The table below shows Bill Connelly’s returning production rankings for teams on our schedule for ’21. I also included a column for where the team’s ’21 recruiting class ended up according to 247.
So both Florida and Alabama lost more of their offenses that we did. Georgia lost more of its defense that we did. Some of our losses might be considered addition by subtraction but only we might know about that. Jake Bentley transferred from Utah to South Alabama so probably a good possibility he’ll be their QB this year.
Normally we assume that returning production for Alabama is mostly irrelevant because given their level of recruiting they just reload. Well, I went back and checked Heupel’s performance given his returning production. In 2016 his offensive returning production at MO was ranked #71 and he was projected to increase their scoring by 0.6 points per game. He actually increased their scoring 17.8 points per game in 2016. In 2017 MO’s offensive returning production was ranked at #10 with a projected scoring increase of 3.2 points per game. The offense actually increased its scoring production by 6.1 points per game.
In 2018 he inherited the UCF team with an offensive returning production rank of #50 and put up 43.2 points per game. In 2019 his returning production numbers for the offense fell to a ranking of #96 but there was no drop off in scoring output, finishing at 43.4 points per game for the year. In 2020 his offensive returning production was ranked #38 and he finished the year with a scoring average of 42.2 points per game.
I think it’s fair to expect we’re going to score a lot more points this year than in the recent past. We may score a lot of them against Tennessee Tech, South Alabama, Bowling Green, etc., but we’re almost certainly going to be scoring points.
On defense I think our real losses are Bryce and HT. Fill those holes and I think we’re good. I wanted faster edge rushers than Bennett and Johnson for what seems like forever. We have them; we just need to get them ready. I think our backend should be good, obviously more experience overall, and our front four should be the strength of the defense in my view, which in our new scheme is what I think we need. We need to figure out the LBs and our D should be good. jmo.
So we have a huge upgrade at QB and hyped talent in the WR corp. I don’t think we have to worry about the offensive line. Heupel has proved he knows how to protect the QB and to get his RBs past the LOS. We have to see which guys emerge as ball carriers and who and how we use the TE position. Heupel used the TE position more at MO (both years) and his first year at UCF than he has the past couple years at UCF. It probably has a lot to do with who you have at TE. Regardless of TE availability , it hasn’t slowed down his offense. jmo.
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