stock market was up today...

#11,976
#11,976
volgr said:
I'm sure the Biden Administration will have them sky high before long. Blue collar working class Americans don't have the luxury of working from home. Yeah, this may be a boon for the city dwelling soy sippers who work from home and don't own a car, but it has real world impacts for many others.
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Obama was supposed to moon-shot energy prices too. Trump was supposed to implode the economy. "This politician I don't like is going to wreck the economy" isn't usually a great strategy.
 
#11,977
#11,977
05_never_again said:
The US is the world's largest energy producer, and rising oil prices are good for the frackers in particular. Rising energy prices isn't an unequivocal negative thing for the United States. Banks are rallying because the yield curve is steepening, not necessarily the money printing itself. Both industries employ a ton of people here.
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Correct.

If energy stocks had dropped 60%, people here would be after Biden for destroying the sector.
 
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#11,978
#11,978
Velo Vol said:
Correct.

If energy stocks had dropped 60%, people here would be after Biden for destroying the sector.
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Yep. I remember hearing a lot about Obama "trying to destroy the fracking jobs." Ironically, that industry boomed while he was President. He had nothing to do with it, but it boomed while he was in office.
 
#11,979
#11,979
05_never_again said:
Yep. I remember hearing a lot about Obama "trying to destroy the fracking jobs." Ironically, that industry boomed while he was President. He had nothing to do with it, but it boomed while he was in office.
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I remember Bill Clinton getting a lot of credit for the economy while the dot com thing was going on. He had zero to do with that. Your observation is spot on.
 
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#11,981
#11,981
SpaceCoastVol said:
I remember Bill Clinton getting a lot of credit for the economy while the dot com thing was going on. He had zero to do with that. Your observation is spot on.
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Yep. The 90s were a great time to be President. Cold War was over, economy boomed as the result of a technological/productivity revolution. If H.W. won in 1992, he would have gone down as one of the most popular Presidents. Maybe not Reagan or Clinton level because he didn't have the personal charisma of those guys, but he'd be up there. Presidents are largely defined by things that occur during their terms in office that they had nothing to do with.
 
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#11,984
#11,984
volgr said:
Obama did moon shot energy prices. Trump did bring them down.
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lol

Oil prices recovered and rose as we emerged from the GFC peaking just north of 100 towards the end of Obama's second term. From 2011 until 2016, crude steadily fell from 113 to 50, which is basically where it was when he took over. Under Trump, oil rallied from 50 to 70, then collapsed due to COVID, but had recovered to about 50 by the time he left office.

Stop looking at everything through the lens of politics. There is no lever that says "economy" in the Oval Office. You sound like liberals did during Dubya's term, who said he was raising oil prices to help his oil buddies.
 
#11,985
#11,985
05_never_again said:
lol

Oil prices recovered and rose as we emerged from the GFC peaking just north of 100 towards the end of Obama's second term. From 2011 until 2016, crude steadily fell from 113 to 50, which is basically where it was when he took over. Under Trump, oil rallied from 50 to 70, then collapsed due to COVID, but had recovered to about 50 by the time he left office.

Stop looking at everything through the lens of politics. There is no lever that says "economy" in the Oval Office. You sound like liberals did during Dubya's term, who said he was raising oil prices to help his oil buddies.
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Interesting too, the firearm industry was a boom under Obama. Right out of the gate with Biden it looks that way as well - can't find ammo anywhere. School shootings under Obama and COVID supply chain issues under Trump/Biden play a part - but over the last 12 years it seems like oil and gun business certainly hasn't suffered.
 
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#11,986
#11,986
rjd970 said:
Interesting too, the firearm industry was a boom under Obama. Right out of the gate with Biden it looks that way as well - can't find ammo anywhere. School shootings under Obama and COVID supply chain issues under Trump/Biden play a part - but over the last 12 years it seems like oil and gun business certainly hasn't suffered.
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Obama was the greatest gun salesman who ever lived. He sure as hell didn't try to be, but he was.
 
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#11,989
#11,989
85SugarVol said:
Rates...
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Powell basically gave the green light on inflation saying he wasn’t inclined to raise the funds rate even if inflation ticked up a bit.

It’s an untenable situation. If Powell raises the Fed funds rate the government gets destroyed on interest. If he doesn’t raise the funds rate and the economy starts to recover inflation takes off.
 
#11,990
#11,990
NorthDallas40 said:
Powell basically gave the green light on inflation saying he wasn’t inclined to raise the funds rate even if inflation ticked up a bit.

It’s an untenable situation. If Powell raises the Fed funds rate the government gets destroyed on interest. If he doesn’t raise the funds rate and the economy starts to recover inflation takes off.
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And it has been since QE1. Once the FED engaged in counterfeiting/printing money (or what you all call stimulus), then there was no turning back.
 
#11,993
#11,993
85SugarVol said:
The 10 year is up what, 50% so far on the year?
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The 10y started the year at about 91 bps...currently trading 1.49%. Gigantic move on a % basis in a really short period of time. It'll have an effect. They were trading at 50 bps as recently as last August, and at the peak of the COVID panic they were as low as 40 bps.

I do wonder though if today's bad auction was a trademark "blow off" type of move that exhausted the trend on a short-to-intermediate term basis, and we might get some relief over the next several weeks.
 
#11,994
#11,994
05_never_again said:
The 10y started the year at about 91 bps...currently trading 1.49%. Gigantic move on a % basis in a really short period of time. It'll have an effect. They were trading at 50 bps as recently as last August, and at the peak of the COVID panic they were as low as 40 bps.

I do wonder though if today's bad auction was a trademark "blow off" type of move that exhausted the trend on a short-to-intermediate term basis, and we might get some relief over the next several weeks.
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I think it hit 1.6% today...
 
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