Talent for a National Championship for the first time since Fulmer

#26
#26
89 VOLS grad said:
Great point! The recruiting has been solid, but not exceptional! UT also hasn't done nearly as good at teams like Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss and many others in the portal. Heuple and staff really need to step up their game in the portal for UT to take another step toward being ELITE!!!
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Granted we have not signed as many out of the portal, but the only way to gauge the effectiveness is on the field. Needs actually met after analysis of those available. That is TBD everywhere. Right or wrong I prefer a higher portion of HS guys and selective use of portal.
 
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#27
#27
GUNTERSVOL said:
Granted we have not signed as many out of the portal, but the only way to gauge the effectiveness is on the field. Needs actually met after analysis of those available. That is TBD everywhere. Right or wrong I prefer a higher portion of HS guys and selective use of portal.
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I wonder if it just comes down to different teams having different philosophies when it comes to attacking the portal. Like, some teams use the portal more "surgical" to address specific needs, here and there, while continuing to develop the players they have. Then others just want as many of the best players available, regardless of position, and arent afraid to flip large portions of their rosters to get them.
 
#29
#29

​

Enough talk, show me the 2025 Blue-Chip Ratio​

SchoolBCR
Alabama89%
Ohio State89%
Georgia84%
Texas A&M82%
Oregon78%
Texas78%
LSU73%
Notre Dame73%
Oklahoma70%
Penn State68%
Miami64%
Florida64%
Auburn64%
Michigan57%
USC57%
Clemson55%
Tennessee54%
Florida State54%


Tennessee and Florida State return to the fold for the first time in a while. If I had to guess, South Carolina and Ole Miss are likely to make the list grow to 20 in 2026, and no other school is remotely close to joining the club.

www.cbssports.com

Blue-Chip Ratio 2025: These 18 college football teams can actually win the national championship

Breaking down the programs that have done well enough on the recruiting trail to win the CFP in the 2025 season
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com

​

With new roster management rules now in effect, including the end of the 25 initial counter cap and more attention paid to the 85-man limit, it's worth briefly explaining how the BCR is calculated.

  • Only signed scholarship players from high school or JUCO count.

  • Walk-ons don't count, even if later placed on scholarship.

  • If a player signs but never enrolls, he still counts.

  • If a player signs, is released and signs elsewhere, he counts for the new school.

  • JUCO-bound signees still count -- the school used one of its spots.
All data is verified manually using the 247Sports Composite, which blends the major recruiting rankings.
 
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#30
#30
Recent Champions and their Blue-Chip Ratios

  • 2024: Ohio State (90%)
  • 2023: Michigan (54%)

  • 2022: Georgia (77%)

  • 2021: Georgia (80%)

  • 2020: Alabama (83%)

  • 2019: LSU (64%)

  • 2018: Clemson (61%)

  • 2017: Alabama (80%)

  • 2016: Clemson (52%)

  • 2015: Alabama (77%)

  • 2014: Ohio State (68%)

  • 2013: Florida State (53%)

  • 2012: Alabama (71%)

  • 2011: Alabama (71%)
 
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#31
#31
Vegas over & under total wins for Tennessee is 8.5. That's a long way from making the playoffs. Vols go to Uf, Bama, & Have Okie (top 20 preseason) and Uga at home. Then there is pesky Arkie, and Vandy with Diego back. Heuple better have a rabbit under his hat.
 
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#34
#34
WillisWG said:
No walk-ons aren't included. If you reach the 105 cap you can't have any either
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Then surely we’ll see a team win below the 50% mark in the near future since the number of overall 4 and 5 star plays hasn’t increased. Due to it being a ratio, what might have equaled 60% on a 85 man roster would equal about 48% on a 105 man roster.
 
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#37
#37
adam.vol said:
Then surely we’ll see a team win below the 50% mark in the near future since the number of overall 4 and 5 star plays hasn’t increased. Due to it being a ratio, what might have equaled 60% on a 85 man roster would equal about 48% on a 105 man roster.
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Yep you're right 105 will dilute the BCR, so they will likely be change to how BCR is calculated. BCR's source data comes from 247 but 247 Class grading model tries to mirror the NFL Draft, so 5 star status are limited to 32 players only by mimicking the NFL Day One selections with Day 2/3 draftees being 4 stars. 247's crystal ball ain't that good. Other recruiting services limit star ratings based on a percentage which isn't much better.

BCR still has value but I prefer the Team Talent Composite over BCR. BCR says we're moving in the right direction TTC says we got work to do.

https://247sports.com/season/2024-football/collegeteamtalentcomposite/?Conference=SEC 2025 will be out last August.

1753116667628.png
 
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#40
#40
89 VOLS grad said:
UGA's QB is trash! I know lots thought we had a good chance to win last year. I think the chance is even better this year at home! Getting them early with question marks for both teams should play in our favor at home! I also think UTs D could be comparable to UGA's this year.
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Catching them early is probably to our advantage, though am not certain our QB outlook is much better...am optimistic, but who knows
 
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#41
#41
njvols said:
Catching them early is probably to our advantage, though am not certain our QB outlook is much better...am optimistic, but who knows
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We used to play uf early every year and that wasn't always so great.
We have a veteran QB who needs to be better at protecting the ball. Talent is there.
We have mostly unproven talent at WR, but the talent is there.
Same for o-line and RB. Talent is there.
The defense should be really good again.

Time to put it all together. We have a tough schedule, but every SEC team can say that. I think 10 wins and a playoff spot are attainable. One at a time though. And don't get cocky or complacent.
 
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#43
#43
adam.vol said:
Then surely we’ll see a team win below the 50% mark in the near future since the number of overall 4 and 5 star plays hasn’t increased. Due to it being a ratio, what might have equaled 60% on a 85 man roster would equal about 48% on a 105 man roster.
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I wish I had Bud Elliott's number so i could call him up and deliver this news. I'm not being facetious. Your'e absolutely right. But I was also wondering how transfers and the portals factor into this, because unless it does, it's fairly useless.
 
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#45
#45
adam.vol said:
Then surely we’ll see a team win below the 50% mark in the near future since the number of overall 4 and 5 star plays hasn’t increased. Due to it being a ratio, what might have equaled 60% on a 85 man roster would equal about 48% on a 105 man roster.
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Unlikely because there have only been 3 teams below 60%. It isn’t as if teams are consistently in the 50% range and winning it all
 
#47
#47
Brave Volunteer said:
We are moving in the right direction, albeit at a more glacial.pace than I would prefer. But as long as our trajectory continues to be on the incline, I cant complain.
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Honestly, no matter how things turn out in the end, what matters most to me is that the direction of the program stays consistent. If Josh Heupel is still our head coach ten years from now, and we are regularly hitting 10 or 11 wins with a shot at the playoff, I see that as a huge accomplishment. That kind of sustained success would mean more to me than a one-off national title followed by a collapse, like LSU had in 2019. They had the best team in the country that year, but where are they now? That kind of flash-in-the-pan success feels hollow in comparison to a stable, competitive program that earns national respect year in and year out.


What I want is a culture of winning, not just a lucky season. If we can rebuild Tennessee’s reputation as a consistent contender, that puts us in a stronger position for the future. Just like Georgia made the jump from being good under Mark Richt to becoming elite under Kirby Smart, we could eventually take that next step too. But it starts with building the right foundation. Without that consistency, any short-term success will fade just as fast as it came.


So to me, even if Heupel never wins a national championship, he will still be the coach who brought Tennessee football back. If he is the one who helped rebuild our brand, reestablish our culture, and return us to national relevance, then that legacy matters. Wins are important, no doubt, but building something that lasts matters more. In my eyes, Heupel is the one who saved the program.
 
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