stock market was up today...

[85SugarVol]

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

View attachment 289607

Make sense of this...

Unemployment Payments Top $100 Billion in June

 

[MontyPython]

You might be on to something. The five year chart looks great...
View attachment 289300

Of course you could also look for stock in a "disinfectant"...
View attachment 289301

Well played.

Always amazes me to see anyone talk about (much less invest in) penny stocks.

THERE'S A REASON THEY'RE CHEAP!

Lawdy. People, for the love of Jebus, stay away from penny stocks.

 

[85SugarVol]

Make sense of this...

Unemployment Payments Top $100 Billion in June

Simple. The Federal Government is paying people not to work.

If you could make more in unemployment benefits than you could working, would you go back to work?

The $600 payments need to end, or be greatly reduced. We are out of alignment, and it’s an easy arbitrage play for millions.

 

[Orangeburst]

Simple. The Federal Government is paying people not to work.

If you could make more in unemployment benefits than you could working, would you go back to work?

The $600 payments need to end, or be greatly reduced. We are out of alignment, and it’s an easy arbitrage play for millions.

From my understanding, ends in July if no additional legislation.

 

[MontyPython]

Apple to shutter 30 more retail stores, bringing total to 77 in U.S.
Published: July 1, 2020 at 2:54 p.m. ET

Citing a spike in the coronavirus pandemic, Apple Inc. AAPL, 0.06% on Wednesday said it has decided to re-close 30 of its retail stores in the U.S., bringing the nationwide total to 77. The stores affected are in Alabama, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas, and Utah. "

 

[MontyPython]

Simple. The Federal Government is paying people not to work.

If you could make more in unemployment benefits than you could working, would you go back to work?

The $600 payments need to end, or be greatly reduced. We are out of alignment, and it’s an easy arbitrage play for millions.

For a capitalist society, I'm not sure Trump/Congress could pass a more communist piece of legislation. Many/Most people make more just sitting on their asses now than having a job. Good friend of mine owns a retail operation in NC, and can't find adults willing to work. She's hiring 14 and 15 year-old kids instead.

If the virus has been "beat" like idiot Trump says, then no additional communist $600/week sit on your ass payments should be made.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Simple. The Federal Government is paying people not to work.

If you could make more in unemployment benefits than you could working, would you go back to work?

The $600 payments need to end, or be greatly reduced. We are out of alignment, and it’s an easy arbitrage play for millions.

When I was asking to make sense of all of this, I was hoping someone would relate the $100 billion paid in unemployment to the rising stock markets...

 

[MontyPython]

When I was asking to make sense of all of this, I was hoping someone would relate the $100 billion paid to in unemployment to the rising stock markets...

No clue. It's all like a giant Ponzi scheme. IMO, the markets are priced completely out of sync with the realities of Main St. Between FOMO, hype about the Feds willingness to basically do anything to prop up the economy, and the new-wave of former-gamblers - now clueless daytraders further pumping up stocks without any regard to technicals - I think the markets are simply defying gravity... for now.

I'm at a loss as to how this all plays out. Should the Feds cut the $600/mo when it ends July 31st? Should they continue it? Or should they provide $ incentives to go back to work? How much of our kids and grandkids' money are we going to throw at the CV19 beast? We're already at what... $3+ TRILLION.

My guess is we have a vaccine by mid-2021. Until then, maybe we get some therapies to reduce deaths somewhat. Between now and then, I think the markets tank when the 2nd virus wave hits this Fall, and reality sets in that the markets pricing in a "V-recovery" was simply delusional.

 

[TheColdVolTruth]

When I was asking to make sense of all of this, I was hoping someone would relate the $100 billion paid to in unemployment to the rising stock markets...

I may have posted this a few weeks ago, but I snapped this photo in early June while watching CNBC. I think the correlation speaks for itself, and I think this is a much more impactful reason to the snap back in equities than the $100B in unemployment.

 

[mr.checkerboards]

No clue. It's all like a giant Ponzi scheme. IMO, the markets are priced completely out of sync with the realities of Main St. Between FOMO, hype about the Feds willingness to basically do anything to prop up the economy, and the new-wave of former-gamblers - now clueless daytraders further pumping up stocks without any regard to technicals - I think the markets are simply defying gravity... for now.

I'm at a loss as to how this all plays out. Should the Feds cut the $600/mo when it ends July 31st? Should they continue it? Or should they provide $ incentives to go back to work? How much of our kids and grandkids' money are we going to throw at the CV19 beast? We're already at what... $3+ TRILLION.

My guess is we have a vaccine by mid-2021. Until then, maybe we get some therapies to reduce deaths somewhat. Between now and then, I think the markets tank when the 2nd virus wave hits this Fall, and reality sets in that the markets pricing in a "V-recovery" was simply delusional.

For once I agree with on something. The markets aren't dictating whats going on at all, and I think a lot of it has to do with the billons the feds pumped into the economy to try and keep it from tanking. If there is a second wave I think we see a major collapse unless the feds do it again, but once again I will ask the same question as I did the first time. Where do they get the money?
As far as the 600, I think it needs to be cut down to a point where its more in line with a regular paycheck and not almost double for some. However, I dont think it should be completely taken away. There are plenty of people who are still at home because they are waiting for a callback date, or waiting to see if they still have a job when the federal money gets taken from their companies. It also cant really be expected of someone to go find a job, with most companies operating at half capacities or less they dont even have all of their regular staff working let alone enough business to hire people.
How much money are we going to throw at this is a good question, but unless things open back up fully rather quickly its going to need to be more to avoid another Great Depression or worse.

 

[volfanhill]

Simple. The Federal Government is paying people not to work.

If you could make more in unemployment benefits than you could working, would you go back to work?

The $600 payments need to end, or be greatly reduced. We are out of alignment, and it’s an easy arbitrage play for millions.

I am struggling in every single one of my locations to bring furloughed people back and applications are down to a few a week. It’s really cramping growth.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

If there is a second wave I think we see a major collapse unless the feds do it again, but once again I will ask the same question as I did the first time. Where do they get the money?

Why do you ask these silly azz questions? You're a big boy. You know where it comes from. They just pulled it out of thin air.

 

[NeverWe'llSever]

Why do you ask these silly azz questions? You're a big boy. You know where it comes from. They just pulled it out of thin air.

Quantitative Easing aka counterfeiting.

 

[DancingOutlaw]

I am struggling in every single one of my locations to bring furloughed people back and applications are down to a few a week. It’s really cramping growth.

We have active construction in our neighborhood and they are having a hard time putting crews together since you can make almost $1k a week sitting on your ass. Many people at my wife’s work are begging to be laid off since it would be a pay raise.

 

[85SugarVol]

No clue. It's all like a giant Ponzi scheme. IMO, the markets are priced completely out of sync with the realities of Main St. Between FOMO, hype about the Feds willingness to basically do anything to prop up the economy, and the new-wave of former-gamblers - now clueless daytraders further pumping up stocks without any regard to technicals - I think the markets are simply defying gravity... for now.

I'm at a loss as to how this all plays out. Should the Feds cut the $600/mo when it ends July 31st? Should they continue it? Or should they provide $ incentives to go back to work? How much of our kids and grandkids' money are we going to throw at the CV19 beast? We're already at what... $3+ TRILLION.

My guess is we have a vaccine by mid-2021. Until then, maybe we get some therapies to reduce deaths somewhat. Between now and then, I think the markets tank when the 2nd virus wave hits this Fall, and reality sets in that the markets pricing in a "V-recovery" was simply delusional.

It’s already V’covered

And as long as we don’t go out of our way to kill the economy again, all will be well.

 

[MontyPython]

It’s already V’covered

And as long as we don’t go out of our way to kill the economy again, all will be well.

Heh. The markets making a "V" does not the economy make. The cart is pulling the proverbial horse.

All is far from well. Been out to see what's going on with sit-down restaurants? If open, they're at 50% capacity and basically no old people, period. Even with carry out, they're not making money. NOT A PENNY. They're only open because of the SBA PPP. I could say the same about alot of other sectors (theaters, bars, sports, pretty much any thing where there are normally crowds of people).

Basically, a best case synopsis of the current economic situation: Remove all senior citizens (55 and over) from any normal consumer (public) activity, and calculate what that does to our GDP. Minimum, I mean absolute minimum, subtract 10% from our annual GDP.

Plus, companies have LOADED UP on debt in preparation for a long-haul wait until things return to an actual 'normal'. This will harm profitability obviously.

Stocks are way, way out of sync with Main St. Driven by FOMO, newly-minted ignorant, homebound daytraders, and pumped up by this false notion that throwing money at CV19 by the Fed will cure-all, people are simply in for a rude awakening when this house of cards comes tumbling down.

We just came out of the longest economic expansion in our nation's history. Newton's Theory will come into play here. I'm banking on it.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Heh. The markets making a "V" does not the economy make.

All is far from well. Been out to see what's going on with sit-down restaurants? If open, they're at 50% capacity and basically no old people, period. Even with carry out, they're not making money. NOT A PENNY. They're only open because of the SBA PPP. I could say the same about alot of other sectors (theaters, bars, sports, pretty much any thing where there are normally crowds of people).

Basically, a best case synopsis of the current economic situation: Remove all senior citizens (55 and over) from any normal consumer (public) activity, and calculate what that does to our GDP. Minimum, I mean absolute minimum, subtract 10% from our annual GDP.

Plus, companies have LOADED UP on debt in preparation for a long-haul wait until things return to an actual 'normal'. This will harm profitability obviously.

Stocks are way, way out of sync with Main St. Driven by FOMO, newly-minted ignorant, homebound daytraders, and pumped up by this false notion that throwing money at CV19 by the Fed will cure-all, people are simply in for a rude awakening when this house of cards comes tumbling down.

We just came out of the longest economic expansion in our nation's history. Newton's Theory will come into play here. I'm banking on it.

Everything you said here is truth.

 

[85SugarVol]

Heh. The markets making a "V" does not the economy make. The cart is pulling the proverbial horse.

All is far from well. Been out to see what's going on with sit-down restaurants? If open, they're at 50% capacity and basically no old people, period. Even with carry out, they're not making money. NOT A PENNY. They're only open because of the SBA PPP. I could say the same about alot of other sectors (theaters, bars, sports, pretty much any thing where there are normally crowds of people).

Basically, a best case synopsis of the current economic situation: Remove all senior citizens (55 and over) from any normal consumer (public) activity, and calculate what that does to our GDP. Minimum, I mean absolute minimum, subtract 10% from our annual GDP.

Plus, companies have LOADED UP on debt in preparation for a long-haul wait until things return to an actual 'normal'. This will harm profitability obviously.

Stocks are way, way out of sync with Main St. Driven by FOMO, newly-minted ignorant, homebound daytraders, and pumped up by this false notion that throwing money at CV19 by the Fed will cure-all, people are simply in for a rude awakening when this house of cards comes tumbling down.

We just came out of the longest economic expansion in our nation's history. Newton's Theory will come into play here. I'm banking on it.

Yea, we get it. You’re all doom and gloom, you’re banking on it.

And you’re conflating Wall St with Main St. They do not march in step.

 

[MontyPython]

Yea, we get it. You’re all doom and gloom, you’re banking on it.

And you’re conflating Wall St with Main St. They do not march in step.

I am doom and gloom. Wasn't always this way.

You are correct, in part. The two aren't marching in step... but historically, this is fleeting. Hence my concerns that the markets are gonna tank.

Ask yourself this when it comes to the economy and the stock market: Which is the horse and which is the cart?

This illustrates where we are:



If you're long stocks, you've got a painful year coming up.

 

[Ernest T. Vol]

I am doom and gloom. Wasn't always this way.

Ask yourself this when it comes to the economy and the stock market: Which is the horse and which is the cart?

The market trades ahead of the economic cycle. What do you think will happen in 2021? Investors are answering that question today.

 

[MontyPython]

The market trades ahead of the economic cycle. What do you think will happen in 2021? Investors are answering that question today.

Also true. If you think we're out of the woods on CV19, then being long here makes sense. Alternatively, if you're wrong...

Just one thing... How long does it normally take to develop a vaccine?

Curious. Where is the AIDS vaccine? Been what... 40 years? Herpes... still a thing. Common cold.

If you believe the politicians that we'll have a "cure" by the end of the year, you and your money shall part ways.

# # #

New FDA Guidance May Not Allow Covid-19 Vaccine This Year, Analyst Says
Published: July 1, 2020 at 9:46 a.m. ET

The Food and Drug Administration’s new guidance document for developers of Covid-19 vaccines doesn’t spell out a timeline. SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges says the guidelines point firmly toward no vaccine being made available until next year.

When will a Covid-19 vaccine be ready? It’s the most important question in the fight against the pandemic, and while companies have offered a range of answers, America’s drug regulator has been mostly silent until now.

That changed Monday, when the Food and Drug Administration issued a 24-page guidance document for Covid-19 vaccine developers. The document doesn’t spell out a timeline, but one analyst says that its guidelines point firmly toward no vaccine being made available until next year.

“The FDA seems to suggest that thousands of subjects of safety, and at least six months duration of observation, and clinical efficacy, are all required before any vaccine approval,” wrote SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges in a note out Wednesday. “This is not consistent with the many developers who have suggested that they could be on the market by the end of this year.”

 

[Ernest T. Vol]

Also true. If you think we're out of the woods on CV19, then being long here makes sense. Alternatively, if you're wrong...

Just one thing... How long does it normally take to develop a vaccine?

Sometimes there are shocks not priced in and the market got one from this virus after an all time high of 3,394 on 2/19/20. In only 23 trading days, the S&P was down 35% bottoming on 3/23/20. From that bottom it has climbed up 43% to today's close of 3,130. But keep in mind where we are. The market is still down 8% from all time highs. Any other time, with a pullback of 8%, you and the other lefties would be yelling about Trump and slobbering over getting the words recession spun into every news broadcast.

 

[MontyPython]

Sometimes there are shocks not priced in and the market got one from this virus after an all time high of 3,394 on 2/19/20. In only 23 trading days, the S&P was down 35% bottoming on 3/23/20. From that bottom it has climbed up 43% to today's close of 3,130. But keep in mind where we are. The market is still down 8% from all time highs. Any other time, with a pullback of 8%, you and the other lefties would be yelling about Trump and slobbering over getting the words recession spun into every news broadcast.

Well, here's another problem... the market was overvalued to start with.

At the start of 2020, we were already in a bubble rivaling that of 2000.

Dude... just so I'm clear here, I'm in the market to make money. Normally I'm long. But now... no way.

Do yourself a favor, if you're substantially long, brush up on the Buffett Indicator (his personal favorite single indicator btw). It's one of many showing we're heading into rough seas.



This ain't my first rodeo. Been an active investor / occasional trader since the 80s. I got burned being long in 2000 and lost my ass. But then, I was short on the market in late 2008 / early 2009. Rode my puts on Chinese ETFs and American bank stocks to the bank.

I could be 100% wrong now, I admit it. But, my money is where my mouth is.

Holding / accumulating puts in RCL, CNK, RUTH, QQQ.

 

[85SugarVol]

I am doom and gloom. Wasn't always this way.

You are correct, in part. The two aren't marching in step... but historically, this is fleeting. Hence my concerns that the markets are gonna tank.

Ask yourself this when it comes to the economy and the stock market: Which is the horse and which is the cart?

This illustrates where we are:

View attachment 290113

If you're long stocks, you've got a painful year coming up.

Eh, the markets have already priced in the lack of profits that are coming. It’s not a secret. Jmo.