Red zone passing efficiency 115th nationally

#1
kamoshika

kamoshika

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#1
Digging deeper into our 2019 season numbers, I thought it'd be interesting to focus on a key area I think everyone agrees was subpar this year: our passing game in the red zone. I hope this is an outlier, but it's a bit alarming to see the enormous YoY efficiency decline (20th in RZ completion % in 2018, 123rd this year). Any thoughts as to why we were so much worse this year with (usually) the same QB?

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Side notes: We averaged just 2.62 yards per rush in the RZ this year vs 2.94 last year, an 11% drop. We scored a TD every 6.04 RZ plays this year vs 4.23 in 2018; 46 more RZ plays in 2019 produced just 1 more TD than 2018 (23 vs 22).

Source: cfbstats.com - 2019 National Team Leaders
 
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#2
#2
I will toss out a couple of thoughts here. 1. Our ol is not great but I felt like they improved and definitely were an improvement over last season. 2. Our qb play is awful. In the red zone problems that occur in other parts of the field become magnified and so even less time for a quarterback to make reads, make decisions, throw precisely, etc. etc.
3. Most teams have a qb that can analyze the defensive alignment and adjust the play accordingly. We had one that would secretly try to jump over the pile on an uncalled quarterback sneak instead of handing the ball off to a running back that could walk into the end zone.

For a fun exercise - check out the completion percentage of our primary qb in the red zone. I bet it is below 30%. He had guys open in the end zone against Indiana on a couple of occasions.
 
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#3
#3
Fullfillmer said:
I will toss out a couple of thoughts here. 1. Our ol is not great but I felt like they improved and definitely were an improvement over last season. 2. Our qb play is awful. In the red zone problems that occur in other parts of the field become magnified and so even less time for a quarterback to make reads, make decisions, throw precisely, etc. etc.
3. Most teams have a qb that can analyze the defensive alignment and adjust the play accordingly. We had one that would secretly try to jump over the pile on an uncalled quarterback sneak instead of handing the ball off to a running back that could walk into the end zone.

For a fun exercise - check out the completion percentage of our primary qb in the red zone. I bet it is below 30%. He had guys open in the end zone against Indiana on a couple of occasions.
Click to expand...

Is the sec from the opponents 40 and in. There is a 8% average drop off in completion % ...shorter field. JG its a 17% drop...so according to some our super accurate QB struggled....but last year with a worse OL had better %
 
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#6
#6
whodeycin85 said:
Is the sec from the opponents 40 and in. There is a 8% average drop off in completion % ...shorter field. JG its a 17% drop...so according to some our super accurate QB struggled....but last year with a worse OL had better %
Click to expand...

Have to remember, this years schedule was much tougher with GA State and BYU...:cool:
 
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#12
#12
kamoshika said:
Digging deeper into our 2019 season numbers, I thought it'd be interesting to focus on a key area I think everyone agrees was subpar this year: our passing game in the red zone. I hope this is an outlier, but it's a bit alarming to see the enormous YoY efficiency decline (20th in RZ completion % in 2018, 123rd this year). Any thoughts as to why we were so much worse this year with (usually) the same QB?

View attachment 252395

Side notes: We averaged just 2.62 yards per rush in the RZ this year vs 2.94 last year, an 11% drop. We scored a TD every 6.04 RZ plays this year vs 4.23 in 2018; 46 more RZ plays in 2019 produced just 1 more TD than 2018 (23 vs 22).

Source: cfbstats.com - 2019 National Team Leaders
Click to expand...

You answered your own query with a piece of your quoted interrogative, "the same QB." He has gotten no better and even regressed in some areas, this must be one of those.
 
#13
#13
when did it become shiek to throw on the 2 yardline. thats when you line up in i form and see whos big uglys are better.
 
#14
#14
Fullfillmer said:
I will toss out a couple of thoughts here. 1. Our ol is not great but I felt like they improved and definitely were an improvement over last season. 2. Our qb play is awful. In the red zone problems that occur in other parts of the field become magnified and so even less time for a quarterback to make reads, make decisions, throw precisely, etc. etc.
3. Most teams have a qb that can analyze the defensive alignment and adjust the play accordingly. We had one that would secretly try to jump over the pile on an uncalled quarterback sneak instead of handing the ball off to a running back that could walk into the end zone.

For a fun exercise - check out the completion percentage of our primary qb in the red zone. I bet it is below 30%. He had guys open in the end zone against Indiana on a couple of occasions.
Click to expand...
I know we look at season, rightfully so, but wonder how we look in the last 8 games of the season.
 
#15
#15
Fullfillmer said:
I will toss out a couple of thoughts here. 1. Our ol is not great but I felt like they improved and definitely were an improvement over last season. 2. Our qb play is awful. In the red zone problems that occur in other parts of the field become magnified and so even less time for a quarterback to make reads, make decisions, throw precisely, etc. etc.
3. Most teams have a qb that can analyze the defensive alignment and adjust the play accordingly. We had one that would secretly try to jump over the pile on an uncalled quarterback sneak instead of handing the ball off to a running back that could walk into the end zone.

For a fun exercise - check out the completion percentage of our primary qb in the red zone. I bet it is below 30%. He had guys open in the end zone against Indiana on a couple of occasions.
Click to expand...
Agree. JG is hard to watch sometimes. He missed on several RZ passes that even I could have probably made.
 
#16
#16
kamoshika said:
Digging deeper into our 2019 season numbers, I thought it'd be interesting to focus on a key area I think everyone agrees was subpar this year: our passing game in the red zone. I hope this is an outlier, but it's a bit alarming to see the enormous YoY efficiency decline (20th in RZ completion % in 2018, 123rd this year). Any thoughts as to why we were so much worse this year with (usually) the same QB?

View attachment 252395

Side notes: We averaged just 2.62 yards per rush in the RZ this year vs 2.94 last year, an 11% drop. We scored a TD every 6.04 RZ plays this year vs 4.23 in 2018; 46 more RZ plays in 2019 produced just 1 more TD than 2018 (23 vs 22).

Source: cfbstats.com - 2019 National Team Leaders
Click to expand...
Pretty indicative of JGs passing style. He has no touch...throws a late bullet every time. Only time that works is if it's a quick slant or a crossing pattern.
 
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#17
#17
The passing windows open & close quicker and are smaller in the red zone. JG's slow reads and deliveries cause more of a problem in the red zone.

Also, JG almost never makes plays with his feet. When he gets flushed out of the pocket, it's usually a bad result, especially in the red zone. And I cannot remember the last time he's made a tackler miss when he tucks and tries to run for a first down or TD. QB scrambling/running ability is a key piece of most successful red zone college offenses, but not ours with JG.
 
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#18
#18
JG's completion % in the red zone fell to 45%. As bad as his time to deliver was overall... it got even worse in the red zone. On average he held the ball 3.68 seconds even while taking only one red zone sack. Neither of UT's other guys were good either in much fewer attempts. Maurer had 6. JG had 40.

Just one more thing you should be able to expect your RS Jr QB to do well.
 
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#20
#20
Where are all the JG fans in this thread?

Expect JGs numbers to be worse next year, if he plays. He won't have Callaway and Jennings to bail him out by going up and getting the badly thrown balls. Or getting extra yards after the catch. Both of which pad JGs stats to look better than he is.
 
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#21
#21
Voljlt said:
Limiting the number of attempts would help as well. Passing on 4 straight downs from the 5 yd line or less (First offensive series of Gator Bowl) instead of taking a couple of running attempts doesn't help those percentages.
Click to expand...
The 4 straight passes is classic Chaney play calling and this likely will not be the last time we see it unless CJP puts a stop to it. He did it at UGA.
The man can call some great plays at times yet seems to be stubbornly determined to pass or determined to run at times. With that said, JG was sailing the balls over everyone so we could have maybe scored if his passes had been more catchable.
But he's the one making $1.5 million so what do I know?
 
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#22
#22
PandamoniumReigns said:
Where are all the JG fans in this thread?

Expect JGs numbers to be worse next year, if he plays. He won't have Callaway and Jennings to bail him out by going up and getting the badly thrown balls. Or getting extra yards after the catch. Both of which pad JGs stats to look better than he is.
Click to expand...

Numbers are hateful. Whoever compiled those stats is just a hater.
 
#23
#23
One thing I wish they would limit inside the redzone (mainly inside the 10) is subbing players in and out. First, it's a long way to run on the field. Second, more time is wasted because the D is allowed to sub and the ball can't be snapped until the D is in place.

How many penalties or useless T.O.'s occur inside the 10? Have the personnel in place to run a couple of plays. If the D isn't set make them burn a T.O.
 
#24
#24
Volfan76 said:
Pretty indicative of JGs passing style. He has no touch...throws a late bullet every time. Only time that works is if it's a quick slant or a crossing pattern.
Click to expand...
That’s a perfect description. He recognizes late and tries to save it with his arm.
 
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