I’m firmly in the marginal improvement category this year.
Both OL & DL are not equipped to win and a QB injury would derail everything
7 wins and I’m happy and ready to talk 2020
SOS = Strength of schedule, TOM = Turnover margin for game, OLINE = Adjusted line yards from Football Outsiders, TQBR = ESPN QB Rating for #! QB, PR = NCAA Passer Rating for #1 QB, RO = Rushing Offense, PO = Passing Offense, TO = Total Offense, SO = Scoring Offense, DLINE = Adjusted line yards from Football Outsiders, RD = Rushing Defense, PD = Passing Defense, DPR = Defensive NCAA Passer Rating, TD = Total Defense, SD = Scoring Defense, AVG = Average of the 13 National Rankings.
I agree we need the most improvement on both sides of the line of scrimmage and given the rankings for our lines last year I expect more than marginal improvement.
Having said that, I think we might agree that the metrics used by Football Outsiders may tend to mask deficiencies in other areas of our units on both sides of the ball. For example, if our quarterback is prone to “holding the ball too long” and taking sacks this metric is going to penalize the offensive line. A similar argument might be made based on the quality of our running backs. Dropped passes by receivers and tight ends will also penalize the offensive line in this metric because those dropped passes take away from otherwise positive production. Poor play-calling may also contribute to negative consequences when looking at this performance metric for our offensive line.
On the other side of the ball the defensive line is going to be penalized by the metric published by Football Outsiders for the quality of play of both the linebackers, who are arguably the primary playmakers in the front seven of our defense, and the secondary players. As with the other side of the ball, I think it’s also possible that poor play-calling on the defensive side of the ball can adversely affect this performance metric.
We are often reminded that football is a TEAM sport and that it takes all 11 guys on that side of the ball to make that unit productive. I think our biggest opportunity and our biggest challenge is to have some measure of improvement from each and every position on the field. It is not unreasonable, in my opinion, to expect that the additive effect of all that individual improvement, especially given the perceived quality of our teachers, should lead to a SIGNIFICANT improvement of the overall product we put on the field this year.
The way I’m looking at this is Butch Jones won 7 games (including the bowl win) with his first full recruiting class and that was with a lot of Dooley’s players augmented with a bunch of freshmen. We probably also should have beat Florida that year but our coach pulled a Butch Jones. At the time we were informed that we had the best staff in America. Granted, Georgia will be tougher this year than they were in 2014 so we may lose by more than 3 this year. Florida, I’m not sold given the state of their offensive line and key losses on defense. Mississippi State, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt lost key players. We get South Carolina at home and BYU doesn’t have a Will Grier. Alabama is Alabama.
At least some of us believe it’s possible we do in fact likely have a better staff than what we had in 2014. This is year two for Pruitt; I expect a remarkable turnaround in our football team this year, else the temptation for a lot of people to suspect that it is groundhog day all over again is probably going to rear its ugly head and not only with fans, but with potential recruits as well.
I hope we can win at least 9, maybe 10 games this year. If we can pull that off the road ahead gets a hell of a lot easier. jmo.
You looking forward to the hell known as summertime out there in the Valley of the sun?
