Revised chances to win the SECE from here

#3
#3
Although shouldn't it really just be more like this:

UT, USC, UK - 25% each

UF - 20%

UGA - 5%

Vandy - 0%
 
#7
#7
So the team that controls its own destiny and has one less loss than UF has the same percentage?

Please
 
#9
#9
dickens821 said:
The only way Kentucky has that much of a chance is if they beat UF too... :good!:
Click to expand...

They have an excellent chance to do that, IMO.


dickens821 said:
Although shouldn't it really just be more like this:

UT, USC, UK - 25% each

UF - 20%

UGA - 5%

Vandy - 0%
Click to expand...

Can't agree. First, USC owns a tiebreaker against UK and so big advtantage there for the 'cocks. Second, I think it highly likely that UT loses at least one more. Florida's only shot is to run the table and that basically means beating both Ky and SCar on the road and that's unlikely.

Right now, both UK and South Carolina have to be given some credit for both where they are on the season and how they are playing.
 
#10
#10
UTLCA said:
So the team that controls its own destiny and has one less loss than UF has the same percentage?

Please
Click to expand...


I'd say that the odds that Florida wins out and the odds that UT wins out are roughly the same, yes. Both play UK and South Carolina. What's wrong with that reasoning?
 
#11
#11
lawgator1 said:
They have an excellent chance to do that, IMO.




Can't agree. First, USC owns a tiebreaker against UK and so big advtantage there for the 'cocks. Second, I think it highly likely that UT loses at least one more. Florida's only shot is to run the table and that basically means beating both Ky and SCar on the road and that's unlikely.

Right now, both UK and South Carolina have to be given some credit for both where they are on the season and how they are playing.
Click to expand...

Allllright

USC -- 30%
UK--25%
UT --25%
UF --15%
UGA -- 5%
Vandy - 0%
 
#13
#13
lawgator1 said:
I'd say that the odds that Florida wins out and the odds that UT wins out are roughly the same, yes. Both play UK and South Carolina. What's wrong with that reasoning?
Click to expand...

Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but IF Tennessee wins out, they are guaranteed to win the SEC East. The same cannot be said of Florida. That right there changes the odds for Florida.
 
#14
#14
UTLCA said:
So the team that controls its own destiny and has one less loss than UF has the same percentage?

Please
Click to expand...

I think it's reasonable; UF has a better team than we do. Even if you (optimistically) give us a 75% chance to beat each of Alabama, South Carolina, and Kentucky, that only gives us a 42% chance to win all three games. Unfortunately, I think UF's chances of winning out are better than ours.

Ascribing any actual percentages would be just making things up. However:

UK- UF & UT at home
SC - @UT, UF at home
UT - @UK, SC at home
UF - @UK, @SC

UK has the best schedule, but the timing of having to play UF right now (right after LSU, UF with an off week) is terrible for them. UF has the best team, but has to play two games on the road. We're in decent shape, but having to play at Alabama is the hardest game any of those four have to play outside of each other. It's basically a pick'em right now.
 
#15
#15
lawgator1 said:
I'd say that the odds that Florida wins out and the odds that UT wins out are roughly the same, yes. Both play UK and South Carolina. What's wrong with that reasoning?
Click to expand...

Our chances have to be better than yours for the two reasons I've stated. And because we get USC at home.
 
#17
#17
SKoreaVol said:
Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but IF Tennessee wins out, they are guaranteed to win the SEC East. The same cannot be said of Florida. That right there changes the odds for Florida.
Click to expand...

Right. But if in fact the teams have an equal chance of winning out, then their odds of winning the SECE are close to the same. For UT to have a slightly higher percentage, you are talking both teams winning out and that seems highly, highly unlikely.

Like I said before, I really don't think either of us gets it done, anyway.
 
#18
#18
I've been looking more at the schedule. Other than the games between each other:

KY - Miss St, @UGA
SC - Vandy, @Ark
UT - @Bama, Ark, Vandy
UF - UGA (neutral), Vandy

Advantage: UF. Disadvantage: us.
 
#19
#19
Vercingetorix said:
I've been looking more at the schedule. Other than the games between each other:

KY - Miss St, @UGA
SC - Vandy, @Ark
UT - @Bama, Ark, Vandy
UF - UGA (neutral), Vandy

Advantage: UF. Disadvantage: us.
Click to expand...
What about UT going to Lexington? Oh, other than between each other. Never mind.
 
#20
#20
In the sense that both UT and UF have to play SC, Ky, and Vandy, the flip game is UT at 'bama and Florida playing gerogia. I can't say Florida has an advantage with that. Maybe a little but not much.
 
#25
#25
Florida better watch out for Georgia. You heard it here first. They are going to be hungry to prove a point and Florida could be looking past them. Georgia is wounded and dangerous. Beware Gator.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.
Advertisement



Back
Top