nicksjuzunk
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The Vols make their first road trip to the booming metropolis of Gainesville, Florida this week. Since the Oklahoma game went impotent in the second half, this is the next opportunity for Butch to show the fanbase that he is able to win a "big" game for Tennessee. Although Florida is not the juggernaut of old, they have won 10 straight, and this game is HUGE for the fanbase.
Keys to Victory
1. Drain the Swamp: The Swamp is not quite the intimidating fortress it was when Spurrier and Urban were running the show. The mediocrity of the last few years has expectations lower, and the fanbase is not as excited as they were when NC appearances were the expectation. The Vols need to come in and take care of business, keeping the crowd out of the game.
2. Make the Game Small: Personal experience, and I think the experience of the team, shows that when you try to feel the full "bigness" of a moment in sports, you don't usually perform better, but worse. Kickers overthink, quarterbacks over throw, and the nerves basically sabotage the whole thing. The Vols need to go in, not thinking about the streak, or the first SEC game, or validating their coach. They need to go in and simply play one snap at a time. If they do that, they can experience the bigness of the game afterwards, and prove all of those points they should try to ignore as a result of ignoring them beforehand. Getting away from Neyland may be easier for them in this case.
3. Key to the D: Although I have predicted this to be a near certain win for months, it is by no means assured. Florida matches up surprisingly well against our offense. The run defense may be very good (their nice stats could be based on two terrible opponents and a predominately pass oriented team), and the pass defense is good as well. As we know, Oklahoma blew our offense up by blitzing and locking down the run. The secondary was good enough to take care of their business, and as a result, we did nothing for 2 quarters.
The old stat says the team that rushes for the most in this game wins. It will be the case here again. Florida will stack the box early, daring us to pass to win. If we cannot implement the mid-range passing game (hope withheld on the vertical game) than Hurd and Kamara are going to have a hard time getting their lunch. Dobbs will be on the run often, and it needs to be for positive yards. The coaches need to plan for more designed runs to keep the defense off balance. QB draw has the potential to kill.
3. 3rd Down Defense: Florida has been atrocious on 3rd down conversions. Their first game, they hardly had an opponent, so looking at their following two games... 2-11 against Kentucky, and 4-13 against ECU. 25% is not that swell. The Tennessee defense is the best they will have faced yet... by far. If they can stifle the first two downs and simply hold them at the 25%, they will be in a really good place to win. A tired defense that gets no time to rest is a bonus.
4. Trevor, the Destroyer: Opinions may vary, but I'm a big David Leaverton fan. He always seemed to be able to drop it within the 5 yard line. The ball would just stop and die, take a bounce out of bounds... it was uncanny. Trevor Daniel has proven to be such a weapon in these first 3 games. 4th nationally, at 47.6 yards per kick, his leg is going to be key in a game that should see a lot of punts... hopefully, more coming from Florida than us.
Florida punter Johnny Townsend (former Vol commit, IIRC) is averaging 41.4. When you are swapping 10 kicks back and forth, that theoretically works out to about an extra 60 yards, which is what's known as "flipping the field." You can lump special teams in this category as well. Our outstanding performance has been against lesser opponents. I'd love to see some big returns this week as well.
5. Turn Ye not the Ball Over: Last season, the game turned on turnovers, and this year has the same potential. If the Vols take care of the ball, they should win... period. If they do not, they could find themselves in a heap of trouble, despite outplaying the Gators. Will Grier, who has passed for an average of 147 per game is going to have to be sharp, or the secondary will get some pigskin.
6. Stuff the Run: As mentioned before, the leading rushing team almost always wins this game. The Gators are simply not good on the ground. However, they do have the Vols kryptonite... a slippery QB. Will Grier almost leads the team in rushing, with a scrappy 114 yards from 3 games. Tennessee should be able to get to the QB, with the Florida OL being a team weakness, but they have to stop nibbling at the ankles, and finish the play... back-up quarterback fears or not.
Florida only rushed for 120 yards against Kentucky. They will have to do better than that against Tennessee... and they may not.
Prediction: I think Tennessee comes out and fires well on offense, and Florida struggles. The Vols lead 10-0, thanks to game week adjustments in the passing game to neutralize the blitz, and then things get rough for a little while. Tennessee outperforms Florida, but leaves points on the board... still doesn't matter.
TN 24
FL 13
Keys to Victory
1. Drain the Swamp: The Swamp is not quite the intimidating fortress it was when Spurrier and Urban were running the show. The mediocrity of the last few years has expectations lower, and the fanbase is not as excited as they were when NC appearances were the expectation. The Vols need to come in and take care of business, keeping the crowd out of the game.
2. Make the Game Small: Personal experience, and I think the experience of the team, shows that when you try to feel the full "bigness" of a moment in sports, you don't usually perform better, but worse. Kickers overthink, quarterbacks over throw, and the nerves basically sabotage the whole thing. The Vols need to go in, not thinking about the streak, or the first SEC game, or validating their coach. They need to go in and simply play one snap at a time. If they do that, they can experience the bigness of the game afterwards, and prove all of those points they should try to ignore as a result of ignoring them beforehand. Getting away from Neyland may be easier for them in this case.
3. Key to the D: Although I have predicted this to be a near certain win for months, it is by no means assured. Florida matches up surprisingly well against our offense. The run defense may be very good (their nice stats could be based on two terrible opponents and a predominately pass oriented team), and the pass defense is good as well. As we know, Oklahoma blew our offense up by blitzing and locking down the run. The secondary was good enough to take care of their business, and as a result, we did nothing for 2 quarters.
The old stat says the team that rushes for the most in this game wins. It will be the case here again. Florida will stack the box early, daring us to pass to win. If we cannot implement the mid-range passing game (hope withheld on the vertical game) than Hurd and Kamara are going to have a hard time getting their lunch. Dobbs will be on the run often, and it needs to be for positive yards. The coaches need to plan for more designed runs to keep the defense off balance. QB draw has the potential to kill.
3. 3rd Down Defense: Florida has been atrocious on 3rd down conversions. Their first game, they hardly had an opponent, so looking at their following two games... 2-11 against Kentucky, and 4-13 against ECU. 25% is not that swell. The Tennessee defense is the best they will have faced yet... by far. If they can stifle the first two downs and simply hold them at the 25%, they will be in a really good place to win. A tired defense that gets no time to rest is a bonus.
4. Trevor, the Destroyer: Opinions may vary, but I'm a big David Leaverton fan. He always seemed to be able to drop it within the 5 yard line. The ball would just stop and die, take a bounce out of bounds... it was uncanny. Trevor Daniel has proven to be such a weapon in these first 3 games. 4th nationally, at 47.6 yards per kick, his leg is going to be key in a game that should see a lot of punts... hopefully, more coming from Florida than us.
Florida punter Johnny Townsend (former Vol commit, IIRC) is averaging 41.4. When you are swapping 10 kicks back and forth, that theoretically works out to about an extra 60 yards, which is what's known as "flipping the field." You can lump special teams in this category as well. Our outstanding performance has been against lesser opponents. I'd love to see some big returns this week as well. 5. Turn Ye not the Ball Over: Last season, the game turned on turnovers, and this year has the same potential. If the Vols take care of the ball, they should win... period. If they do not, they could find themselves in a heap of trouble, despite outplaying the Gators. Will Grier, who has passed for an average of 147 per game is going to have to be sharp, or the secondary will get some pigskin.
6. Stuff the Run: As mentioned before, the leading rushing team almost always wins this game. The Gators are simply not good on the ground. However, they do have the Vols kryptonite... a slippery QB. Will Grier almost leads the team in rushing, with a scrappy 114 yards from 3 games. Tennessee should be able to get to the QB, with the Florida OL being a team weakness, but they have to stop nibbling at the ankles, and finish the play... back-up quarterback fears or not.
Florida only rushed for 120 yards against Kentucky. They will have to do better than that against Tennessee... and they may not.
Prediction: I think Tennessee comes out and fires well on offense, and Florida struggles. The Vols lead 10-0, thanks to game week adjustments in the passing game to neutralize the blitz, and then things get rough for a little while. Tennessee outperforms Florida, but leaves points on the board... still doesn't matter.
TN 24
FL 13
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