nicksjuzunk
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Date: Saturday, November 17th
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET
Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Network: CBS
Tennessee remains at home this week, having thoroughly dismantled upstart Kentucky who probably thought they could walk into Neyland and take what they wanted. They didn't, and they never do. Order has been restored, and Kentucky has once again been put under the foot of Tennessee, where they belong. This week, another team rolls into Neyland who probably thinks they can dictate their will as well. Truth be told, Tennessee has not fared well against Missouri since their move to the SEC in 2012. They will likely find that things are a bit more challenging than they think. Fun fact... Derek Dooley returns to Neyland Stadium. Although he technically survived his final game against Missouri when he was coaching the Vols, the Missouri game was the nail in the coffin. His bumbling of that game was an all-timer. Of course, Missouri literally finished off Butch, so there is a weird relationship there.
Key Points:
1. Lock Down: Although Missouri is not a one dimensional team, the offense goes through Quarterback Drew Lock. Missouri is very much a less talented version of West Virginia. Will Grier is the superior QB in nearly every category, but you can put Lock in a similar camp. Now, the good news is, the Tennessee secondary is NOTHING like the team that got torched for 429 yards passing in the opener, having improved dramatically, and in their understanding of the defense. Our defense vs. WV was slow. Today, they look ready to stand toe-to-toe with a middle of the SEC team. Tennessee is giving up 205 yards passing on the season (40th nationally), but more importantly, only 158 yards per game over the last 3 games. They are improving, and they need to hold Lock to under 250 yards passing in this game.
Ready for the real eye opener... Lock is only averaging 206 yards per game vs. SEC opponents. 4/6 of those teams allow less passing yards than the Tennessee defense, but given our recent improvement, I think we nail this and hold him below 250. Key Point: Mizzou, below 250 yards passing.
2. Attack the Sky: Missouri, on the other hand is a stale 118th nationally in passing yards yielded, giving up a tasty 278. JG and the Tennessee wide receivers should be licking their chops as they are about to face the worst pass defense they have seen since the OL began to turn the corner. Jarrett did a great job feeling pressure and stepping up into the pocket on Saturday. It was actually shocking to see, having forgotten what it looks like for that to actually happen, and I expected some Dobbs like scrambles for 38 yards, but he planted and found open WR's. Perfect. We need JG to continue to be sharp, not let the INT bubble pop, and to out pass Drew Lock. In week 3, those last words were laughable. This week, they are attainable. Mizzou is 97th in the country in sacks, only averaging 1.7 sacks per game. JG needs to stay clean, feel the pressure, and hit the target, all afternoon long. Key Point: Above 250 yards passing.
3. Move Forward: One of the struggles of the Tennessee offense this year has been the insane amount of offensive plays that have resulted in a loss. Fortunately, the Vols are improving here, and at just the right time. Mizzou is 84th in the nation in this category, only managing 5.4 TFL per game. The Vols need to keep the chains moving. The Tigers are 30th in the nation in rushing defense (yards per game) but it's a little misleading. Their pass defense is so bad, teams exploit the weakness. A closer look reveals they give up 3.92 yards per carry. Hardly juggernauts. Like everyone before them, Tennessee will attack through the air, but the running game needs to be efficient enough to keep the defense honest and they need to keep falling forward, not backwards. Key Point: Reduce negative plays, establish some running game.
4. Dooley vs. Pruitt: This is just an interesting coordinator match-up between Tennessee's current head coach, and it's former head coach. In spite of being a lousy head coach, Dooley is a pretty smart dude, and he's not been bad as an OC for Mizzou. However, Pruitt is renowned for being one of the top defensive minds in college football. It will be fascinating to see how each of these coaches make counter adjustments to one another and who gets the edge. As for me, I'm taking the guy still wearing orange.
5. Stop the Run: Another key component which I'm not going to detail is the need to sidetrack the Mizzou running game. Their top backs hit around 5 yards per carry, which is really impressive, and the DL needs to keep that locked down.
Prediction: The dreaded 3:30 CBS time slot awaits us. I can already hear the announcers flabbergasted at how Tennessee can't seem to get out of their own way, but that's the echo of memories past. On this Saturday, I like how Tennessee matches up. I didn't like it two months ago, but I'm really digging it 'round mid-November. I think Tennessee is able to create enough stops in the Mizzou passing game and the Tennessee WR's are too much to handle downfield. The Mizzou DL can't get to JG enough to cause problems and the running game does enough. The runningbacks are involved in the passing game and Helton continues to sharpen his craft. Folks are surprised, but Tennessee fans walk away happy, bowl eligibility secured.
TN 34
Mizzou 24
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET
Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Network: CBS
Tennessee remains at home this week, having thoroughly dismantled upstart Kentucky who probably thought they could walk into Neyland and take what they wanted. They didn't, and they never do. Order has been restored, and Kentucky has once again been put under the foot of Tennessee, where they belong. This week, another team rolls into Neyland who probably thinks they can dictate their will as well. Truth be told, Tennessee has not fared well against Missouri since their move to the SEC in 2012. They will likely find that things are a bit more challenging than they think. Fun fact... Derek Dooley returns to Neyland Stadium. Although he technically survived his final game against Missouri when he was coaching the Vols, the Missouri game was the nail in the coffin. His bumbling of that game was an all-timer. Of course, Missouri literally finished off Butch, so there is a weird relationship there.
Key Points:
1. Lock Down: Although Missouri is not a one dimensional team, the offense goes through Quarterback Drew Lock. Missouri is very much a less talented version of West Virginia. Will Grier is the superior QB in nearly every category, but you can put Lock in a similar camp. Now, the good news is, the Tennessee secondary is NOTHING like the team that got torched for 429 yards passing in the opener, having improved dramatically, and in their understanding of the defense. Our defense vs. WV was slow. Today, they look ready to stand toe-to-toe with a middle of the SEC team. Tennessee is giving up 205 yards passing on the season (40th nationally), but more importantly, only 158 yards per game over the last 3 games. They are improving, and they need to hold Lock to under 250 yards passing in this game.
Ready for the real eye opener... Lock is only averaging 206 yards per game vs. SEC opponents. 4/6 of those teams allow less passing yards than the Tennessee defense, but given our recent improvement, I think we nail this and hold him below 250. Key Point: Mizzou, below 250 yards passing.
2. Attack the Sky: Missouri, on the other hand is a stale 118th nationally in passing yards yielded, giving up a tasty 278. JG and the Tennessee wide receivers should be licking their chops as they are about to face the worst pass defense they have seen since the OL began to turn the corner. Jarrett did a great job feeling pressure and stepping up into the pocket on Saturday. It was actually shocking to see, having forgotten what it looks like for that to actually happen, and I expected some Dobbs like scrambles for 38 yards, but he planted and found open WR's. Perfect. We need JG to continue to be sharp, not let the INT bubble pop, and to out pass Drew Lock. In week 3, those last words were laughable. This week, they are attainable. Mizzou is 97th in the country in sacks, only averaging 1.7 sacks per game. JG needs to stay clean, feel the pressure, and hit the target, all afternoon long. Key Point: Above 250 yards passing.
3. Move Forward: One of the struggles of the Tennessee offense this year has been the insane amount of offensive plays that have resulted in a loss. Fortunately, the Vols are improving here, and at just the right time. Mizzou is 84th in the nation in this category, only managing 5.4 TFL per game. The Vols need to keep the chains moving. The Tigers are 30th in the nation in rushing defense (yards per game) but it's a little misleading. Their pass defense is so bad, teams exploit the weakness. A closer look reveals they give up 3.92 yards per carry. Hardly juggernauts. Like everyone before them, Tennessee will attack through the air, but the running game needs to be efficient enough to keep the defense honest and they need to keep falling forward, not backwards. Key Point: Reduce negative plays, establish some running game.
4. Dooley vs. Pruitt: This is just an interesting coordinator match-up between Tennessee's current head coach, and it's former head coach. In spite of being a lousy head coach, Dooley is a pretty smart dude, and he's not been bad as an OC for Mizzou. However, Pruitt is renowned for being one of the top defensive minds in college football. It will be fascinating to see how each of these coaches make counter adjustments to one another and who gets the edge. As for me, I'm taking the guy still wearing orange.
5. Stop the Run: Another key component which I'm not going to detail is the need to sidetrack the Mizzou running game. Their top backs hit around 5 yards per carry, which is really impressive, and the DL needs to keep that locked down.
Prediction: The dreaded 3:30 CBS time slot awaits us. I can already hear the announcers flabbergasted at how Tennessee can't seem to get out of their own way, but that's the echo of memories past. On this Saturday, I like how Tennessee matches up. I didn't like it two months ago, but I'm really digging it 'round mid-November. I think Tennessee is able to create enough stops in the Mizzou passing game and the Tennessee WR's are too much to handle downfield. The Mizzou DL can't get to JG enough to cause problems and the running game does enough. The runningbacks are involved in the passing game and Helton continues to sharpen his craft. Folks are surprised, but Tennessee fans walk away happy, bowl eligibility secured.
TN 34
Mizzou 24
