Recruiting Forum Football Talk IV

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BigOrangeTrain

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All per CBS article and which service used not defined.

There are a lower percentage of 3 stars each year yes, but look at how many DID compete at a level to get drafted in the first round. Look at the detail to see where they came from. Lots of P5 and G5, the 3 star category needs to be tweeked to accomodate those identifified by the big boys to be players. Of course the detail below shows even bigger misses when they were ranked in the 2k and 3k range or not ranked at all. The three star grouping is just too flawed to take to serious. Lots of the no-brainers in there too....

  • 5-stars: 8 USUALLY 25-30 PER YEAR
  • 4-stars: 12 USUALLY 250-300 PER YEAR
  • 3-stars: 9 USUALLY 700+ PER YEAR
  • 2-stars: 1
  • 1-star: 0
  • Unranked: 2
Here is the detail to back it up....

NFL TEAM
PLAYER
SCHOOL STARS RANK (YEAR)
Jacksonville
Travon Walker Georgia 5 22 (2019)
Detroit
Aiden Hutchinson Michigan 4 112 (2018)
Houston
Derek Stingley Jr.LSU 5 3 (2019)
N.Y. Jets
Ahmad Gardner Cincinnati 3 1,672 (2019)
N.Y. Giants
Kayvon Thibodeaux Oregon 5 2 (2019)
Carolina
Ikem Ekwonu NC State 3 612 (2019)
N.Y. Giants
Evan Neal Alabama 5 7 (2019)
Atlanta
Drake London USC 4 247 (2019)
Seattle
Charles Cross Mississippi State 5 27 (2019)
N.Y. Jets
Garrett Wilson Ohio State 5 20 (2019)
New Orleans
Chris Olave Ohio State 3 399 (2018)
Detroit
Jameson Williams Alabama 4 82 (2019)
Philadelphia
Jordan Davis Georgia 3 424 (2018)
Baltimore
Kyle HamiltonNotre Dame 460 (2019)
Houston
Kenyon Green Texas A&M 5 15 (2019)
Washington
Jahan Dotson Penn State 4 192 (2018)
L.A. Chargers
Zion Johnson Boston College n/a n/a (2016)
Tennessee
Treylon Burks Arkansas 4 103 (2019)
New Orleans
Trevor Penning Northern Iowa n/a n/a (2017)
Pittsburgh
Kenny Pickett Pittsburgh 3 738 (2016)
Kansas City
Trent McDuffie Washington 4 126 (2019)
Green Bay
Quay Walker Georgia 4 31 (2018)
Buffalo
Kaiir Elam Florida 4 48 (2019)
Dallas
Tyler Smith Tulsa 3 2,417 (2019)
Baltimore
Tyler Linderbaum Iowa 3 409 (2018)
N.Y. Jets
Jermaine Johnson Florida State 3 2,089 (2017)
Jacksonville
Devin Lloyd Utah 3 1,631 (2017)
Green Bay
Devonte Wyatt Georgia 4 278 (2017)
New England
Cole Strange Chattanooga 2 3,084 (2016)
Kansas City
George Karlaftis Purdue 4 59 (2019)
Cincinnati
Daxton Hill Michigan 5 14 (2019)
Minnesota
Lewis Cine Georgia 4 45 (2019)
The NFL is irrelevant when discussing star ratings out of high school.
 
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avolation

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No. I'm saying that talent rather than "stars" has been critical. "Stars" are coincidental or correlate with winning.... but Saban would still sign lots of talent if those recruiting sites did not exist. Signing talent was just as big before the recruiting sites existed.
Talent can be thought of as something underlying, such as a construct. In this scenario, stars would be the subjective measurement of talent. College stats would be an objective measure of talent. Saying that talent and not stars is critical is an argument of semantics. Ideally we would throw several of these a priori variables into a factor analysis to see which ones hung together to make up the “talent” construct and which ones weren’t related. Then we could use “talent” to predict wins. But unless someone wants to do that, let’s keep arguing about the differences in talent and stars.





That’ll be 9.95.
 

BigOrangeTrain

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No. I'm saying that talent rather than "stars" has been critical. "Stars" are coincidental or correlate with winning.... but Saban would still sign lots of talent if those recruiting sites did not exist. Signing talent was just as big before the recruiting sites existed.
But the services DO exist. Essentially the stats system measures talent. Of course they are going to miss. The law of averages says that will happen. But can you not see it? Yes Saban is excellent at evaluating talent. Don’t you find it odd that year in and year out that the talent he evaluates just so happens to be mainly highly ranked 4* and 5* players?
 

Exiled

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But the services DO exist. Essentially the stats system measures talent. Of course they are going to miss. The law of averages says that will happen. But can you not see it? Yes Saban is excellent at evaluating talent. Don’t you find it odd that year in and year out that the talent he evaluates just so happens to be mainly highly ranked 4* and 5* players?
Or he starts looking at a fallback 3 star that magically becomes a 4 star
 

GUNTERSVOL

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No. I'm saying that talent rather than "stars" has been critical. "Stars" are coincidental or correlate with winning.... but Saban would still sign lots of talent if those recruiting sites did not exist. Signing talent was just as big before the recruiting sites existed.
YEP... this is CLEARLY backed up by looking at the first round data I Provided and finding that Georgia indeed had some 5 star and 4 star talent in the first round AND AND AND a 3 star ALSO in the first round. Ohio State had a 3 star in the first round. They did not avoid taking talent because of the ratings. How many 3 stars have been bumped up after being accepted by the power brokers? I am hoping to cut down on the star gazers discontent that several of our guys get reevaluated and bumped up too. The services do not have the man power to match the evaluation hours that all the D1 programs can put on the job nor access to all the reps at camps. It is easier to take the OBVIOUS creme off the top as 5's and high 4's.... not so easy from there down thus you see lots of the 3's and low 4's drafted with masses of mid 4's still on the board.
 

Ashevillevol

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Give me Mike Keith all day long. It was going to be his job before the titans came calling. I think he would do great. He understands Tennessee and it’s fans, he is a passionate Vol as well. GBO!
I believe radio voice of the Gators was also voice of the Bucs until he retired this spring after 30+ years. Pay him a ton and let him do both.
 

Orange_Crush

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The data still stands. The teams that have won national titles since 1998 have have higher rated classes than others. You will never see a team loaded with 3 stars win a natty. Not gonna happen.....never have since the BCS era.
Auburn's last Nattie == 2010

They had 54 three stars on that team. That's a load of them.


Clemson Nattie == 2016

2012 class == 11-3 stars and 9-4 stars
2013 class == 10-3 stars and 10-4stars
2014 class == 12-3 stars, 7-4 stars and 1-5 star
2015 class == 10=3 stars, 9-4 stars and 3-5 stars.

For a grand total of 43 three stars, 35 four stars and 4 five stars.

That team was loaded with three stars.
 
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