Sagarin Ratings: What a Strange Season It's Been

[DiderotsGhost]

I've followed the Sagarin ratings for years. There are others that are similar, such as ESPN FPI and Massey, as well. But this year, Sagarin is the weirdest I've ever seen it. The Sagarin rating is actually an ensemble of 3 different models: 'Predictor', 'Golden Mean', and 'Recent'. Sagarin publishes the results of all 3 of these models and the overall score (which is the Sagarin rating).

While the 3 different models that go into Sagarin can differ, I've never seen them differ as much as this season. For instance, Michigan State comes in at #34 on Predictor but #9 on Recent. On the other end of the spectrum, you have a team like USC that is #42 on Predictor and #77 on Recent. In essence, the Recent scores are completely out of whack with the other 2 models in a way that they've rarely been before. This year is unusual.

Here are the most recent Sagarin ratings for the SEC and the Recent model rating in parenthesis:

1. Georgia (1)
2. Alabama (3)
9. Florida (15)
17. Texas A&M (28)
18. Ole Miss (18)
20. Auburn (23)
21. Kentucky (12)

23. Arkansas (17)
27. Tennessee (25)
38. LSU (52)
41. Miss State (38)
72. South Carolina (73)
78. Missouri (91)
143. Vanderbilt (147)

Good news:
(*) We are a borderline top 25 team according to Sagarin
(*) Surprisingly, we are rated above Texas A&M (slayer of Alabama) on Recent rating; but remember A&M dropped one to Miss State the week before
(*) With home field advantage, Sagarin would have the game vs Ole Miss being a toss-up
(*) We are about 25 point favorites over South Alabama and 29 point favorites over Vanderbilt, meaning our odds of making a bowl game are high

Bad news:
(*) Our "big wins" over the past 2 weeks were over the 2nd and 3rd worst SEC teams
(*) Georgia is now a big favorite to win the national title; Sagarin would now have Georgia favored by 4 points in a neutral site game vs Alabama; and they are even bigger favorites 8 point favorites if you use the "Recent" score
(*) On the road, we'd be about 5 point underdogs to Kentucky based on the current scores
(*) We are still 15 point underdogs to Georgia and 17 point underdogs to Bama (we play Bama on the road and Georgia at home)

For some reason, and I may be totally wrong, I think are odds of beating Ole Miss are lower than predicted, but our odds of beating Kentucky are higher than predicted. I do think are depth issues are going to become a factor in this four-game stretch, but I'm impressed with what Heupel's done this year regardless.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

I've followed the Sagarin ratings for years. There are others that are similar, such as ESPN FPI and Massey, as well. But this year, Sagarin is the weirdest I've ever seen it. The Sagarin rating is actually an ensemble of 3 different models: 'Predictor', 'Golden Mean', and 'Recent'. Sagarin publishes the results of all 3 of these models and the overall score (which is the Sagarin rating).

While the 3 different models that go into Sagarin can differ, I've never seen them differ as much as this season. For instance, Michigan State comes in at #34 on Predictor but #9 on Recent. On the other end of the spectrum, you have a team like USC that is #42 on Predictor and #77 on Recent. In essence, the Recent scores are completely out of whack with the other 2 models in a way that they've rarely been before. This year is unusual.

Here are the most recent Sagarin ratings and the Recent model rating in parenthesis:

1. Georgia (1)
2. Alabama (3)
9. Florida (15)
17. Texas A&M (28)
18. Ole Miss (18)
20. Auburn (23)
21. Kentucky (12)

23. Arkansas (17)
27. Tennessee (25)
38. LSU (52)
41. Miss State (38)
72. South Carolina (73)
78. Missouri (91)
143. Vanderbilt (147)

Good news:
(*) We are a borderline top 25 team according to Sagarin
(*) Surprisingly, we are rated above Texas A&M (slayer of Alabama) on Recent rating; but remember A&M dropped one to Miss State the week before
(*) With home field advantage, Sagarin would have the game vs Ole Miss being a toss-up
(*) We are about 25 point favorites over South Alabama and 29 point favorites over Vanderbilt, meaning our odds of making a bowl game are high

Bad news:
(*) Our "big wins" over the past 2 weeks were over the 2nd and 3rd worst SEC teams
(*) Georgia is now a big favorite to win the national title; Sagarin would now have Georgia favored by 4 points in a neutral site game vs Alabama; and they are even bigger favorites 8 point favorites if you use the "Recent" score
(*) On the road, we'd be about 5 point underdogs to Kentucky based on the current scores
(*) We are still 15 point underdogs to Georgia and 17 point underdogs to Bama (we play Bama on the road and Georgia at home)

For some reason, and I may be totally wrong, I think are odds of beating Ole Miss are lower than predicted, but our odds of beating Kentucky are higher than predicted. I do think are depth issues are going to become a factor in this four-game stretch, but I'm impressed with what Heupel's done this year regardless.

Thanks DG, we just need to keep our head down and keep improving. This week unquestionably is a big one.

 

[WilliamDuVOL]

Yeah I am unsure how to feel about Ole Miss. If the offense is clicking, I think it will be like yesterday's game with Arkansas, and whoever scores last wins. Oddly enough, ESPN's matchup predictor has us as just over 50% favorites to beat Ole Miss and Kentucky.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

Yeah I am unsure how to feel about Ole Miss. If the offense is clicking, I think it will be like yesterday's game with Arkansas, and whoever scores last wins. Oddly enough, ESPN's matchup predictor has us as just over 50% favorites to beat Ole Miss and Kentucky.

It'll be interesting for sure.

My pessimistic side tends to think we'll lose and it's really more of a depth issue than anything. We were thin on D before the season even started and now, how many key players have we lost? Theo Jackson, Juwan Mitchell, Doneiko Slaughter ... is Byron Young out? In a game where getting defensive stops is key, it's going to be difficult with a depleted defense. Tim Banks has done an outstanding job this year, but there's only so much you can do with so few players.

If we do win, though, I feel like Heupel should be considered Coach of the Year in the SEC. I'd be pretty happy to go 1-3 in the next 4 games, beat USA and Vandy, and finish the season 7-5. Then, hopefully, Heupel's resume starts to speak for itself, and we can hit the transfer portal hard in the offseason and have some depth in 2022.

 

[ProudVOLfan]

They have UGA beating Bama? I don't see that happening this year. Thinking Ole Miss will take us to wood shed Saturday but I will be happy to be wrong

 

[a vol n tears]

I think Corral is playing super confident right now and he thinks he is going to complete every throw. That is why I think they win. However, if he could throw a couple of interceptions early or the Dline can hit him early and often, it might take some of that positive edge away.

 

[Ty4Vols]

Yeah I am unsure how to feel about Ole Miss. If the offense is clicking, I think it will be like yesterday's game with Arkansas, and whoever scores last wins. Oddly enough, ESPN's matchup predictor has us as just over 50% favorites to beat Ole Miss and Kentucky.

Just to be 100% accurate. The team that scored last in the Ole Miss vs Arkansas game did lose.