stock market was up today...

#7,651
#7,651
DancingOutlaw said:
Think how dumb that logic is, and then realize you’re doing it now. You and rabid Obama haters are on the same mental level.
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How is it dumb logic? Obama was blamed for a recession that began before he even moved into the White House. The current looming economic woes are being touted as a precursor to a recession but now that's somewhere between the 'media's fault' and 'normal'. WTF?
 
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#7,652
#7,652
Septic said:
How is it dumb logic? Obama was blamed for a recession that began before he even moved into the White House. The current looming economic woes are being touted as a precursor to a recession but now that's somewhere between the 'media's fault' and 'normal'. WTF?
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I don't think he was blamed for a recession, just a painfully slow recovery.
 
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#7,653
#7,653
Septic said:
Poor leadership, terrible job of uniting his caucus.

McCain hated the ACA, what he hated more was that the caucus tried to shoehorn a skinny into a strait vote without committee consideration. That's on the leadership...
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Ryan and McConnell were not terribly inclined to work with Trump.
 
#7,657
#7,657
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Looks like they are appreciating the economy.
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I think what is going to happen in the next election is people like me that vote Republican but couldn't vote for Trump in 2016, are going to come out in force in support of him. Sorry socialist liberals, your message doesn't click with the majority of the country.
 
#7,658
#7,658
VolStrom said:
I think what is going to happen in the next election is people like me that vote Republican but couldn't vote for Trump in 2016, are going to come out in force in support of him. Sorry socialist liberals, your message doesn't click with the majority of the country.
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If you vote trump, that's your choice. But just remember the Democrats didn't make that choice for you.
 
#7,661
#7,661
Velo Vol said:
This program on the financial crisis is good.

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One of the more interesting parts was the White House summit they had when TARP was proposed. This is when McCain suspended his campaign to solve the financial crisis. The long and short of it is he didn't have an alternative plan. Obama was willing to go along with the Bush administration plan as long as the McCain campaign didn't make a populist attacks over it.

2008 was quite a year.
 
#7,662
#7,662
The situation we are in right now is concerning.

1) Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, and UK are in, or are moving into recessions.

2) The U.S. is cutting interest rates and playing tariff games while running trillion dollar deficits, so two classic ways government can respond to recession are diminished (rates) or off the table (stimulus).

I think the unwise monetary policy, and Trump's chickening out on tariffs will prop things up through the end of the year, and maybe through 2020.

But I also think the next recession is going to be harsher than it would have been otherwise, and very harsh for areas of the country not participating in the information economy. I hope I'm wrong.
 
#7,664
#7,664
Velo Vol said:
What do you think has been unwise?
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Interest rates needed to get further off the mat, and blame for this goes back to Fed associated with Obama admin too, because if the next recession is severe there is a limited amount of coal you can throw in the engine now.

The last three recessions we had higher, what I'd call normalized rates, going in. Our political system is affecting the psychology of the fiscal decision makers, and short-term outcomes for both business and the economy as a whole are now more important than long term health.

There is a lot of pressure for a September rate cut (despite historically low interest levels) at the same time the POTUS's advisors are on every TV show talking up how great the economy is performing. So something smells fishy to me.
 
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#7,665
#7,665
Rifleman said:
Interest rates needed to get further off the mat, and blame for this goes back to Fed associated with Obama admin too, because if the next recession is severe there is a limited amount of coal you can throw in the engine now.

The last three recessions we had higher, what I'd call normalized rates, going in. Our political system is affecting the psychology of the fiscal decision makers, and short-term outcomes for both business and the economy as a whole are now more important than long term health.

There is a lot of pressure for a September rate cut (despite historically low interest levels) at the same time the POTUS's advisors are on every TV show talking up how great the economy is performing. So something smells fishy to me.
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I agree. On the other hand, how far out of line with the rest of the world can/should the U.S. keep interest rates?
 
#7,666
#7,666
VolStrom said:
I think what is going to happen in the next election is people like me that vote Republican but couldn't vote for Trump in 2016, are going to come out in force in support of him. Sorry socialist liberals, your message doesn't click with the majority of the country.
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There's never been any doubt that the Trumpsters will turn out in force. But don't think that Democrats and others who oppose Trump are going to stay home. Texas and Georgia during the mids are a good example. Fear of Socialism didn't have any effect then and won't in '20.
 
#7,667
#7,667
Hunerwadel said:
There's never been any doubt that the Trumpsters will turn out in force. But don't think that Democrats and others who oppose Trump are going to stay home. Texas and Georgia during the mids are a good example. Fear of Socialism didn't have any effect then and won't in '20.
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So you think that Georgia and Texas are going to vote Democrat? God help the USA if they do.
 
#7,668
#7,668
VolStrom said:
So you think that Georgia and Texas are going to vote Democrat? God help the USA if they do.
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Once they turn those 2 states blue, you will have seen the last Republican President for many, many years, and probably forever. The country will turn into Chicago, L.A., Detroit, Baltimore, etc. ...…...…….and eventually Venezuela.
 
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#7,669
#7,669
VolStrom said:
So you think that Georgia and Texas are going to vote Democrat? God help the USA if they do.
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Not yet but they are good examples of how engaged the Democrats were during midterms. I haven't seen anything to indicate they are less engaged now.
 
#7,670
#7,670
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#7,673
#7,673
There have been 5 inversions in 40 years, the last one was over 10 years ago. Recessions followed an average of 22 months later. Recessions occur on average just over every 3 years.

Most inversions occur because ST rates rise, not when LT rates drop.

But the MSM narrative is that a financial disaster looms (so be sure to vote for the Democrats in 2020).
 
#7,674
#7,674
Thunder Good-Oil said:
There have been 5 inversions in 40 years, the last one was over 10 years ago. Recessions followed an average of 22 months later. Recessions occur on average just over every 3 years.

Most inversions occur because ST rates rise, not when LT rates drop.

But the MSM narrative is that a financial disaster looms (so be sure to vote for the Democrats in 2020).
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That's a good point but I dont think anyone says the inversion has a causal relationship to recession. Its correlated. The same mechanisms that cause inversion cause recession.

I'm paying more attention at the moment to smart money flocking to safe haven commodities and consumer spending. That's a mixed bag because obviously gold is up sharply and maintaining its gains, while on the other hand consumer spending is very strong in last reports. Maybe watch for one to break out in the other direction.
 
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