Stats Don't Lie & It's Not Pretty for Pruitt

[BigOrangeTrain]

If he goes 5-7, or 6-6 next year, would that be turning it around in your opinion?

Nope. 7-5 would be barely. I would consider 8-4 turning it around.

 

[BeardedVol]

I would consider 8-4 an improvement. That’s a heck of a feat but you never know. In the end I think that’s what we have to hope for.

8-4, with a 4-4 SEC record? You'd consider going .500 in conference play in year 4 as acceptable?

At what point should we expect Pruitt to actually start winning significant games? Year 7?

 

[onevol74]

Tha

Nope. 7-5 would be barely. I would consider 8-4 turning it around.

t would put him at 0-12 against UGA, Florida, and Bama.

 

[chattavol420]

Wow. Good work op. Really puts into perspective how bad we truely are. Why is one man in charge of this decision? How does that make sense? If you compare college football teams o publicly traded companies...they are completely different in the way they make major decisions. A publicly traded company always has a board of directors that vote in big decisions (such as ceo as it compares to a coach).

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

8-4, with a 4-4 SEC record? You'd consider going .500 in conference play in year 4 as acceptable?

At what point should we expect Pruitt to actually start winning significant games? Year 7?

So what’s the thinking then? Winning 8 is not an improvement? Acceptable? No. Reality? Yes. Fans like you and some others need to get your head out of la la land. We aren’t beating Saban. It’s not happening. They are on a whole other level. I mean come on. The only teams that have beten him are teams that were INSANELY loaded or teams that caught him in a rare funk.

So if our next HC is still not beating UF and UGA in year 3, should we just start up the coaching search yet again?

 

[OrangeShadeOfDoom]

Good write up and research, but there is no need for the name calling toward the coach..

My god, the horror!!!

 

[Tnphil]

Hmmm so would you have been more satisfied if Pruitt had said, “ well we really suck. I mean our team is one of the worst in the country and we aren’t even close to competing with anyone.” I guess that would have been acceptable?

Sometimes it's better to just not say anything when people know better...Anyone with 1 football brain cell knows we haven't closed the gap on the top dogs....His comment was Butch like.

 

[1972 Grad]

My god, the horror!!!

If you feel like calling the coaches or players names, you go right ahead. It could very easily make you feel better, and make the team play better.

 

[Boogievol]

I’ve heard from a good source that the Boogie
Man is after him, what do you think?

Can confirm

 

[VolRage]

I have seen others trying to use statistical analysis to try to justify that we aren't that far off in being a good team. Maybe they are trying to give themselves hope that a Coach Gomer led squad will be able to get the job done. While I agree that we may not be light years off (right now, this minute) - if Gomer is retained - light years off will come IMO after this next offseason when it will completely derail.

Here's what I done for statistical comparisons - I looked at Points Per Game in 2020 and looked at everyone in the conference's largest margin's of victory, defeat, who those margins came against, wins or losses by 10+ points, wins and losses by 21+ points, and looked at the Rating System Rankings for the past 3 seasons (2020, 2019, 2018).

In the difference between Points Per Game and Points Allowed Per Game Tennessee was at a -8.6. This was only better than Arkansas (-9.2), South Carolina (-12.5), and Vandy (-22.5). It should be noted that both South Carolina and Vandy fired their coaches and Arkansas had a first year coach at the helm - who beat Tennessee.

PPG Difference 2020

1. Alabama +29.2
2. Georgia +12.3
3. A&M +10.6
4. Florida +9
5. Ole Miss +0.9 - Kiffin's first year at Ole Miss
6. Auburn +0.4 - fired Malzhan
7. LSU -2.9
8. Kentucky -4.7
9. Missouri -5.6 - Drink's first year at Missouri
10. Miss St. -6.7 - Leach's first year at MSU
11. Tennessee -8.6
12. Arkansas -9.2 - Pittman's first year at Arkansas
13. South Carolina -12.5 - fired Muschamp
14. Vandy -22.5 - fired Mason

For Largest Margin of Victory Tennessee bested Vandy by 25 points. There were only two schools who were below 25 for their largest MOV (Mississipi State at 19 and Arkansas at 12). It should be noted also that Vandy had 9 losses and 4 other teams also had their largest Margin of Victory over them - Ole Miss (33), LSU (34), South Carolina (34), and Missouri (41). Every other school that had their largest MOV vs Vandy beat them worse than Tennessee did. Also, every team that we beat period also showed up on someone else's largest Margin of Victory category. Mississippi State and Georgia both had their largest MOV's over Missouri and A&M had their largest over South Carolina.

In overall Losses by 10+ points Tennessee had 7, the highest in the SEC. Every game they lost, they lost by 10+ points. Even Vandy only managed to have that happen to them 6 times. For losses by 21+ points Tennessee had 4 of them - typing South Carolina who also had 4. Vanderbilt had 6.

Losses by 10+ points

1. Tennessee 7
2. Vandy 6 - fired Mason
2. South Carolina 6 - fired Muschamp
4. Missouri 5
4. Kentucky 5
6. Arkansas 4
6. Miss St 4
6. LSU 4
6. Auburn 4
10. Ole Miss 3
11. Georgia 2
12. Florida 1
12. A&M 1
14. Bama 0

That statistic above should be the one that makes you nervous if you are a Tennessee fan. We had SEVEN 10+ point losses in 2020, most in the SEC. Gomer don't just lose, he loses big - 4 of those 7 were 21+ point drubbings.

Losses by 21+ points

1. Vandy 6
2. Tennessee 4
2. South Carolina 4
4. Missouri 3
4. Arkansas 3
6. Kentucky 2
6. Miss. St 2
6. LSU 2
6. Auburn 2
10. Florida 1
10. A&M 1
12. Ole Miss 0
12. Georgia 0
12. Bama 0

When you look at overall team ratings which compiles all of the stats and spits teams out compared to every other NCAA Division 1 school in 2020 Tennessee ranked 89th out of 127 schools. The only two schools who rated worse in the SEC were South Carolina at 103 and Vandy at 121. Our other win on the year - Missouri - ranked 88th - one spot above Tennessee in the final ranks. So we beat teams who ranked 88, 103, and 121. We beat no teams in the top 85 statistically. And again it should be noted that both South Carolina and Vanderbilt fired their head coaches.

I looked at the difference between 2020 and 2019 final Rating Rankings and Tennessee fell 48 spots from 41st in 2019. That would be the second biggest drop in 2020 in the SEC with only LSU falling further - and it's because they fell from #1 to #64.

2020 vs 2019 differences ranked in the SEC

1. Arkansas +53 - with new coach
2. Ole Miss +23 - with new coach
3. Alabama & Texas A&M +2 each
5. Vandy & Miss. State -5 each
7. Georgia & Florida -7 each
9. Kentucky -32
10. Auburn -33
11. Missouri -38
12. South Carolina -45
13. Tennessee -48
14. LSU -63

As you can see there most of the SEC actually fell back from 2019 - many of them significant drop offs. Only two teams significantly improved and they were Arkansas and Ole Miss - both with new head coaches.

Everyone can have their own theories and arguments but I have always tried to back up my "feelings" with statistics also. I used that during Butch's last two years here to make my case on why I knew he wasn't the man for the job. If you can look at any of these statistics and trends and feel good about Gomer Cornbread being the head coach at UT then more power to you. I see things for what they are - and they ARE a dumpster fire for UT at the moment. And my feeling is that is 100% because we have a guy who has absolutely no business being a head football coach at the D1 level - at any school.

For God's sake our 3 wins this year were over teams who ranked 88, 103, and 121. If that's the standard for UT football then so be it but it shouldn't be and those in charge of this whole fiasco should be embarrassed beyond belief. Bring this guy back next year and see what happens - it won't be pretty. I still maintain the hope that Tennessee is still trying to figure out exactly how low they can get the buyout down to and he's going to be gone either way. And if I'm wrong about that then let's examine these statistics again next year with fresh new data. I have a hunch the results won't be much prettier than they are right now.

Can you email this to Pruitt, Fulmer, and the power boosters? I’m not sure Pruitt knows he and his staff sucks. I’m confident that Fulmer doesn’t and I’m wondering if our boosters give a damn.

 

[Orangeslice13]

No worries. We've been told that Pruitt is going to buck the trend, because reasons, and completely turn things around by year 4, or year 5 at the latest, and we just have to be patient because he's still learning how to be a head coach, the team is young, and we had to deal with covid and subsequent restrictions.

I think that covers the usual responses to any statistics showing the downward trend under Pruitt.

Literally nobody on here is saying that or believes that.
People like me who disagree with the decision to keep him but are trying to understand the thought process behind why Tennessee hasn’t fired him.
It’s a real simple answer. Tennessee at the administration level doesn’t care about winning championships. It’s all about playing it save and maintaining a financial situation. They would like too win if they luck into it but it’s not even close to a priority.
In 2 more years when he’s finally fired we will hire another coach that’s a project.

 

[BeardedVol]

Literally nobody on here is saying that or believes that.
People like me who disagree with the decision to keep him but are trying to understand the thought process behind why Tennessee hasn’t fired him.
It’s a real simple answer. Tennessee at the administration level doesn’t care about winning championships. It’s all about playing it save and maintaining a financial situation. They would like too win if they luck into it but it’s not even close to a priority.
In 2 more years when he’s finally fired we will hire another coach that’s a project.

There are plenty of people here posting about him "deserving a 4th year <insert reason>", and how he "might turn it around".

 

[Orangeslice13]

There are plenty of people here posting about him "deserving a 4th year <insert reason>", and how he "might turn it around".

 

[BeardedVol]

View attachment 335962

If you really need me to quote them for you I can, but you could always just wait for JP's daily 'just keep Pruitt' dissertation if you need proof.

 

[utisme]

Also cant get TN kids to come to TN.

 

[SmokeyDog1973]

Yep we suck

 

[CINCYVOL]

I have seen others trying to use statistical analysis to try to justify that we aren't that far off in being a good team. Maybe they are trying to give themselves hope that a Coach Gomer led squad will be able to get the job done. While I agree that we may not be light years off (right now, this minute) - if Gomer is retained - light years off will come IMO after this next offseason when it will completely derail.

Here's what I done for statistical comparisons - I looked at Points Per Game in 2020 and looked at everyone in the conference's largest margin's of victory, defeat, who those margins came against, wins or losses by 10+ points, wins and losses by 21+ points, and looked at the Rating System Rankings for the past 3 seasons (2020, 2019, 2018).

In the difference between Points Per Game and Points Allowed Per Game Tennessee was at a -8.6. This was only better than Arkansas (-9.2), South Carolina (-12.5), and Vandy (-22.5). It should be noted that both South Carolina and Vandy fired their coaches and Arkansas had a first year coach at the helm - who beat Tennessee.

PPG Difference 2020

1. Alabama +29.2
2. Georgia +12.3
3. A&M +10.6
4. Florida +9
5. Ole Miss +0.9 - Kiffin's first year at Ole Miss
6. Auburn +0.4 - fired Malzhan
7. LSU -2.9
8. Kentucky -4.7
9. Missouri -5.6 - Drink's first year at Missouri
10. Miss St. -6.7 - Leach's first year at MSU
11. Tennessee -8.6
12. Arkansas -9.2 - Pittman's first year at Arkansas
13. South Carolina -12.5 - fired Muschamp
14. Vandy -22.5 - fired Mason

For Largest Margin of Victory Tennessee bested Vandy by 25 points. There were only two schools who were below 25 for their largest MOV (Mississipi State at 19 and Arkansas at 12). It should be noted also that Vandy had 9 losses and 4 other teams also had their largest Margin of Victory over them - Ole Miss (33), LSU (34), South Carolina (34), and Missouri (41). Every other school that had their largest MOV vs Vandy beat them worse than Tennessee did. Also, every team that we beat period also showed up on someone else's largest Margin of Victory category. Mississippi State and Georgia both had their largest MOV's over Missouri and A&M had their largest over South Carolina.

In overall Losses by 10+ points Tennessee had 7, the highest in the SEC. Every game they lost, they lost by 10+ points. Even Vandy only managed to have that happen to them 6 times. For losses by 21+ points Tennessee had 4 of them - typing South Carolina who also had 4. Vanderbilt had 6.

Losses by 10+ points

1. Tennessee 7
2. Vandy 6 - fired Mason
2. South Carolina 6 - fired Muschamp
4. Missouri 5
4. Kentucky 5
6. Arkansas 4
6. Miss St 4
6. LSU 4
6. Auburn 4
10. Ole Miss 3
11. Georgia 2
12. Florida 1
12. A&M 1
14. Bama 0

That statistic above should be the one that makes you nervous if you are a Tennessee fan. We had SEVEN 10+ point losses in 2020, most in the SEC. Gomer don't just lose, he loses big - 4 of those 7 were 21+ point drubbings.

Losses by 21+ points

1. Vandy 6
2. Tennessee 4
2. South Carolina 4
4. Missouri 3
4. Arkansas 3
6. Kentucky 2
6. Miss. St 2
6. LSU 2
6. Auburn 2
10. Florida 1
10. A&M 1
12. Ole Miss 0
12. Georgia 0
12. Bama 0

When you look at overall team ratings which compiles all of the stats and spits teams out compared to every other NCAA Division 1 school in 2020 Tennessee ranked 89th out of 127 schools. The only two schools who rated worse in the SEC were South Carolina at 103 and Vandy at 121. Our other win on the year - Missouri - ranked 88th - one spot above Tennessee in the final ranks. So we beat teams who ranked 88, 103, and 121. We beat no teams in the top 85 statistically. And again it should be noted that both South Carolina and Vanderbilt fired their head coaches.

I looked at the difference between 2020 and 2019 final Rating Rankings and Tennessee fell 48 spots from 41st in 2019. That would be the second biggest drop in 2020 in the SEC with only LSU falling further - and it's because they fell from #1 to #64.

2020 vs 2019 differences ranked in the SEC

1. Arkansas +53 - with new coach
2. Ole Miss +23 - with new coach
3. Alabama & Texas A&M +2 each
5. Vandy & Miss. State -5 each
7. Georgia & Florida -7 each
9. Kentucky -32
10. Auburn -33
11. Missouri -38
12. South Carolina -45
13. Tennessee -48
14. LSU -63

As you can see there most of the SEC actually fell back from 2019 - many of them significant drop offs. Only two teams significantly improved and they were Arkansas and Ole Miss - both with new head coaches.

Everyone can have their own theories and arguments but I have always tried to back up my "feelings" with statistics also. I used that during Butch's last two years here to make my case on why I knew he wasn't the man for the job. If you can look at any of these statistics and trends and feel good about Gomer Cornbread being the head coach at UT then more power to you. I see things for what they are - and they ARE a dumpster fire for UT at the moment. And my feeling is that is 100% because we have a guy who has absolutely no business being a head football coach at the D1 level - at any school.

For God's sake our 3 wins this year were over teams who ranked 88, 103, and 121. If that's the standard for UT football then so be it but it shouldn't be and those in charge of this whole fiasco should be embarrassed beyond belief. Bring this guy back next year and see what happens - it won't be pretty. I still maintain the hope that Tennessee is still trying to figure out exactly how low they can get the buyout down to and he's going to be gone either way. And if I'm wrong about that then let's examine these statistics again next year with fresh new data. I have a hunch the results won't be much prettier than they are right now.

the only stat that matters is the scoreboard and the Vols weren’t even close in most of their games.

 

[dduncan4163]

The lack of competitiveness and preparation in every game should tell the entire story of pruitts tenure here at Tennessee.

Exactly and that's why Pruitt should be shown the door. We are getting our doors blown off without putting up much of a fight week in and week out. Worse still we don't look prepared or focused at all. We have too much talent to look this sh*tty. Pruitt is not a HC. That should be beyond obvious at this point.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

I've seen these statistical posts also and they're consistent and damning for Pruitt. Yet, I'm fairly certain, barring something that just can't be ignored, he'll be the coach next season.

What occurs to me is how "analytics" is all the rage in coaching decisions and analytics is just a fancy term for "running the odds" on any given decision. The OP and others here are just using analytics.

It's 3rd and short...... 3rd year and we're short on wins. Analytics says: the odds are not good that Pruitt will succeed. We need to go with someone else.

It's analytics, UT. It's not opinion, hatred, or fans with ridiculous expectations. It's numbers. The current "play" of retaining Pruitt is the wrong "play."

 

[Alto1]

So without Vanderbilt, we basically are Vanderbilt.

Excellent point.
Evidently we also have some fans that are like Vandy fans. They are full of excuses and want to give Fulmer’s failure more time to do more damage.
Both need riding out of town on a rail.

And Fulmer said.....,,,
Fulmer to Pruitt: Tennessee head coach is judged by how he does versus Florida, Georgia and Alabama

 

[lifeVol]

I have seen others trying to use statistical analysis to try to justify that we aren't that far off in being a good team. Maybe they are trying to give themselves hope that a Coach Gomer led squad will be able to get the job done. While I agree that we may not be light years off (right now, this minute) - if Gomer is retained - light years off will come IMO after this next offseason when it will completely derail.

Here's what I done for statistical comparisons - I looked at Points Per Game in 2020 and looked at everyone in the conference's largest margin's of victory, defeat, who those margins came against, wins or losses by 10+ points, wins and losses by 21+ points, and looked at the Rating System Rankings for the past 3 seasons (2020, 2019, 2018).

In the difference between Points Per Game and Points Allowed Per Game Tennessee was at a -8.6. This was only better than Arkansas (-9.2), South Carolina (-12.5), and Vandy (-22.5). It should be noted that both South Carolina and Vandy fired their coaches and Arkansas had a first year coach at the helm - who beat Tennessee.

PPG Difference 2020

1. Alabama +29.2
2. Georgia +12.3
3. A&M +10.6
4. Florida +9
5. Ole Miss +0.9 - Kiffin's first year at Ole Miss
6. Auburn +0.4 - fired Malzhan
7. LSU -2.9
8. Kentucky -4.7
9. Missouri -5.6 - Drink's first year at Missouri
10. Miss St. -6.7 - Leach's first year at MSU
11. Tennessee -8.6
12. Arkansas -9.2 - Pittman's first year at Arkansas
13. South Carolina -12.5 - fired Muschamp
14. Vandy -22.5 - fired Mason

For Largest Margin of Victory Tennessee bested Vandy by 25 points. There were only two schools who were below 25 for their largest MOV (Mississipi State at 19 and Arkansas at 12). It should be noted also that Vandy had 9 losses and 4 other teams also had their largest Margin of Victory over them - Ole Miss (33), LSU (34), South Carolina (34), and Missouri (41). Every other school that had their largest MOV vs Vandy beat them worse than Tennessee did. Also, every team that we beat period also showed up on someone else's largest Margin of Victory category. Mississippi State and Georgia both had their largest MOV's over Missouri and A&M had their largest over South Carolina.

In overall Losses by 10+ points Tennessee had 7, the highest in the SEC. Every game they lost, they lost by 10+ points. Even Vandy only managed to have that happen to them 6 times. For losses by 21+ points Tennessee had 4 of them - typing South Carolina who also had 4. Vanderbilt had 6.

Losses by 10+ points

1. Tennessee 7
2. Vandy 6 - fired Mason
2. South Carolina 6 - fired Muschamp
4. Missouri 5
4. Kentucky 5
6. Arkansas 4
6. Miss St 4
6. LSU 4
6. Auburn 4
10. Ole Miss 3
11. Georgia 2
12. Florida 1
12. A&M 1
14. Bama 0

That statistic above should be the one that makes you nervous if you are a Tennessee fan. We had SEVEN 10+ point losses in 2020, most in the SEC. Gomer don't just lose, he loses big - 4 of those 7 were 21+ point drubbings.

Losses by 21+ points

1. Vandy 6
2. Tennessee 4
2. South Carolina 4
4. Missouri 3
4. Arkansas 3
6. Kentucky 2
6. Miss. St 2
6. LSU 2
6. Auburn 2
10. Florida 1
10. A&M 1
12. Ole Miss 0
12. Georgia 0
12. Bama 0

When you look at overall team ratings which compiles all of the stats and spits teams out compared to every other NCAA Division 1 school in 2020 Tennessee ranked 89th out of 127 schools. The only two schools who rated worse in the SEC were South Carolina at 103 and Vandy at 121. Our other win on the year - Missouri - ranked 88th - one spot above Tennessee in the final ranks. So we beat teams who ranked 88, 103, and 121. We beat no teams in the top 85 statistically. And again it should be noted that both South Carolina and Vanderbilt fired their head coaches.

I looked at the difference between 2020 and 2019 final Rating Rankings and Tennessee fell 48 spots from 41st in 2019. That would be the second biggest drop in 2020 in the SEC with only LSU falling further - and it's because they fell from #1 to #64.

2020 vs 2019 differences ranked in the SEC

1. Arkansas +53 - with new coach
2. Ole Miss +23 - with new coach
3. Alabama & Texas A&M +2 each
5. Vandy & Miss. State -5 each
7. Georgia & Florida -7 each
9. Kentucky -32
10. Auburn -33
11. Missouri -38
12. South Carolina -45
13. Tennessee -48
14. LSU -63

As you can see there most of the SEC actually fell back from 2019 - many of them significant drop offs. Only two teams significantly improved and they were Arkansas and Ole Miss - both with new head coaches.

Everyone can have their own theories and arguments but I have always tried to back up my "feelings" with statistics also. I used that during Butch's last two years here to make my case on why I knew he wasn't the man for the job. If you can look at any of these statistics and trends and feel good about Gomer Cornbread being the head coach at UT then more power to you. I see things for what they are - and they ARE a dumpster fire for UT at the moment. And my feeling is that is 100% because we have a guy who has absolutely no business being a head football coach at the D1 level - at any school.

For God's sake our 3 wins this year were over teams who ranked 88, 103, and 121. If that's the standard for UT football then so be it but it shouldn't be and those in charge of this whole fiasco should be embarrassed beyond belief. Bring this guy back next year and see what happens - it won't be pretty. I still maintain the hope that Tennessee is still trying to figure out exactly how low they can get the buyout down to and he's going to be gone either way. And if I'm wrong about that then let's examine these statistics again next year with fresh new data. I have a hunch the results won't be much prettier than they are right now.

Thanks, a lot of work in these stats, truth hurts ... CJP ain't Saban, he ain't even Gilligan or Gomer or Barney

 

[lifeVol]

Nope. 7-5 would be barely. I would consider 8-4 turning it around.

Nothing short of a 9 win season would make me happy with CJP but what do I know, I'm just a fan

 

[VFL-82-JP]

If you really need me to quote them for you I can, but you could always just wait for JP's daily 'just keep Pruitt' dissertation if you need proof.

Heh.

 

[BeardedVol]

So what’s the thinking then? Winning 8 is not an improvement? Acceptable? No. Reality? Yes. Fans like you and some others need to get your head out of la la land. We aren’t beating Saban. It’s not happening. They are on a whole other level. I mean come on. The only teams that have beten him are teams that were INSANELY loaded or teams that caught him in a rare funk.

So if our next HC is still not beating UF and UGA in year 3, should we just start up the coaching search yet again?

Who said anything about Saban? Pruitt isn't beating more than just Saban in the SEC.

Why would we keep a coach who is 0-9 against our 3 biggest rivals, and never going to win the conference? You give him a 5-year contract to start, and there's no chance for an extension before the end of year 3 without a division title. Why are you so afraid of getting rid of a coach who is obviously underdeveloping the talent he has?

 

[cgrish]

It's pretty obvious that we aren't a team, all pulling together. The best 2 teams that we have had in somewhat recent history came together after losing the star player. The Nat'l Ch. year came after Manning was gone, and the 85 Vols Sugar Bowl team were playing as well as anybody in the country at the end of the year. That came after T.Rob went down and Daryl Dickey took over. We finished that year really strong. Those were actual teams. What we have now is a bunch of individuals that for some reason haven't come together.

And a coach who had a back up qb prepared and ready to go.