allvoltrey
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*Written by PDLGLM, poster on govols247, not me, full credit goes to him. This was posted with his consent.
South Carolina 10-9 (5-1) #103 KP.
The #1 Vols head back out on the road this week after holding up their end of the Big 12/SEC Challenge. First up, South Carolina and the Game chickens. Tennessee has mostly owned the SEC version of Carolina (44-27 overall) and a win Tuesday would mean that the Vols have played the Gamecocks even in Columbia (15-16 heading into the game). It would also mean that these Vols have tied the program record for most wins in a row at 15.
A couple years ago Frank Martin rode Sindarius Thornwell to an improbably Final Four run but his team has mostly sucked since then. 17-16 last season and a 5-7 nonconference record to start this campaign that included a loss to one of the worst teams in the country at Wyoming, a home loss to Stony Brook and getting rolled by 20pts at home against Wofford. There are only two teams in the conference rated lower than South Carolina in the Ken Pom.
So of course they are 5-1 to start conference play, with wins at Florida and at home against Mississippi State and Auburn. They are tied for 2nd in the SEC, mostly because SEC play doesn’t make any sense.
Second in the SEC or no, South Carolina is not very good. Not top 100 in offense of defense for the season their SEC numbers are not really better; they are 8th in the SEC in offensive efficiency and 7th on defense. Here are their four factors.
And in the SEC
They play pretty fast, not a great shooting team though their 2pt% has been better in conference play. They turn it over a bunch. Make their living on offense by getting offensive boards and getting to the free throw line. Minus they star player in Chris Silva (6-9, 234lb Sr) their offensive profile isn’t that dissimilar from West Virginia though SC shoots it better and WV is elite at OR% and FTR while SC is just pretty good. On defense they play middle of the road eFG% defense but get killed on the boards and foul like crazy.
South Carolina is an average power conference basketball team. An average power conference basketball team that is pretty good at winning close basketball games. 2pts at Florida because Mike White can’t draw up last second, full court pass defense. In OT against Mississippi State, back from a 5% win probability at Vandy (who blew a 12pt lead with 14 to go and a 5pt lead with under two minutes left) and by 3 at home against Auburn.
They are led in scoring by Chris Silva….. wait, what? No they aren’t. AJ Lawson (6-6, 172lb Fr) was a 3 star top 150 type recruit – the kind of recruit who you might think would take a season or so to start to contribute, not somebody who should be showing up on anyone’s draft board (even as a second round pick) by December of his Freshman year.
SOUTH CAROLINA’S A.J. LAWSON IS A TOP-50 NBA PROSPECT, SAYS ONE NATIONAL ANALYST
The South Carolina men’s basketball season is young, but NBA Draft season is on-going. The Athletic has released a top 100 list for the 2019 draft. It features Gamecocks freshman A.J. Lawson is in the top 50.
Read more
Lawson averages 13.9pts a game but looks like a volume scorer. A poor shooter (44.2% eFG%) he takes 46% of his shots from three despite shooting 22% in SEC play. He does get to the rim just about 30% of the time and hits just about 60% of those looks which was getting him to the free throw line at a good clip in nonconference play. But he has found the SEC whistle a little less generous. Still, his turnover numbers don’t look like a freshman and neither do his fouls called per 40 minute. He is from Canada.
AJ LAWSON - C/O 2019 | HIGHLIGHTS FROM 2017
Aj Lawson - C/O 2019 | Highlights from 2017
Silva, of course, is originally from Gabon and you all are familiar with him. He has been the face of South Carolina basketball for the last couple of season; a tough interior player who finishes at the rim and gets to the free throw line – he is trailing only Grant Williams in fouls drawn per 40 minutes in SEC play. In conference, he is hitting 70% of his 2pt attempts, pulling down 1 in every 4 opponent misses and almost 1 in every 10 missed Gamecock shots. He has an incredible 17 blocks in his last seven games. Silva has struggled with foul trouble this season and his scoring numbers are down slightly from last year but he is still more than capable of filling it up, he had 32 against Auburn.
SILVA LEADS GAMECOCKS TO 80-77 WIN OVER NO. 16 AUBURN
South Carolina improves to 5-1 in the SEC behind an impressive outing from senior Chris Silva.
Read more
Before the season started, South Carolina looked like Silva and a bunch of dudes. One of those dudes, Hassani Gravett (6-2, 188lb Sr) taught himself how to shoot. A 48 eFG% shooter last season Gravette is above 40% from three on the season and is one of only two guys who are serious three point threats for the Gamecocks, though given the past few games they will probably all shoot out of their minds. Not much of a shooter inside the three point line Hassani does a decent job of getting to the free throw line.
Keyshawn Bryant (6-6, 180l Fr) is another youngster who is getting a bunch of playing time. Long and ultra athletic Bryant’s is putting up a bunch of freshmen numbers; fouls a bunch, turns it over, doesn’t shoot it well – terrible at the line. But he is getting valuable experience as a freshman, 21 minutes, 9.5 pts and 3.6 boards a game. He has SEC hops.
BRYANT SKIES FOR VICIOUS TOMAHAWK SLAM
Bryant skies for vicious tomahawk slam
Bryant skies for vicious tomahawk slam
Maik Kostar (6-11, 264lb Jr) is a traditional big (though he is 3-5 from three) with pedestrian shooting number, mostly because almost 70% of his takes are as 2pt jumpers. He is really good on the offensive glass, he blocks shots and get’s a bunch of steals (he is 12th in the conference in steal %) and he gets to the FT line where he is often awful.
Felipe Haase (6-9, 253lb Soph) from Chile is the other three point threat. 37% on the season and 40% during SEC play, he doesn’t shoot a ton (2 or 3 threes a game) and most of his 2pt attempts are mid range jumpers. Also has good FTR number and is a 90% at the line.
Tre Campbell (6-0, 183lb Sr) rounds out the guys who average at least 20 minutes a game – a grad transfer from Georgetown he is handling back up point guard duties and other than his steal% numbers looks like a pretty average to below average back up in the SEC.
You may be wondering why Justin Minaya (6-5, 215lb Soph) is not in the rotation, he had knee surgery back in November and is just now working his way back into practice.
For the last 4 seasons the Gamecocks have been known for terrific defenses which made them a tough out anytime and anywhere but especially down there. But this is not the same kind of South Carolina team. This season’s Gamecocks play pretty average defense – they have given up over the national average in pts per possession in each of their last five SEC games and they gave up 1.2 against Michigan and 1.13 at home against Virginia. Their defense is nothing special.
That doesn’t mean this will be an easy game, Martin’s teams always play hard and they have been winning. I am sure the place will be packed for the #1 team in the country.
KP says this is a 12pt Vol win and an 86% win probability. I suspect that Tennessee will be favored by at least 8 in Vegas. As for me, I just don’t think we lose this one. Deacon has great respect for Martin and will have our guys up for this one – and they just aren’t really that good. But they are 5-1 in the SEC so I expect the Vols to treat this like a big game against a conference contender. I am more worried about the trip to College Station Saturday.
GBO
South Carolina 10-9 (5-1) #103 KP.
The #1 Vols head back out on the road this week after holding up their end of the Big 12/SEC Challenge. First up, South Carolina and the Game chickens. Tennessee has mostly owned the SEC version of Carolina (44-27 overall) and a win Tuesday would mean that the Vols have played the Gamecocks even in Columbia (15-16 heading into the game). It would also mean that these Vols have tied the program record for most wins in a row at 15.
A couple years ago Frank Martin rode Sindarius Thornwell to an improbably Final Four run but his team has mostly sucked since then. 17-16 last season and a 5-7 nonconference record to start this campaign that included a loss to one of the worst teams in the country at Wyoming, a home loss to Stony Brook and getting rolled by 20pts at home against Wofford. There are only two teams in the conference rated lower than South Carolina in the Ken Pom.
So of course they are 5-1 to start conference play, with wins at Florida and at home against Mississippi State and Auburn. They are tied for 2nd in the SEC, mostly because SEC play doesn’t make any sense.
Second in the SEC or no, South Carolina is not very good. Not top 100 in offense of defense for the season their SEC numbers are not really better; they are 8th in the SEC in offensive efficiency and 7th on defense. Here are their four factors.
And in the SEC
They play pretty fast, not a great shooting team though their 2pt% has been better in conference play. They turn it over a bunch. Make their living on offense by getting offensive boards and getting to the free throw line. Minus they star player in Chris Silva (6-9, 234lb Sr) their offensive profile isn’t that dissimilar from West Virginia though SC shoots it better and WV is elite at OR% and FTR while SC is just pretty good. On defense they play middle of the road eFG% defense but get killed on the boards and foul like crazy.
South Carolina is an average power conference basketball team. An average power conference basketball team that is pretty good at winning close basketball games. 2pts at Florida because Mike White can’t draw up last second, full court pass defense. In OT against Mississippi State, back from a 5% win probability at Vandy (who blew a 12pt lead with 14 to go and a 5pt lead with under two minutes left) and by 3 at home against Auburn.
They are led in scoring by Chris Silva….. wait, what? No they aren’t. AJ Lawson (6-6, 172lb Fr) was a 3 star top 150 type recruit – the kind of recruit who you might think would take a season or so to start to contribute, not somebody who should be showing up on anyone’s draft board (even as a second round pick) by December of his Freshman year.
SOUTH CAROLINA’S A.J. LAWSON IS A TOP-50 NBA PROSPECT, SAYS ONE NATIONAL ANALYSTThe South Carolina men’s basketball season is young, but NBA Draft season is on-going. The Athletic has released a top 100 list for the 2019 draft. It features Gamecocks freshman A.J. Lawson is in the top 50.
Read more
Lawson averages 13.9pts a game but looks like a volume scorer. A poor shooter (44.2% eFG%) he takes 46% of his shots from three despite shooting 22% in SEC play. He does get to the rim just about 30% of the time and hits just about 60% of those looks which was getting him to the free throw line at a good clip in nonconference play. But he has found the SEC whistle a little less generous. Still, his turnover numbers don’t look like a freshman and neither do his fouls called per 40 minute. He is from Canada.
AJ LAWSON - C/O 2019 | HIGHLIGHTS FROM 2017Aj Lawson - C/O 2019 | Highlights from 2017
Silva, of course, is originally from Gabon and you all are familiar with him. He has been the face of South Carolina basketball for the last couple of season; a tough interior player who finishes at the rim and gets to the free throw line – he is trailing only Grant Williams in fouls drawn per 40 minutes in SEC play. In conference, he is hitting 70% of his 2pt attempts, pulling down 1 in every 4 opponent misses and almost 1 in every 10 missed Gamecock shots. He has an incredible 17 blocks in his last seven games. Silva has struggled with foul trouble this season and his scoring numbers are down slightly from last year but he is still more than capable of filling it up, he had 32 against Auburn.
SILVA LEADS GAMECOCKS TO 80-77 WIN OVER NO. 16 AUBURNSouth Carolina improves to 5-1 in the SEC behind an impressive outing from senior Chris Silva.
Read more
Before the season started, South Carolina looked like Silva and a bunch of dudes. One of those dudes, Hassani Gravett (6-2, 188lb Sr) taught himself how to shoot. A 48 eFG% shooter last season Gravette is above 40% from three on the season and is one of only two guys who are serious three point threats for the Gamecocks, though given the past few games they will probably all shoot out of their minds. Not much of a shooter inside the three point line Hassani does a decent job of getting to the free throw line.
Keyshawn Bryant (6-6, 180l Fr) is another youngster who is getting a bunch of playing time. Long and ultra athletic Bryant’s is putting up a bunch of freshmen numbers; fouls a bunch, turns it over, doesn’t shoot it well – terrible at the line. But he is getting valuable experience as a freshman, 21 minutes, 9.5 pts and 3.6 boards a game. He has SEC hops.
BRYANT SKIES FOR VICIOUS TOMAHAWK SLAM
Bryant skies for vicious tomahawk slam
Bryant skies for vicious tomahawk slam
Maik Kostar (6-11, 264lb Jr) is a traditional big (though he is 3-5 from three) with pedestrian shooting number, mostly because almost 70% of his takes are as 2pt jumpers. He is really good on the offensive glass, he blocks shots and get’s a bunch of steals (he is 12th in the conference in steal %) and he gets to the FT line where he is often awful.
Felipe Haase (6-9, 253lb Soph) from Chile is the other three point threat. 37% on the season and 40% during SEC play, he doesn’t shoot a ton (2 or 3 threes a game) and most of his 2pt attempts are mid range jumpers. Also has good FTR number and is a 90% at the line.
Tre Campbell (6-0, 183lb Sr) rounds out the guys who average at least 20 minutes a game – a grad transfer from Georgetown he is handling back up point guard duties and other than his steal% numbers looks like a pretty average to below average back up in the SEC.
You may be wondering why Justin Minaya (6-5, 215lb Soph) is not in the rotation, he had knee surgery back in November and is just now working his way back into practice.
For the last 4 seasons the Gamecocks have been known for terrific defenses which made them a tough out anytime and anywhere but especially down there. But this is not the same kind of South Carolina team. This season’s Gamecocks play pretty average defense – they have given up over the national average in pts per possession in each of their last five SEC games and they gave up 1.2 against Michigan and 1.13 at home against Virginia. Their defense is nothing special.
That doesn’t mean this will be an easy game, Martin’s teams always play hard and they have been winning. I am sure the place will be packed for the #1 team in the country.
KP says this is a 12pt Vol win and an 86% win probability. I suspect that Tennessee will be favored by at least 8 in Vegas. As for me, I just don’t think we lose this one. Deacon has great respect for Martin and will have our guys up for this one – and they just aren’t really that good. But they are 5-1 in the SEC so I expect the Vols to treat this like a big game against a conference contender. I am more worried about the trip to College Station Saturday.
GBO
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