Statistical Projection of 2019 Offense

#1
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#1
Got bored this morning and got a little inspiration from a RockyTopInsider article detailing some of the changes in offensive output from schools the year prior to Chaney's arrival and during his first year there. I took some of the data they compiled and extrapolated on it further to give an outlook/projection on what the offense this year will look like, at least from a statistics perspective. Skip to the Chart below for those who don't care about the methodology or want to get to that after.

2019 UT Season Projected Offensive Numbers based on Chaney's Average % Change

Calculated the percentage change in each school's Prior Year and 1st Year's: (1) Points Per Game; (2) Yards Per Game; and (3) Average Yards Per Play. You'll be able to see each stop's statistics below. I then calculated the average % change, and then used that mean to calculate a hypothetical "average" increase that could be expected to be seen this year for the Vols. This was a purely quantitative analysis.

2019 UT Season Projected Offensive Numbers based on Chaney's Purdue and UT % Changes

Their point at the end adds a good qualitative twist to it, which suggests that the Purdue and UT seasons are a greater indicator. This is due to those two seasons being ones in which Chaney took over with an incumbent QB, unlike others where he had to implement a new, unexperienced one. These numbers were a hybrid of quantitative and qualitative analysis.

The RockyTopInsider Article link is here: How Big of an Impact Can Jim Chaney Have in 2019? | Rocky Top Insider


Conclusion

Both of these are good indicators of where UT's offense should be this year. Personally, I think it will be somewhere in between the two, with the YPG of the Purdue/UT chart more indicative (although still too high) for that statistic and the PPG and AYPP of the Overall Average chart being more indicative for that statistic.


Enjoy!
 

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#6

skelleher20

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#6
I was thinking about this last night.

I don't see us making the 2 touchdown jump he made at Purdue and Tennessee (first go around), but I do think going from 22ppg to 30ppg is a reasonable jump. I also think we go from averaging 325ypg to somewhere around 385. I think that is totally reasonable and would show good growth this year. I hope to see JG throw for at least 2600 yards and 21 TDs.
 
#11

EODVOL

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#11
Appreciate the effort but too many external variables such as talent level, defensive contributions, i.e., turnovers and offensive play calling scheme. It has already been noted that he fits his scheme to the talent he has available. Right now there is an APB out for O-Linemen. Who would have thunk it, UT lacking o-line talent, a bit of irony. Anyhow, his years at Purdue, he didn't have to play the talent level as he has had to in the SEC. Big Ten, with the exception of OSU, wasn't necessarily killing it back in those days.
 
#13
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#13
Appreciate the effort but too many external variables such as talent level, defensive contributions, i.e., turnovers and offensive play calling scheme. It has already been noted that he fits his scheme to the talent he has available. Right now there is an APB out for O-Linemen. Who would have thunk it, UT lacking o-line talent, a bit of irony. Anyhow, his years at Purdue, he didn't have to play the talent level as he has had to in the SEC. Big Ten, with the exception of OSU, wasn't necessarily killing it back in those days.
Agreed that there are many external variables, as there are in every game and season. Thus, why I stated that these are "[g]ood indicators" not concrete, set-in-stone, crystal ball numbers.
 
#16

goldvol

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#16
I don't think you can get a whole lot from percent increase points scored. For example, when at team is scoring 30 points a game, you are going to have a difficult time with someone increasing the score even by 30 percent. When a team is scoring 17 a game, a thirty percent increase is reasonable. So yeah, that's likely most of what accounts for the UT and Perdue numbers- the previous season scoring was in the teens.
 
#17
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#17
I don't think you can get a whole lot from percent increase points scored. For example, when at team is scoring 30 points a game, you are going to have a difficult time with someone increasing the score even by 30 percent. When a team is scoring 17 a game, a thirty percent increase is reasonable. So yeah, that's likely most of what accounts for the UT and Perdue numbers- the previous season scoring was in the teens.
Thank you for your input. This post was more about trends and an indication/trajectory of what could come this year. You found the single outlier in the data set. Congratulations, a truly difficult task.

However, the data inherently has the reasonableness you cite to calculated into it as it is based on actual performances and not hypotheticals, while simultaneously statistically negated through the averaging of the seasons. So, while that may make sense facially, it has no application to the chart and its projections. Also, just logically, seeing as we aren't coming off of a 30 point per game season, it's inapplicable from that perspective too.
 
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