Rooting guide for selection Sunday

[bleedingTNorange]

This is all from Will’s article which I will link for those who want to read its entirety (A Selection Sunday rooting guide for Tennessee fans) but I am going to attempt to extract the info and summarize it in an easy to follow post. Essentially we are looking at a 3 or 4 seed, so first round opponent will be either a 13 or 14 seed, 2nd round opponent if we advance would be a 6/11 winner or 5/12 winner. So what Will does is looks at trends we’ve struggled against:

They’re 3-6 against top 25 offenses and 20-4 against all others. They’ve yet to lose a game to a Quadrant 3 or 4 opponent, which would include some potential 13/14 seed opponents. They’re 0-4 against top 100 defensive rebounding teams and 23-6 against all others. So on and so forth.

If Tennessee gets a 3 seed:
Best draw of 14 seeds: Grand Canyon
Worst draw of 14 seeds: Furman

Best draw of 6 seeds: TCU or Miami
Worst draw of 6 seeds: St. Mary’s or Duke

Best draw of 11 seeds: Pittsburgh or Arizona State
Worse draw of 11 seeds: NC State or Providence


If Tennessee gets a 4 seed:
Best draw of 13 seeds: Yale
Worst draw of 13 seeds: Kent State, Iona, Louisiana

Best draw of 5 seeds: Iowa State
Worst draw of 5 seeds: San Diego State

Best draw of 12 seeds: College of Charleston
Worse draw of 12 seeds: Drake


Other notes:
Best 1 seed in our bracket: Purdie
Worst 1 seed in our bracket: Houston

Best 2 seed in our bracket: Baylor

 

[CAVPUT]

Iona.....*shudder*.

 

[zaqhhh]

To amplify the point about good offenses beating us:

Games we have lost after leading by 6 or more: 8
Games we have won after trailing by 6 or more: 3

Our defense can suffocate most offenses but against an elite offense, we cannot keep up if we fall behind.

 

[KeyVol14]

If TN gets a 4 seed and plays Yale, we’re most likely looking to play VA in the 2nd round….great.

 

[VolCalls]

If TN gets a 4 seed and plays Yale, we’re most likely looking to play VA in the 2nd round….great.

Yale is out. Don’t be surprised if Vols are a 5-seed.

 

[KeyVol14]

Yale is out. Don’t be surprised if Vols are a 5-seed.

5 seed would be BS but we should be used to that

 

[VolFreakJosh]

Yale is out. Don’t be surprised if Vols are a 5-seed.

There’s no logical reason to drop us to a 5 seed.

Most of you are looking at the back end of the schedule.

Wins over Kansas, Alabama, Texas, should count for something. We have a good resume to back it up.

 

[SGMVols]

We’re not going to be a 5. Stop with the over the top doomer crap

 

[TheMookieMonster]

What a weird season though. #4 in NET. #6 in KenPom. Better metrics the last year. Yet we’re most likely going to be a 4-seed. Just wild.

 

[TennesseeYankee]

Yale is out. Don’t be surprised if Vols are a 5-seed.

Zero chance Vols drop to a 5

 

[joevols89]

We lost our PG and 7 of the last 12. They have enough reason to drop us there if they want to. I don't think they do though.

 

[CornbreadVol]

Ugh there are some solid mid majors this year. VCU is another that I do not want to play

 

[Johnnyreb#VFL]

We lost our PG and 7 of the last 12. They have enough reason to drop us there if they want to. I don't think they do though.

Kinda like when UT football dropped below Alabama in the CFP and committee members said they took Hooker’s injury into consideration for rankings.

 

[joevols89]

Kinda like when UT football dropped below Alabama in the CFP and committee members said they took Hooker’s injury into consideration for rankings.

Yeah I think if we had at least managed to knock off Missouri that would've taken punishing us for ZZ's injury off the table. We haven't looked terrible - but certainly not 3/4 seed good vs Auburn/Ole Miss/Missouri.

 

[KeyVol14]

There’s no logical reason to drop us to a 5 seed.

Most of you are looking at the back end of the schedule.

Wins over Kansas, Alabama, Texas, should count for something. We have a good resume to back it up.

They will hold ZZ’s injury against us. It’s not fair but don’t be surprised. Same thing happened in football with Hookers injury.

 

[VolCalls]

We’re not going to be a 5. Stop with the over the top doomer crap

Our play warrants a 4-seed. The committee MAY decide to drop us to a 5 since we aren’t the same team without ZZ. They always take key injuries into account as part of the bracketing principles, like it or not.

 

[VolCalls]

They will hold ZZ’s injury against us. It’s not fair but don’t be surprised. Same thing happened in football with Hookers injury.

They have to take the injury into account because 1) they are obligated to follow the bracketing principles, which includes taking injuries into account, and 2) we aren’t the same team we were a month ago.

People talk about “it’s the entire body of work” and it is. We looked like a 1/2-seed from November-January and an 8/9 seed since.

 

[njvols]

Ugh there are some solid mid majors this year. VCU is another that I do not want to play

I would probably do better blindfolding myself and picking my bracket this year. So many teams can beat most any team in the tourney on any given day.

 

[KeyVol14]

They have to take the injury into account because 1) they are obligated to follow the bracketing principles, which includes taking injuries into account, and 2) we aren’t the same team we were a month ago.

People talk about “it’s the entire body of work” and it is. We looked like a 1/2-seed from November-January and an 8/9 seed since.

Last year we got screwed out of a 2 seed after winning the conference tourney. I think the comitte plays favoritism and only applies whole body of work to the blue bloods of basketball.

 

[VolPack22]

What a weird season though. #4 in NET. #6 in KenPom. Better metrics the last year. Yet we’re most likely going to be a 4-seed. Just wild.

Two buzzer beaters will do that. Change those around and we are at 24-7 to end the regular season and locked as a 3 seed with an outside shot at a 2 seed. Crazy how those two games essentially changed our entire postseason outlook.

 

[VolCalls]

Last year we got screwed out of a 2 seed after winning the conference tourney. I think the comitte plays favoritism and only applies whole body of work to the blue bloods of basketball.

Baloney. If that’s the case Houston wouldn’t be a 1-seed this year, nor would Wichita State have been in 2014, or Xavier in 2018, or Saint Joseph’s the overall #1 in 2004 even though they lost in the first round of their conference tournament.

We got a 3 last year because all of the seeding is done on Saturday and the teams are bracketed on Sunday, so we hadn’t won the tournament yet. And it was a moot point because we couldn’t get out of the second round.

 

[maxorange]

We lost our PG and 7 of the last 12. They have enough reason to drop us there if they want to. I don't think they do though.

"Last 12 games" is not a metric at all based on recent history

 

[VOLnVANDYland]

"Last 12 games" is not a metric at all based on recent history

Cool, but you can’t eliminate perception and human biases in a subjective process like NCAA tournament selection… we have not looked the part of a top 12-16 team since the clock stuck February

 

[joevols89]

"Last 12 games" is not a metric at all based on recent history

Doesn't matter. We lost a lot down the stretch. 6 losses in the last 10 isn't any better.

 

[KeyVol14]

Baloney. If that’s the case Houston wouldn’t be a 1-seed this year, nor would Wichita State have been in 2014, or Xavier in 2018, or Saint Joseph’s the overall #1 in 2004 even though they lost in the first round of their conference tournament.

We got a 3 last year because all of the seeding is done on Saturday and the teams are bracketed on Sunday, so we hadn’t won the tournament yet. And it was a moot point because we couldn’t get out of the second round.

Ok, Lunardi clearly stated last year if had UK won the conference tourney that they would have been the 2 seed. He completely contradicted the above statement lol. Not trying to argue but I remember it clear as day.