SEC RPI 03/06/2025

#1

fryeguy93

Rufus X. Sarsaparilli
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#1
As of today, the SEC is ranked as follows in RPI

#6........Oklahoma
#7........Tennessee
#8........Vanderbilt
#9........Auburn
#10.....Florida
#14.....Mississippi
#16.....Georgia
#17.....Alabama
#25.....Arkansas
#28.....Texas
#38.....South Carolina
#69.....Mississippi State
#80.....Kentucky
#93.....LSU
#131...Texas A&M
#230...Missouri

Tennessee actually dropped from #2 to #12 in RPI last week because of the North Alabama and Rice wins.. RPI schedule looks better in 2025. The Vols have played 3 games against #200 or above (UNA, Asheville, Radford) and three more to go (AL State, Bellarmine, and Indiana State) Indiana State has tanked this season as they sit at #225, but they were a senior laden team in 2024. Tennessee had 11 games against #200 or above in 2024. With a sweep this weekend, I think Tennessee will likely be about the same due to #275 Radford.


Texas A&M are a woeful 0-1 against Q1 (Arizona)
0-1 against Q2
2-2 against Q3
5-1 against Q4 (loss to UTSA)
5-5 in last 10 games
They are 2 games into 10 game homestand. Their first SEC series will be home vs #17 Alabama and 2nd series will be in Nashville.
The Aggies do not have much team to get their **** together. If they lose one or two of their three games against New Mexico State this weekend, these wheels may fall off the cult wagon.

Oklahoma's high RPI is largely based on wins in Round Rock against Oregon State (#10 RPI) and Minnesota (#19) as well as a run rule loss at Dallas Baptist (#59)

Vanderbilt is a little better offensively over 2024 but still having issues. They run ruled St. Bonaventure on Wednesday 14-1. They did well over St. Mary's (#40) 2 weekends ago but tanked last week in LA

Auburn lost midweek at UAB but went 3-0 against field in Arlington last weekend including a close win over Oregon State (who needs to stop scheduling SEC Games). The Tigers have played the RPI game early on like Kentucky has done in the past. They have beaten some OOC teams that are not all that good but have high RPIs (Holy Cross and Wright State)

Ole Miss jumped 14 RPI spots but just beating Murray State (#11) who was previously undefeated. That was extra innings. The Racers had previously played no team better than #110 UT Martin. Ole Miss best win was #4 Clemson in Arlington.


Interestingly, Warren Nolan's RPI projection for Tennessee is located at Predicted RPI Team Sheet for Tennessee Volunteers Baseball | WarrenNolan.com

He predicts the Vols will finish #2 RPI at 49-7 and 23-7 in the SEC

the seven losses?
2 losses at Arkansas
1 loss at Alabama
2 loss at LSU
1 loss to South Carolina
1 loss to Texas A&M


So the algorithm predicts Tennessee will lose two series

Nolan's pick to finish #1 in RPI is North Carolina 49-6 | 24-6 in Acc
But picks UNC will be wept at Fla State

#3 Florida State
51-3 | 28-2 in ACC
With only losses to Clemson, Miami and Florida

#4 Georgia
44-12 | 20-10 in SEC
including sweep by Florida and 2 losses at Texas

#5 Clemson
46-10 | 21-9 in ACC
Series loss at Fla State 2-1 and 2-1 to Wake Forest
 
#2
#2
Nolan's algorithm does not have the same faith in LSU as pollsters.

#18 LSU
46-10 | 21-9 SEC (that would be 2nd in SEC)
Series Losses: at Texas A&M (0-3)
Single losses to Tennessee, Alabama, Texas, Auburn, Oklahoma and Missouri.
 
#3
#3
you know....Tennessee has like a 5-game losing streak to Arkansas and hasn't won an actual series since the beginning of time

Another 1-2 series with them would be the sole disappointment.
 
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#5
#5
As of today, the SEC is ranked as follows in RPI

#6........Oklahoma
#7........Tennessee
#8........Vanderbilt
#9........Auburn
#10.....Florida
#14.....Mississippi
#16.....Georgia
#17.....Alabama
#25.....Arkansas
#28.....Texas
#38.....South Carolina
#69.....Mississippi State
#80.....Kentucky
#93.....LSU
#131...Texas A&M
#230...Missouri

Tennessee actually dropped from #2 to #12 in RPI last week because of the North Alabama and Rice wins.. RPI schedule looks better in 2025. The Vols have played 3 games against #200 or above (UNA, Asheville, Radford) and three more to go (AL State, Bellarmine, and Indiana State) Indiana State has tanked this season as they sit at #225, but they were a senior laden team in 2024. Tennessee had 11 games against #200 or above in 2024. With a sweep this weekend, I think Tennessee will likely be about the same due to #275 Radford.


Texas A&M are a woeful 0-1 against Q1 (Arizona)
0-1 against Q2
2-2 against Q3
5-1 against Q4 (loss to UTSA)
5-5 in last 10 games
They are 2 games into 10 game homestand. Their first SEC series will be home vs #17 Alabama and 2nd series will be in Nashville.
The Aggies do not have much team to get their **** together. If they lose one or two of their three games against New Mexico State this weekend, these wheels may fall off the cult wagon.

Oklahoma's high RPI is largely based on wins in Round Rock against Oregon State (#10 RPI) and Minnesota (#19) as well as a run rule loss at Dallas Baptist (#59)

Vanderbilt is a little better offensively over 2024 but still having issues. They run ruled St. Bonaventure on Wednesday 14-1. They did well over St. Mary's (#40) 2 weekends ago but tanked last week in LA

Auburn lost midweek at UAB but went 3-0 against field in Arlington last weekend including a close win over Oregon State (who needs to stop scheduling SEC Games). The Tigers have played the RPI game early on like Kentucky has done in the past. They have beaten some OOC teams that are not all that good but have high RPIs (Holy Cross and Wright State)

Ole Miss jumped 14 RPI spots but just beating Murray State (#11) who was previously undefeated. That was extra innings. The Racers had previously played no team better than #110 UT Martin. Ole Miss best win was #4 Clemson in Arlington.


Interestingly, Warren Nolan's RPI projection for Tennessee is located at Predicted RPI Team Sheet for Tennessee Volunteers Baseball | WarrenNolan.com

He predicts the Vols will finish #2 RPI at 49-7 and 23-7 in the SEC

the seven losses?
2 losses at Arkansas
1 loss at Alabama
2 loss at LSU
1 loss to South Carolina
1 loss to Texas A&M


So the algorithm predicts Tennessee will lose two series

Nolan's pick to finish #1 in RPI is North Carolina 49-6 | 24-6 in Acc
But picks UNC will be wept at Fla State

#3 Florida State
51-3 | 28-2 in ACC
With only losses to Clemson, Miami and Florida

#4 Georgia
44-12 | 20-10 in SEC
including sweep by Florida and 2 losses at Texas

#5 Clemson
46-10 | 21-9 in ACC
Series loss at Fla State 2-1 and 2-1 to Wake Forest
Guess this isn’t a young man’s game after all.
 
#7
#7
Warren Nolan's algorithm has made some minor tweaks after all the games have been played.


Earlier this week (see post above) the computer predicted Tennessee would finished 49-7 and 23-7 in SEC

Now? 52-4 and 26-4

Oddly, 2 of those losses are predicted for Friday and Saturday this week against Florida. With single loss to Vanderbilt at home and at Arkansas in the last game of the season.
I'll take it, but what an odd two games to pick.
Nolan predicts Florida will finish RPI #10 at 38-18 / 16-14

In conference play, Nolan's computer predicts predicts the Vols will score double digit runs only 3 times.
 
#8
#8
Warren Nolan's algorithm has made some minor tweaks after all the games have been played.


Earlier this week (see post above) the computer predicted Tennessee would finished 49-7 and 23-7 in SEC

Now? 52-4 and 26-4

Oddly, 2 of those losses are predicted for Friday and Saturday this week against Florida. With single loss to Vanderbilt at home and at Arkansas in the last game of the season.
I'll take it, but what an odd two games to pick.
Nolan predicts Florida will finish RPI #10 at 38-18 / 16-14

In conference play, Nolan's computer predicts predicts the Vols will score double digit runs only 3 times.
That really is a head scratcher
 
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#9
#9
Warren Nolan's algorithm has made some minor tweaks after all the games have been played.


Earlier this week (see post above) the computer predicted Tennessee would finished 49-7 and 23-7 in SEC

Now? 52-4 and 26-4

Oddly, 2 of those losses are predicted for Friday and Saturday this week against Florida. With single loss to Vanderbilt at home and at Arkansas in the last game of the season.
I'll take it, but what an odd two games to pick.
Nolan predicts Florida will finish RPI #10 at 38-18 / 16-14

In conference play, Nolan's computer predicts predicts the Vols will score double digit runs only 3 times.
Does he have anyone else only losing 4 or less?
 
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#10
#10
Does he have anyone else only losing 4 or less?

Funny that you mention it. The computer has updated
the header says Vols will finished 22-8
But the details show only 5 losses

Lose the LSU series 2-1
1 loss at Arkansas
1 loss to Florida
1 loss at South Carolina


Before this weekend the computer had UNC finish as #1 RPI but the Hells lost 2 this weekend at home to Stanford

Now has Florida state finishing at 50-4 at 27-3

UGA is predicted #2 at 48-8 | 24-6

Oregon is #3 47-9 | 26-4

Clemson is #4 49-7 | 24-6
 
#11
#11
Funny that you mention it. The computer has updated
the header says Vols will finished 22-8
But the details show only 5 losses

Lose the LSU series 2-1
1 loss at Arkansas
1 loss to Florida
1 loss at South Carolina


Before this weekend the computer had UNC finish as #1 RPI but the Hells lost 2 this weekend at home to Stanford

Now has Florida state finishing at 50-4 at 27-3

UGA is predicted #2 at 48-8 | 24-6

Oregon is #3 47-9 | 26-4

Clemson is #4 49-7 | 24-6
The only thing that stayed the same was the 1 game loss prediction to Arkansas.
 
#14
#14
Due to Missouri series LSU is down to #59 in RPI

So, clearly D1 will keep them at #1

Tennessee is up to solid #1 and will be consensus in every other ranking and poll.

LSU has only 5 combined games in Q1-Q3. AND 2 of those 5 are against North Dakota State
They are 15-1 against Q4
Their only loss is to #131 Omaha

Midweek Vols host Q2 foe in #36 ETSU
LSU plays Q3 New Orleans


LSU plays at Texas (RPI 10)
Vols at Alabama (RPI 11)
 
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#15
#15
Due to Missouri series LSU is down to #59 in RPI

So, clearly D1 will keep them at #1

Tennessee is up to solid #1 and will be consensus in every other ranking and poll.

LSU has only 5 combined games in Q1-Q3. AND 2 of those 5 are against North Dakota State
They are 15-1 against Q4
Their only loss is to #131 Omaha


LSU plays at Texas
Vols at Alabama
Is playing Mizzou that much of a liability?
 
#18
#18
Oh yeah.
Here are LSU’s Q4 games so far.
And if you watched the games, Mizzou hung in the games far better than they should have.

View attachment 728415
Missouri’s RPI may get worse despite a bump in schedule strength from start of conference play.

They may be the worst SEC in quite a while.
 
#19
#19
I see D1 made us #1.
That will make Tennessee the consensus #1 in only the 5th week of the season.

If Tennessee can stun the world and sweep this week, they may start lapping the field.

 
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#20
#21
#21
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