'25 Recruiting Forum: Official Tennessee versus Vanderbilt Pre-game/Game Thread

#102
#102
HoleInTheRoof said:
View attachment 793058

MASSIVE money shift and zero line movement.

Are we really going to lose to candy?

Edit: for those wondering, this is considered reverse line movement. While the line isn't moving, it's mostly bouncing between -2.5 and -3. This despite the money on the vast majority of the money on Tennessee.

The expected line movement with that kind of disparity is the line shifting to Tennessee -4, -4.5 or even -5.

With it staying at -3, thats concerning.
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We were only a 3 point favorite in the Swamp and were up 31-0 at the half. Game will have nothing to do with the final line.
 
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#105
#105
TheBigOne10 said:
We were only a 3 point favorite in the Swamp and were up 31-0 at the half. Game will have nothing to do with the final line.
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Right, but what did we see prior to that game. This is from 11/20. 82 percent of the money on the Gators plus 4, with no line movement.

This is from the morning of the game. 97% of the money was on Florida plus 4, and the line did not move.

Vegas was not afraid of losing money on this game.

Similarly, as of this morning, its 82% of the money on Tennessee -3, and it has been for a couple days now. Zero line movement.
 
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#106
#106
OGbabyaviVol said:
But that’s not reverse line movement yet. Reverse line is the line actually is dropping in the face of money on TN. Now, if David Smith shows up as the ref, then we will 100% know what is going on.
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Don't know who David Smith is, but I'm guessing he's Pat Adams-esque? If so, you can't bet the farm he's on his way to Knoxville. The curse knows no boundaries.
 
#107
#107
CAVPUT said:
Don't know who David Smith is, but I'm guessing he's Pat Adams-esque? If so, you can't bet the farm he's on his way to Knoxville. The curse knows no boundaries.
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Like the curse of Vols losing in the swamp?

Told you Vols could win that one just as easily as they could lose it. Same goes for Saturday.
 
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#108
#108
TheBigOne10 said:
We were only a 3 point favorite in the Swamp and were up 31-0 at the half. Game will have nothing to do with the final line.
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And listen, I get it. There is a part of me that things we're going to whip their ass. I think they've played a soft schedule, while losing to every good team they've played, and benefited from playing teams with key injuries (i.e. mizzou without their starting QB etc).

I'd want to think everything is pure and natural and there are no shenanigans going on behind the curtain - there is no way lines makers have any idea what is going to happen on the field/court/diamond etc. But I also believe in a fair amount of conspiracies. Nothing crazy like the earth is flat or we did not land on the moon etc... but I believe in a fair amount. Blame the US government for that as they one time trusted me with a Top Secret SCI security clearance. And there has been plenty of instances of shady stuff in sports with point shaving scandals, corrupt refs, etc.

We all make the jokes about Sankey protecting certain teams, etc.

Before the Oklahoma game, we were favored, and all the money was on Tennessee minus the points. The line moved in the opposite direction. That is a tell tale sign something is fishy - and we all saw the result.

While a large percentage of money on one side with zero line movement isn't as bad, it is worth watching. If youre a sports better, then place your money on Vandy plus the points.

I'm driving from South Carolina to the game, and I'll be leaving the stadium without my voice. There is a part of me that refuses to believe we lose to Vanderbilt. But.... I don't like the action on this game to date. I'm hoping it starts to move in our direction in the next 24 hours.
 
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#110
#110
HoleInTheRoof said:
And listen, I get it. There is a part of me that things we're going to whip their ass. I think they've played a soft schedule, while losing to every good team they've played, and benefited from playing teams with key injuries (i.e. mizzou without their starting QB etc).

I'd want to think everything is pure and natural and there are no shenanigans going on behind the curtain - there is no way lines makers have any idea what is going to happen on the field/court/diamond etc. But I also believe in a fair amount of conspiracies. Nothing crazy like the earth is flat or we did not land on the moon etc... but I believe in a fair amount. Blame the US government for that as they one time trusted me with a Top Secret SCI security clearance. And there has been plenty of instances of shady stuff in sports with point shaving scandals, corrupt refs, etc.

We all make the jokes about Sankey protecting certain teams, etc.

Before the Oklahoma game, we were favored, and all the money was on Tennessee minus the points. The line moved in the opposite direction. That is a tell tale sign something is fishy - and we all saw the result.

While a large percentage of money on one side with zero line movement isn't as bad, it is worth watching. If youre a sports better, then place your money on Vandy plus the points.

I'm driving from South Carolina to the game, and I'll be leaving the stadium without my voice. There is a part of me that refuses to believe we lose to Vanderbilt. But.... I don't like the action on this game to date. I'm hoping it starts to move in our direction in the next 24 hours.
Click to expand...
 
#115
#115
JCVol00 said:
so a lot of money movement but no line movement is bad?
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Okay, I'll shut up.

ChatGPT told me this:

1. Money % swings don’t matter nearly as much as where sharp money lands​


When 82% was on Vanderbilt early in the week, two things were happening:


(A) Early-week money is low volume
Most “bets” and “money %” early in the week come from:


  • small bettors
  • app algorithms
  • people hammering “key numbers” automatically
  • stale-line chasers

This early money rarely moves lines unless it's sharp.


(B) Books didn’t move off –3 because sharps weren’t backing Vandy.
If those early percentages were real sharp interest, you would’ve seen:


Tennessee –3 → –2.5 → –2 → –1.5


But the opposite happened:


When the line hit –2.5, Tennessee money showed up and pushed it back to –3.


👉 This means the market respected Tennessee, not Vanderbilt.



✅ 2. “98% of the money on Tennessee” often means ONE large bet​


Late in the week, the percentage can get wildly skewed because:


  • A few whales drop $50k–$200k+
  • Recreational bettors pile in on the favorite on Thursday–Saturday

So even if the split shows 98% Tennessee, it could literally reflect:


  • One $200,000 bet on Tennessee
  • Ten thousand $25 bets also on Tennessee
  • A few small Vanderbilt bets sprinkled in

This is why sportsbooks themselves warn:
Money % ≠ professional money.



✅ 3. The line NOT moving isn't suspicious—it confirms the “true number”​


If the line stayed at –3, it means one thing:


➡️ Books believe –3 is the correct number.


If they got slammed by sharp Tennessee money, they’d go to –3.5 or –4.
If they were scared of early sharp Vanderbilt money, they’d go to –2.


Neither happened.


This means:


  • The early Vanderbilt money wasn’t sharp
  • The late Tennessee money isn’t forcing movement either
  • Books are comfortable with their exposure
  • Their models agree this should be a –3 game

Markets do not move just because the public is lopsided.



✅ 4. Why doesn’t 98% Tennessee money push the line to –4?​


Because books know:


  • Tennessee’s power rating says –3
  • Tennessee’s inconsistency caps their ceiling
  • Vanderbilt is bad, but not “unbettable”
  • A move to –4 would invite sharp Vandy buyback

Books keep it at the “real” number so they don’t get middled.



❗ 5. So… is this a “trap spot”?​


No. Here’s what a trap or reverse line movement would look like:


  • 90%+ of money on Tennessee
  • BUT line drops: –3 → –2.5 → –2

This indicates sharp money hitting the dog.


You didn’t get anything close to that.


Instead:


  • –3 → –2.5 → back to –3
  • No real downward movement
  • No sharp indicators on Vanderbilt
  • Books refusing to move off 3

This is not reverse line movement.
It’s standard shaping around a key number.



🟩 BOTTOM LINE​


The money flipping from 82% Vandy → 98% Tennessee is NOT concerning
because:


  • Early % = low volume, not sharp
  • Books held firm at –3 because models say “–3 is right”
  • Late % is inflated by big bets and public rush
  • No sharp buyback on Vanderbilt
  • No true reverse line movement

There’s zero market signal suggesting Vanderbilt is the right side.



I'm back on the WGWTFA train. CHOOO CHOOO!!!!!
 
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#116
#116
HoleInTheRoof said:
Okay, I'll shut up.

ChatGPT told me this:

1. Money % swings don’t matter nearly as much as where sharp money lands​


When 82% was on Vanderbilt early in the week, two things were happening:


(A) Early-week money is low volume
Most “bets” and “money %” early in the week come from:


  • small bettors
  • app algorithms
  • people hammering “key numbers” automatically
  • stale-line chasers

This early money rarely moves lines unless it's sharp.


(B) Books didn’t move off –3 because sharps weren’t backing Vandy.
If those early percentages were real sharp interest, you would’ve seen:


Tennessee –3 → –2.5 → –2 → –1.5


But the opposite happened:


When the line hit –2.5, Tennessee money showed up and pushed it back to –3.


👉 This means the market respected Tennessee, not Vanderbilt.



✅ 2. “98% of the money on Tennessee” often means ONE large bet​


Late in the week, the percentage can get wildly skewed because:


  • A few whales drop $50k–$200k+
  • Recreational bettors pile in on the favorite on Thursday–Saturday

So even if the split shows 98% Tennessee, it could literally reflect:


  • One $200,000 bet on Tennessee
  • Ten thousand $25 bets also on Tennessee
  • A few small Vanderbilt bets sprinkled in

This is why sportsbooks themselves warn:
Money % ≠ professional money.



✅ 3. The line NOT moving isn't suspicious—it confirms the “true number”​


If the line stayed at –3, it means one thing:


➡️ Books believe –3 is the correct number.


If they got slammed by sharp Tennessee money, they’d go to –3.5 or –4.
If they were scared of early sharp Vanderbilt money, they’d go to –2.


Neither happened.


This means:


  • The early Vanderbilt money wasn’t sharp
  • The late Tennessee money isn’t forcing movement either
  • Books are comfortable with their exposure
  • Their models agree this should be a –3 game

Markets do not move just because the public is lopsided.



✅ 4. Why doesn’t 98% Tennessee money push the line to –4?​


Because books know:


  • Tennessee’s power rating says –3
  • Tennessee’s inconsistency caps their ceiling
  • Vanderbilt is bad, but not “unbettable”
  • A move to –4 would invite sharp Vandy buyback

Books keep it at the “real” number so they don’t get middled.



❗ 5. So… is this a “trap spot”?​


No. Here’s what a trap or reverse line movement would look like:


  • 90%+ of money on Tennessee
  • BUT line drops: –3 → –2.5 → –2

This indicates sharp money hitting the dog.


You didn’t get anything close to that.


Instead:


  • –3 → –2.5 → back to –3
  • No real downward movement
  • No sharp indicators on Vanderbilt
  • Books refusing to move off 3

This is not reverse line movement.
It’s standard shaping around a key number.



🟩 BOTTOM LINE​


The money flipping from 82% Vandy → 98% Tennessee is NOT concerning
because:


  • Early % = low volume, not sharp
  • Books held firm at –3 because models say “–3 is right”
  • Late % is inflated by big bets and public rush
  • No sharp buyback on Vanderbilt
  • No true reverse line movement

There’s zero market signal suggesting Vanderbilt is the right side.



I'm back on the WGWTFA train. CHOOO CHOOO!!!!!
Click to expand...
Interesting breakdown, curious to see how the line moves from here til tomorrow
 
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#117
#117
JCVol00 said:
Interesting breakdown, curious to see how the line moves from here til tomorrow
Click to expand...

I asked ChatGPT additional questions and it insisted the game was at Vanderbilt tomorrow so they might be retarded. I corrected it and it still suggested the lack of movement wasn’t a big deal.
 
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