Schedule analysis of UT and OSU

[First&Tenn]

I thought it would be interesting to break down the Tennessee and Ohio State schedules. I heard everyone in the media talk about how OSU had two Top 10 wins, and that's why they deserved a home playoff game instead of UT. However, I feel like it should be noted that most computer models have the strength of schedule for both teams nearly equal. As such, I wanted to take a deeper dive to see if anything stood out.

Here's what I found:
(Note: I'm using the final playoff rankings top 25)

- In Top 25 wins, we all know that OSU has 2 (Penn St and Indiana) to Tennessee's 1 (Bama)
- However, in wins over teams with at least 1 top 25 win, UT has a noticeable advantage.
- UT has 5 wins over teams with at least 1 top 25 win: Bama (UGA, SC, Mizzou), Oklahoma (Bama), Florida (Miss), Kentucky (Miss), and Vandy (Bama)
- OSU has only one win over a team with at least 1 top 25 win: Penn St (Illinois)
- Both teams have a similar number of wins over bowl teams
- UT has 5 (NC St, Oklahoma, Florida, Bama, and Vandy)
- OSU has 6 (W. Michigan, Marshall, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn St, and Indiana)

One other thing I wanted to understand was the relative talent level of opponents. After all, talented teams can sometimes play better than their record and bring unexpected challenges. To approximate this, I used the 247 composite talent rankings. While imperfect, it's the best I could do to get an overall estimate of talent levels for every team. According to these rankings, UT is 17th most talented team overall, and OSU is the 3rd.

UT played 9 teams ranked in the top 50 most talented teams: Bama (1), UGA (2), Oklahoma (7), Florida (12), Kentucky (24), Arkansas (26), Miss St (34), NC St (40), and Vandy (50)

OSU played 6 teams ranked in the top 50 most talented teams: Oregon (6), Penn St (11), Michigan (16), Nebraska (23), Purdue (37), Iowa (39), and Mich St (41)

Ultimately, OSU is a good team, but I don't think they have been challenged to the extent that several in the media believe. I believe that their good wins are over teams that haven't been battle tested in the same way that SEC teams have been. The Vols have played the only two teams with better talent composite scores and went 1-1, while also playing more talented teams overall. Further, UT played many more dangerous and capable teams based on top 25 wins, and OSU is coming off of a home loss to a team with a nearly identical talent composite. These factors point to a UT team that shouldn't be overmatched or overwhelmed by the team or environment they will face.

Regardless of the outcome, TN has overachieved again this season already. I'm excited to watch the Vols go into one of the great stadiums in college football to play a major brand name team for the right to continue their pursuit of a national championship.

It's great to be a Tennessee Vol. GBO!

 

[Power_Sweep_Vol]

I thought it would be interesting to break down the Tennessee and Ohio State schedules. I heard everyone in the media talk about how OSU had two Top 10 wins, and that's why they deserved a home playoff game instead of UT. However, I feel like it should be noted that most computer models have the strength of schedule for both teams nearly equal. As such, I wanted to take a deeper dive to see if anything stood out.

Here's what I found:
(Note: I'm using the final playoff rankings top 25)

- In Top 25 wins, we all know that OSU has 2 (Penn St and Indiana) to Tennessee's 1 (Bama)
- However, in wins over teams with at least 1 top 25 win, UT has a noticeable advantage.
- UT has 5 wins over teams with at least 1 top 25 win: Bama (UGA, SC, Mizzou), Oklahoma (Bama), Florida (Miss), Kentucky (Miss), and Vandy (Bama)
- OSU has only one win over a team with at least 1 top 25 win: Penn St (Illinois)
- Both teams have a similar number of wins over bowl teams
- UT has 5 (NC St, Oklahoma, Florida, Bama, and Vandy)
- OSU has 6 (W. Michigan, Marshall, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn St, and Indiana)

One other thing I wanted to understand was the relative talent level of opponents. After all, talented teams can sometimes play better than their record and bring unexpected challenges. To approximate this, I used the 247 composite talent rankings. While imperfect, it's the best I could do to get an overall estimate of talent levels for every team. According to these rankings, UT is 17th most talented team overall, and OSU is the 3rd.

UT played 9 teams ranked in the top 50 most talented teams: Bama (1), UGA (2), Oklahoma (7), Florida (12), Kentucky (24), Arkansas (26), Miss St (34), NC St (40), and Vandy (50)

OSU played 6 teams ranked in the top 50 most talented teams: Oregon (6), Penn St (11), Michigan (16), Nebraska (23), Purdue (37), Iowa (39), and Mich St (41)

Ultimately, OSU is a good team, but I don't think they have been challenged to the extent that several in the media believe. I believe that their good wins are over teams that haven't been battle tested in the same way that SEC teams have been. The Vols have played the only two teams with better talent composite scores and went 1-1, while also playing more talented teams overall. Further, UT played many more dangerous and capable teams based on top 25 wins, and OSU is coming off of a home loss to a team with a nearly identical talent composite. These factors point to a UT team that shouldn't be overmatched or overwhelmed by the team or environment they will face.

Regardless of the outcome, TN has overachieved again this season already. I'm excited to watch the Vols go into one of the great stadiums in college football to play a major brand name team for the right to continue their pursuit of a national championship.

It's great to be a Tennessee Vol. GBO!

Good stats...we have overachieved, not by a lot, but we have for sure...I hink our o/u was 9.5 before the season and we were +140 to make the playoffs. So I realize when I b*tch about the obvious lack of imagination on offense it's always good to remember the bottom line, but damn man, is it too much to ask for to have SOME deception and trick plays/clever plays in our offense? Watching Texas saturday snap it thru Manning's legs to a RB my first thought was, "I can't ever see us doing that"