The Vols return from the land of the Ducks to the not so friendly confines of Florida Field. Oregon gave Tennessee the worst beating in 100 years, in a game where it seem very little went right after the first offensive series. Butch will hope the team is able to learn from their mistakes, and quickly put them behind them as the men in Orange open SEC play.
Florida and Alabama sit alone on top of the mountain of who Vol fans would most like to beat each year, though many will argue which team comes first, few will dispute these are "the big 2". Sorry UGA, you are a close 3rd. Beat one of them, and it can be considered "a good year". Beat both, and Vol fans wear silly grins for an entire year, and the birth rate goes up in a slight, but measurable way in Big Orange Country.
Florida sits at 1-1, after giving the game to Miami with an orange and green bow on top. Although many predicted this game would be a Miami upset, and were correct, it was not because Miami outplayed the Gators. Take a look at these stats:
FLA MIA
1st Downs 22 10
Total Yards 413 212
Passing 291 162
Rushing 122 50
3rd Down Con 6-15 1-11
Turnovers 5 1
Possession 38:20 21:40
It's not like the Hurricanes dominated the game. You would be hard pressed to find another team who has won a game this season, only converting 1 3rd down in the entire game. Turnovers absolutely killed the Gators, and it is not a series of blunders they are likely to repeat.
Keys to the game:
1. Quarterback Roulette: Round and round and round it goes. Who will start? Nobody knows. Though starting quarterback has not been careless with the football (1 int, 1 sack), he has simply not made plays. Even big plays should have been bigger plays, if he would have hit the receiver in stride. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that he is going to improve, with a weak arm and timid pocket presence being his biggest issues, and Butch has seen enough to declare the QB position open for the taking this week. It's too bad for Worley, who by all accounts works hard and is a high character guy (high motor, gamer, deceptive speed... for those keeping score at home), but he just isn't getting it done.
Back-up Nathan Peterson seems to have a bit more of an arm, but from what fans have seen from him in mop-up duty, and in the O&W game, he just doesn't seem to be "the future." True freshmen Dobbs and Ferguson will get a fair shake, and don't be surprised if Butch does not announce a starter until game time, and more than one QB gets playing time. I have a feeling Butch doesn't give a rat's behind about red-shirts.
If the Vols cannot get more production from the QB position, Florida's nasty defensive backs are going to lock down our WR's, ala Oregon, and the defensive front 7 are going to key on the run like Muschamp in a staring contest.
2. Drag down Driskel: Jeff Driskel is not a great quarterback, but he is juuuuussst good enough to win most of the time. He is prone to be sacked (36 in 2012, 4 in 2013), but the TN defensive front, who has members dropping like flies, has to get pressure... something they have not done in years. If they get pressure, Driskel has been known to cough it up. If they don't, his 70.9% completion rate will eat us alive.
3. Paging all WR's...: The Vols had a rough time against Oregon's defensive backs. And when they got open, they had too many drops. It's game 4, and we are still waiting for someone to step up and say, "I'm the best motherlovin' WR on this dam team. I'm making every catch, and if any of you other jokers want catches, you're gonna have to take them from me." Someone needs to display the skill and swagger to lead this group, and give the QB a target he can throw to in confidence. The return of Pig and JJ will help this week.
Right now, the WR's are playing to the level of the 2008 Lucas Taylor, Gerald Jones, Denarius Moore group who led the Vols with a not so mind blowing combination of 67 catches for 926 yards. If we have a new starter, they may take more chances with the football, and if the WR's are not any more open than they have been, there will be interceptions.
4. 3rd Down, and sit down: Two things that will cause you to lose sleep tonight:
a. Florida has allowed 2-24 3rd down conversion attempts to go for first downs.
b. TN converted only 5-15 against Oregon.
Interestingly enough, Florida and Tennessee have the same % of 3rd down conversions this year (44%). The team that has the higher % in this game will have a decided advantage.
5. Give and Take: As I mentioned previously, Florida does have a tendency to give the ball away. They rank 118th in the nation in turnover margin (losing 6, taking 2). TN is tied for 4th (losing 2, taking 8). The Vols need to "play for, and make the breaks" if they are going to upend the Gators.
6. Run for your lives: Florida's defense does not like to give up yards on the ground (3rd in rushing defense). They have pounded their opponents, leaving a staunch 50 yards per game worth of scraps to be found. Miami stud Duke Johnson got a whopping 59 yards (2.8 per carry), after torching Florida Atlantic for 186.
Tennessee is currently rushing for 244 per game, so something's gotta give. The old stat that we hear every year, and I'm not sure how current it is, but there is definitely a trend, "Whoever rushes for more yards in the TN FL game, has won the game ___ of the last ___ seasons." Florida is only rushing for 192, but TN's defense is allowing 105 more yards per game on the ground than Florida, so it's hard to see which way this one will go. With TN thin at DT, it may not go well.
7. Tale of the tape: Each coaching staff has seen the tape of how to beat the other team this season. The questions are:
a. Do either team have the horses to implement those same schemes?
b. Which team has done a better job adjusting from their loss?
Prediction: Tennessee's QB situation is completely unpredictable. Is Peterman capable of being like Rick Clausen, who in spite of physical limitations, still played good enough to get the job done? Will Dobbs or Ferguson step in as Freshmen sensations like Tyler Bray? Is Worley still running the show? Who the heck knows?
I think ultimately, Florida's defense is too strong for the Vols, who still have not found an offensive rhythm, and the TN defense is too banged up and slow to contain the gators. I hate to say it, but...
TN 14
FL 34
Let the debate
