Recruiting Forum Football Talk III

[jaybird_1981]

I mentioned earlier that I’d dive a bit into the stats behind Heupel’s tenure at UCF. If y’all want to talk more about numbers/methodologies we can do that, but I wanted to give a overview tonight.

Over the past couple years, I’ve tweaked a rating system I’ve made to evaluate coaches based on two criteria:

1. Overall performance. Better coaches generally have better teams. Obvious enough.

2. Performance relative to talent on the roster. We can talk for days about the state of development, but raw talent is something we can account for, via 247’s composite. Basically, more talent leads to a higher expectation of performance, and I want to see what coaches outperform their expected values the most.

To measure performance, I’m not going with wins and losses, but ESPN’s efficiency metrics. These are adjusted for SOS and pace, so we can avoid all the “they ain’t played nobody” and total-offense pitfalls. These metrics should tell us just how “good” the team was that year.

After evaluating performance and measuring against what they should’ve done according to their talent level, I’ve placed the values on a classic school grading scale. Saban gets a solid 100/A+, guys like Herman/Doeren are in the C+ range, and Pruitt comes in at a D+.

So now, based on the years 2015+, here are the results. I’ll list a few candidates here.

Freeze
Overall: 80
Offense: 87
Defense: 72

Herman
Overall: 79
Offense: 76
Defense: 80

Fleck
Overall: 78
Offense: 81
Defense: 71

Napier
Overall: 78
Offense: 86
Defense: 66

Chadwell
Overall: 74
Offense: 78
Defense: 67

Kiffin
Overall: 74
Offense: 81
Defense: 65

Dykes
Overall: 73
Offense: 80
Defense: 66

Leipold
Overall: 70
Offense: 72
Defense: 70

Healy
Overall: 58
Offense: 71
Defense: 50

Heupel
Overall: 88
Offense: 91
Defense: 76

Frankly, that offense is a machine, and it’s a consistent machine. Every year graded better than Kiffin’s best at FAU, without the drawback of the 2 that were barely meeting (or slightly failing) talent expectations.

Heupel’s overall profile of results vs. expectations is actually right there with Gundy/Wittingham, and his offensive grade is above the likes of Gundy/Mack Brown/Freeze/Petersen.

I’ve said it earlier, his recruiting and program building is a massive unknown, but this guy is no Sonny Dykes on the field.

Enjoy, and hit me up with any requests, data, questions if you’re interested.

What are the scores of Dabo, Day & Riley?

 

[UTfan94]

 

[Volwark]

Tomlin is the John Harbaugh of this search

 

[jakez4ut]

Nobody annointed him savior. People slamming him like he is a garbage coach is the only extreme reaction I am seeing from the fanbase. Given the circumstances we are in and the way football is an offensive game now I don't see many better options available if everyone is slamming their doors to $8M

We didn't offer everyone $8m, but your overall point is correct. Situation and circumstances dictated all this... Assuming it is JH, That is.

It's just not very attractive right now. And it doesn't take our belief to be true...

If JH is the guy.. Prolly need to focus on how he can succeed... Understanding this is gonna be a bumpy ride for the time being.

 

[KeyVol14]

We haven’t even announced that we’re going to hire heupel but since AP and Hubbs said he’s emerging that now it’s a forgone conclusion. These are the same people that ran with saying Elliot was the leading candidate all week.

 

[Sleegro]

Rooney family takes care of their coaches. Only had 2 in like 20 years?...

They've only had 3 head coaches since 1969. THREE. In 51 years.





Was gonna say in 52 years but sounds like they need a new one next year after we poach Tomlin tomorrow.

 

[johnfnkelly]

We haven’t even announced Huepel and it’s a forgone conclusion now

We’ve moved on from JH. Tomlin’s our new HC till the next insider suggests otherwise.

 

[volfanCLT]

This is the most Tennessee thing of all time.

Honestly, how did we not see this coming?

 

[MIT_Beaver]

Yes, I will need the liquor if we actually hired Heupel but I highly highly doubt that happens. Very common technique is to anchor down to make it seem the deal you actually get is better than the reality. The floor must be Fisher, any lower and UT deserves everything they get from the fan base.

Looks like Mr. Price is already back tracking. Who ever is attempting to anchor down the fan base expectations needs to understand it won’t work. Thankfully, Fisher has publicly stated he wants the job and therefore represents the floor. Anything lower is untenable.

 

[MIT_Beaver]

Fake insider

Yeah except all of the people that said Batman was our coach are now back tracking.

 

[jpope9]

I leave for one hour and now Tomlin is coming? Never change volnation!

 

[Sleegro]

I brought it in here, a random in the FF, said they had a player come into the ER where they work and said there was a sitting NFL coach approached. Myself and another poster in there came up with Tomlin and Op said that was who it was.

But does he have p5 hc experience?

 

[theutvolunteers]

We haven’t even announced Huepel and it’s a forgone conclusion now

The lack of additional media reporting it is odd.

 

[MIT_Beaver]

Dude, stop you didn't help last time and you certainly aren't helping this time

Except I am right.

 

[Lane Train 4]

What are the odds White is just working on getting Heupel a rase at UCF by leaking this?

 

[jakez4ut]

This is the most Tennessee thing of all time.

Honestly, how did we not see this coming?

 

[mr.checkerboards]

What are the odds White is just working on getting Heupel a rase at UCF by leaking this?

Somebody has to play Gundy's part

 

[InstrumentalVol]

The lack of additional media reporting it is odd.

Thats the only thing that has me puzzled. You would think Thamel, Feldman and Low would be working vigorously to confirm the reports.

 

[theutvolunteers]

Thats the only thing that has me puzzled. You would think Thamel, Feldman and Low would be working vigorously to confirm the reports.

Usually one person breaks it, and then it’s an immediate domino effect.

 

[UTfan94]

No disrespect to AV but this is funny.

 

[Sleegro]

I am not expecting much this year no matter who we hire.

But what if it's Tomlin?



Jk but really what would his expected year 1 record be?

 

[pismonque]

Looks like Mr. Price is already back tracking. Who ever is attempting to anchor down the fan base expectations needs to understand it won’t work. Thankfully, Fisher has publicly stated he wants the job and therefore represents the floor. Anything lower is untenable.

Yes, AP will back off long enough to let everyone start to come to their senses, then he’ll report that Heupel turned us down and now all signs are pointing to Coach Rando McArbitrary, and a new wave of rioting begins.

And AP will turn and hide a smile. It’s the most godlike he’s felt since he was a kid torturing ant colonies for laughs.

Someday we’ll tell the tale of the great VN riots of the past few days and we’ll marvel over the tidal forces exerted on a sea of fans by a moonish reporter with a chapped far side.

We should call this event the Price’s Riots.

 

[volfanCLT]

What are the odds White is just working on getting Heupel a rase at UCF by leaking this?

Probably pretty slim considering he was Heupel’s boss 3 days ago and could have given him a raise then.

 

[Sleegro]

We're hearing more and more that Mike Tomlin is working out contract details.

-AP prolly

 

[theutvolunteers]

But what if it's Tomlin?



Jk but really what would his expected year 1 record be?

6-6 ish. Year two is when most of the truly elite coaches make a massive jump.