Stock Market Jeeters vs Tennessee Football fallout (Corona Crash).

#52

IndianaVol

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#52
Flu mortality rate is less than 1%. Corona virus is 3.4%. That’s documented cases as well.
Should have clarified my data set...I used the numbers provided by OP and based it only on hospitalized versus deaths...I made the assumption the 200 cases in the US are all hospital cases.

Also, I now think that the flu numbers are worldwide and not just the US.

Doing the research, as I should have, I now find the mortality rates to be more in line with what you post.

Thanks for the good catch and keeping me honest brother 👊
 
#53

amaralfan1

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#53
Frankly, the impact to the stock market has two components. One is supply chain disruption. Temporary. Predictable. REAL. The other is the media narrative being pushed by those with a certain political agenda that depends on the economy not being good by November. Though not "real"... it can convince investors to stay on the sidelines.
Thankfully Tennessee is regarded as having the nation's premier supply chain management program!
 
#54

DaddyChad

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#54
Should have clarified my data set...I used the numbers provided by OP and based it only on hospitalized versus deaths...I made the assumption the 200 cases in the US are all hospital cases.

Also, I now think that the flu numbers are worldwide and not just the US.

Doing the research, as I should have, I now find the mortality rates to be more in line with what you post.

Thanks for the good catch and keeping me honest brother 👊
I mean honestly we don’t know which way this will go with the Covid-19. I suspect mortality rates will drop dramatically when we get testing in place. That said this is pretty new there’s just not a lot known still; the Spanish flu was even more deadly once it mutated. I doubt very seriously we deal with anything like that but I think caution is warranted more so than fear.
 
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#55

CR-vol

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#55
If it spreads like Spanish flu did it'll last for 2 or 3 years and kill tens of millions. That's way worse than the ordinary flu. And the numbers out there now are totally unreliable. You cant trust any numbers from China and it's not really different with our own info here.
 
#56

VolNExile

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#56
When you’re wading your way through the stats, the rate to pay attention to (IMO) is the case fatality rate, CFR. The CFR is the number of people who died of a specified disease divided by the number of people diagnosed with this disease. One reason that early numbers from any epidemic are all over the map is because there isn’t a good grasp of how many people are infected. As the testing improves and the number of infected (the denominator) increases, the CFR (the rate) goes down.

To put it in layman’s language, if 5 people die and only 10 (including the dead) have been diagnosed as infected, the the CFR is 50%, omg. But if the same 5 people die, and 1,000 have been diagnosed as having been infected, the CFR is 0.5%. Not wonderful, but a helluva lot better than 50%.

If you don’t test A LOT of people, you don’t know how many are sick and miserable at home, but slowly getting better. So we won’t be able to come up with believable and usable CFRs. The US is uniquely challenged in this area due to our health care system, which is profit-driven rather than public health-driven. When people are potentially going to be billed $3,000+ to be tested, and then told that they must stay home and not work for at least 14 days, what do you think they will do? We will never know how many COVID-19+ people there are in our neighborhoods and workplaces.

By contrast, the mortality rate is the number of people who died divided by the number of people in the entire population at risk: infected + suspected + not infected. In other words, the number of people who died in Knoxville versus the population of Knoxville; the number of people who died in Tennessee versus the population of Tennessee; same for US; same for the planet. This number will be lower than CFR; often much lower.

A big problem is that the media (looking at you CNN, Fox, MSN, the networks; they’re all awful) doesn’t grasp this, so they talk about the “death rate”, and everyone goes bat-sh!t crazy.

When you throw out all the hysteria, here’s what we know: this current version of coronavirus (there are many, including the viruses that cause the common cold) is particularly scary because (1) it’s easily transmitted and (2) it is more lethal than flu. Measles is easily transmitted, but it’s less lethal. Ebola is more lethal, but it’s not nearly as easily transmitted. Plus we haven’t got any particular immunity yet, because it’s brand new.

Moral of the story, I guess: dial back your social engagements; use your knuckles to punch elevator buttons, open doors with your sleeves, sneeze and cough into the crook of your elbows, don’t go to work when you’re feeling sick, pay attention to CDC advisories, and WASH YOUR FREAKIN’ HANDS!
 
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#57

TheManFromTenn

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#57
Kneejerk, the sky if falling type of thread start. We have a leader on top of things, just pray and everything will be fine. 2009 over 1000 died with the swine flu. This is not as deadly, in fact it impacts the elderly and people that already have a lot of health problems more than anyone else. We have leaders and a country that is the best equipped. We have been ahead of this overall and folks should quit trying to play politics with this. Folks should use common sense, wash your hands maybe put off the over seas trip or cruise for now. But there is no reason to go all crazy thinking and assuming the worst when all the people at the top are saying be careful but carry on. And as far as the market, please like the post in front mine the stock market has survived a hell of a lot worse than this. GBO!
While I agree panic will only make it worse over 3500 people worldwide so far have died and it continues to spread rapidly. Be careful, use common sense and don’t travel on long trips if you can avoid it. And oh, btw, we do not have a leader on top of things. Anyone who thinks he is perfect and everything he does is perfect is clearly out of touch. His lies and misinformation makes matters worse and proves he is not a leader! And Go Big Orange!
 
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#58

chrismc1000

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#58
Almost every year we have some virus or sickness or area 51 etc... Big even happening all over the globe. Sun will rise tomorrow let this panic pass over and all will be good
 
#60

TheManFromTenn

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#60
Frankly, the impact to the stock market has two components. One is supply chain disruption. Temporary. Predictable. REAL. The other is the media narrative being pushed by those with a certain political agenda that depends on the economy not being good by November. Though not "real"... it can convince investors to stay on the sidelines.
Also very impactful is tumbling oil prices... stay tuned!
 
#62

LAVol1

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#62
Most investors in the Market realize you have to know when to buy and when to sell. You take the chance to make a lot of money or lose a lot on money. .
Not true at all. Two of the most successful investors of all time rarely sell anything. Buffett has never tried to time the market.
 
#63

LAVol1

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#63
Stocks are a huge bubble long overdue for a pop. Real estate seems like it's about the same, at least in my area.
Stocks have been overdue for a correction but there is not a stock bubble. We'll likely see a V-shaped recovery when the Coronavirus fears subside. That could happen in weeks or months, probably not days, but who knows?
 
#64

1orangews6

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#64
When you’re wading your way through the stats, the rate to pay attention to (IMO) is the case fatality rate, CFR. The CFR is the number of people who died of a specified disease divided by the number of people diagnosed with this disease. One reason that early numbers from any epidemic are all over the map is because there isn’t a good grasp of how many people are infected. As the testing improves and the number of infected (the denominator) increases, the CFR (the rate) goes down.

To put it in layman’s language, if 5 people die and only 10 (including the dead) have been diagnosed as infected, the the CFR is 50%, omg. But if the same 5 people die, and 1,000 have been diagnosed as having been infected, the CFR is 0.5%. Not wonderful, but a helluva lot better than 50%.

If you don’t test A LOT of people, you don’t know how many are sick and miserable at home, but slowly getting better. So we won’t be able to come up with believable and usable CFRs. The US is uniquely challenged in this area due to our health care system, which is profit-driven rather than public health-driven. When people are potentially going to be billed $3,000+ to be tested, and then told that they must stay home and not work for at least 14 days, what do you think they will do? We will never know how many COVID-19+ people there are in our neighborhoods and workplaces.

By contrast, the mortality rate is the number of people who died divided by the number of people in the entire population at risk: infected + suspected + not infected. In other words, the number of people who died in Knoxville versus the population of Knoxville; the number of people who died in Tennessee versus the population of Tennessee; same for US; same for the planet. This number will be lower than CFR; often much lower.

A big problem is that the media (looking at you CNN, Fox, MSN, the networks; they’re all awful) doesn’t grasp this, so they talk about the “death rate”, and everyone goes bat-sh!t crazy.

When you throw out all the hysteria, here’s what we know: this current version of coronavirus (there are many, including the viruses that cause the common cold) is particularly scary because (1) it’s easily transmitted and (2) it is more lethal than flu. Measles is easily transmitted, but it’s less lethal. Ebola is more lethal, but it’s not nearly as easily transmitted. Plus we haven’t got any particular immunity yet, because it’s brand new.

Moral of the story, I guess: dial back your social engagements; use your knuckles to punch elevator buttons, open doors with your sleeves, sneeze and cough into the crook of your elbows, don’t go to work when you’re feeling sick, pay attention to CDC advisories, and WASH YOUR FREAKIN’ HANDS!
So basically people should use common freakin sense and crap that everyone should be taught to do? I don't shake people's hand much anymore especially at places like the gym. They get the fist bump.
 
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#65

1orangews6

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#65
While I agree panic will only make it worse over 3500 people worldwide so far have died and it continues to spread rapidly. Be careful, use common sense and don’t travel on long trips if you can avoid it. And oh, btw, we do not have a leader on top of things. Anyone who thinks he is perfect and everything he does is perfect is clearly out of touch. His lies and misinformation makes matters worse and proves he is not a leader! And Go Big Orange!
The person you quoted said "leaders" not the singular form but don't let that stop you.
 
#66

CR-vol

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#66
Stocks have been overdue for a correction but there is not a stock bubble. We'll likely see a V-shaped recovery when the Coronavirus fears subside. That could happen in weeks or months, probably not days, but who knows?
Your guess is as good as mine. West coast ports are basically at a standstill right now and been that way for weeks. Transport companies out there are laying off people in droves. That's not normal, far from it. Regardless if this turns out as bad as the Spanish flu or not it's wreaking havoc on the economy. That's not election cycle fake news that's reality. Everything isn't just rosy and fine when a country as big as China pretty much shuts down for weeks on end. That never happened with SARS or any of those other "epidemics" of the recent past.
 
#69

sjt18

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#69
Also very impactful is tumbling oil prices... stay tuned!
There's been an oversupply to the oil market for a while now. That could be the bigger election issue. Trump could be faced with a choice of putting tariffs on OPEC oil or letting US oil workers take the brunt of this market drop.
 
#70
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#70
You don't have to be a genius! The middle man that doesn't have enough capitol to keep reinvesting is gonna , and already, has lost his butt. Just use some common sense, there's no end , there's no cut off, where does the coronavirus get roped in? That's the deal. I could see it a mile away, that's why I posted this.
 
#72

TheManFromTenn

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#72
The person you quoted said "leaders" not the singular form but don't let that stop you.
And you are wrong btw... To quote he said ‘We have a leader on top of things, just pray and every will be fine‘ in the second sentence. Later he said ‘We have leaders and a country that is best equipped’. I was referring to the second sentence.
 
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#73

Cormock Mac

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#73
While I agree panic will only make it worse over 3500 people worldwide so far have died and it continues to spread rapidly. Be careful, use common sense and don’t travel on long trips if you can avoid it. And oh, btw, we do not have a leader on top of things. Anyone who thinks he is perfect and everything he does is perfect is clearly out of touch. His lies and misinformation makes matters worse and proves he is not a leader! And Go Big Orange!
Our "on top of things" leader has been incredibly slow to respond. He pooh poohed the danger, said that it would all be over by warm weather, etc etc. When he finally responded a day or two ago, he placed blame everywhere except where it belongs
 

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