances with opponents hitting three pointers (a consistent source of frustration on VolNation) and I doubt Barnes will change that philosophy overall. This year however I believe the coaching staff will implement more aggressive schemes.
Tennessee has a ton of depth this year. They have a full allotment of scholarship players which wasn’t the case last year. They can take chances and can sub guys in so the main rotational players can play harder on defense. Plus the length and athleticism on the wings is wild. Victor Bailey drew praise at Oregon for his defensive intensity. James was a standout in SEC play on defense. Springer has the athleticism to be a stout defender. Pons is extremely versatile on defense. Johnson projects as a potentially elite NBA (!!!) defender. Fulkerson is very good against the pick and roll. Anosike plays his ass off on defense from reports. Hell Davonte Gaines showed amazing effort on defense last year. With all the length and athleticism (and lack of a traditional center) Barnes should not be afraid to try more switching to prevent three point attempts. And I would also suggest more pressing and trapping so this team can run and get potentially easy buckets. This could be the best defensive team in the SEC. I truly believe that.
4. YOU GET A POINT GUARD! YOU GET A POINT GUARD! EVERYONE GETS A POINT GUARRRRRDDDDDD!!!!!
I feel like Rick Barnes is making up for the lack of stability at point guard Tennessee had before he arrived. By my count Tennessee has four guys that can play significant minutes at point guard and not be a considerable drop off at the position. And all four players bring a different skill set to the table.
Vescovi can bring pick and roll passing with lethal three point shooting. Bailey also brings shooting and dynamic defense to the table. Springer brings the scoring punch and can create offense at any time. Then James gives you a potential play-maker with height that can lock down on defense (though for my opinion I don’t like JJJ at PG very much). And all four can play off the ball too. It’s a wonderful thing to have. For my money I like Vescovi as the lead guard because of play-making and shooting and I think he will start there (and get the most minutes). Springer is more of a scorer than distributor but I love having that scoring punch from the lead guard position. Watching his film you see how natural of a play-maker he is with the ball in his hands. Tennessee has a huge luxury this year at the guard position which is really nice to have after how tough last year was.
5. The first starting lineup won’t be the only starting lineup. Expect a lot of different rotations early.
This is the most talent that Rick Barnes has ever had at Tennessee and that is something you never complain about. But this season will bring some different challenges that Barnes must navigate through and the big one is trying to figure out his best rotations. With all of the different skill-sets Tennessee possesses from a talent perspective Barnes is going to do a lot of different things early. You are going to see a variety of substitutions and maybe some rotations that scratch your head. There will be a lot of experimenting going on to find the best combinations. And I guarantee you there are going to be different starting lineups.
This year Barnes has the luxury of sending a message to guys this year. Last year the players got away with some things Barnes normally does not tolerate. This year that won’t be the case with the plethora of options he can use. If you miss a rotation on defense you are going to get pulled. You commit a dumb turnover you will get pulled. You take a bad shot and it better not happen again. Barnes wants to find his best rotations by March and it takes some time to shuffle and find the right ones. So do not panic if there are some interesting substitutions in the non-conference.
6. Can Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson be elite?
I take online basketball reports and five minute practice videos with huge grains of salt. They are tempting to fall for especially since almost all of them are portrayed in a positive light (I remember the infamous “ZACK KENT IS THE BEST POST PLAYER IN PRACTICE” report from volquest.com last year). But one constant this offseason has been how good both Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson have looked since they stepped on campus. Johnson has been getting absolute raving reports and Springer seems to be a legitimate NBA talent scorer. Both were highly sought after and some mock drafts already have them as first round picks (and a few have one or the other as lottery picks).
You have to be careful with preseason expectations on freshman players. A lot can go wrong and playing in practice against known commodities compared to legitimate opponents is an entirely different animal. But if Springer is that electric with the ball in his hands and Johnson is that much of a two way monster as reports suggest...Tennessee goes from a legitimate top 20 team to a national title contender. I’m not projecting that is going to happen. But if those two players are elite All-SEC first team types in 2020-2021 then there is a great chance Tennessee can become Final Four contenders in March.
7. Rebounding, Rebounding, Rebounding
The last two years Tennessee has ranked near the bottom of defensive rebounding in the SEC. Besides the lack of guard play it cost Tennessee a chance at the NCAA Tournament last year (or potential berth since there wasn’t a NCAAT in 2020). Barnes getting E.J. Anosike was an awesome fix for the problem. He’s one of the country’s best rebounders and loves to play tough inside. He provides a lot of dirty work and some increased team strength that Tennessee needs.
But other guys have to step up. James really went on a mission the last few weeks of the season to be aggressive on the boards. He needs to keep that up. Pons is an absolutely amazing shot blocker but sometimes he needs to tone down the aggression and prepare for the rebound. I get that the blocked shot brings glory but rebounds win you championships. And hopefully more defensive switching can lead to rebounds. If you switch and aren’t trying to chase back to your man you don’t leave yourself as vulnerable to offensive rebounds. If you are going to give up three point attempts then you need to be an excellent rebounding team. Tennessee needs to mature and improve in this department for 2020-2021.
8. The improvement of Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James
Last year both players had too much on their plate. James had a hard time getting healthy and was not ready for such a large offensive role that came to him after Turner’s injury. The coaching staff wanted to ease Vescovi in but the lack of depth forced him into considerable action when the game was too fast for him to start his career. The good news is that gaining experience is never a negative and both players got an array of it last year. And even with COVID restrictions Barnes has praised both players for their work in the offseason.
I’ve lost some faith in James from an offensive perspective and potential NBA player but his defense and rebounding traits are off the charts. Tennessee needs a glue guy and James could be perfect in that spot. I’ve said he could become a better shooting J.P. Prince and that is a huge compliment. A plus defender that can do a multitude of things on the court without being a supreme scorer is a wonderful facet to any program. There were some frustrations with James not being an instant offensive play-maker but with Springer and an improved Vescovi that leaves James to focus more on cutting/finishing at the rim and hitting open three pointers.
Vescovi really impressed me last year and he will be better as a sophomore. His defense needs work and he will never be elite but the way he can control the flow of a game on the offensive end is impressive. His shooting will always play and he can either pull up or spot up with precision. With Springer, Bailey and Johnson on the wings he should have even more space to drive and create. Even with the questionable defense he was not afraid to go and grab rebounds. Plus with more depth Tennessee should push the ball more and that will play to his strengths. If both players can stay healthy and get comfortable in their roles Tennessee will have two overqualified building blocks for the next 3-4 years.
9. What do John Fulkerson and Yves Pons need to show this year?
It’s funny how deep we have gotten and haven’t mentioned much about Fulkerson and Pons yet. Both guys will start and be big contributors in 2020-2021. They will be the leaders of the team as seniors and both made huge strides last year becoming full time starters. The one thing Barnes and his coaching staff have shown is if you work hard and listen, you will show significant improvement. Both players are a testament to the outstanding player development at Tennessee and is a huge recruiting pitch for potential prospects.
Pons would love to showcase some dribbling ability for the NBA but I doubt we see much of that from him with so many guards on the roster. For me I want to see him become a knockdown shooter. I was actually impressed with the improvements he made last year (35% on almost three attempts per game is nothing to sneeze at) but with him getting the majority of the minutes at the 4 and with how much guard play Tennessee has, the offense will need all the spacing it can get. If he can shoot four 3-pointers a game and shoot 37-38% that would be an absolutely fantastic number and really make the offense elite.
For Fulkerson he needs to be a better rebounder. He might not see the ball in his hands as much as he did last year. That means Tennessee needs him to play stronger. He’s tough as hell and plays his ass off. He is asked to cover a lot of ground in pick and roll situations and he does a great job of that. Not all of the rebounding woes are his fault, far from it. But he needs to use his athleticism and length better and improve his instincts to become an improved rebounder. If he can do that then Tennessee will be in a great position.
10. What is the ceiling for Tennessee in 2020-2021?
First we must put a caveat that we are assuming no major injuries or any major COVID outbreaks which is far from a guarantee for the Volunteers this year before we answer the questions. A lot can happen this year and like in football it will be difficult to make clear statements with such a situation everyone is dealing with for the first time.
This is Barnes’ most talented and deepest team. He has potentially 7 guards/wings he can play and has three senior post players that all provide a different skill-set to compliment one another. He has two stud freshmen coming in that are potential NBA lottery picks. Tennessee returns 7 of their top 9 players in mpg (excluding Turner). He returns four starters. Plus the roster has a lot of depth with three 5* and four 4* players on the roster.
There are some concerns however. Tennessee must find a primary point guard. Tennessee has to shore up their defensive rebounding. Will Barnes be willing to play a more up tempo game this year (especially since this roster fits that style perfectly)? Will Tennessee find a way to stop giving up a ton of three pointers? Plus add in the fact Tennessee has to gel four newcomers in the rotation during a pandemic and none of that is easy.
But this team has a chance to be special. If Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson are legitimate NBA lottery talents (big if) then Tennessee bumps to national title contenders with the role players they have surrounding them. This is a guaranteed tournament team and they should finish top 3 in the SEC standings. A top 5 NCAAT seed should be the expectation. I think asking for conference championships or a Final Four is being a little greedy but the ceiling is there. And unlike last year where the questions were more on the worry side, the questions this year are mainly positive ones. There is so much to potentially like about this team and other than a legitimate 6’11 center (which 99% of college teams need) Tennessee has everything you want. It will be nice to have a really good basketball team on Rocky Top to distract us from everything going on. It should be a really fun season.
