Recruiting Forum Football Talk III

ChattaTNVol

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I think yesterday Kingston reported to us that Heupel was unhappy with the QBs –

Clearly that’s not something we want to hear but I’m making it a practice this time around to investigate these sorts of unpleasant reports and not just go with the knee jerk dismissal,, regardless of the source. That said, I think most will agree that obviously, Kingston hates us. jmo.

Heupel has a unique offensive system and this post is not really about that. His former QB, though, at UCF, Dillon Gabriel, was put forward as perhaps a model for what we might need as a QB with Heupel now here at Tennessee. I pointed out that Gabriel had never beat a top 40 defense and that his passer rating against top 40 defenses was abysmal. He has had 5 such games in the last 2 years at UCF and lost all 5.

So rather than break down Heupel’s offense and share some of the less favorable critiques of that offense I thought it might be a more POSITIVE exercise to see how many top 40 defenses we might face this year. While I don’t anticipate widespread agreement I’m expecting we may have a top 40 defense ourselves this year and the idea that Heupel may not be happy with our QBs after 6 practices would support my theory that Tim Banks, Rodney Garner, Willie Martinez, and their guys are already kicking Heupel’s butt and that may be the true source of his unhappiness. jmo.

I know, the first reaction many are probably having is, us? A top 40 defense this year? How old are you?

Our defensive line last year was ranked by Football Outsiders as 45th best in the nation. For reference, Ole Miss’s defensive line last year was ranked #116. I think we have some really good guys up front and most have played a lot of football. We’re not running Pruitt’s defense anymore. With Pruitt the production load was placed on the linebackers. I think with Banks that shifts to the defensive line. jmo.

Here is a profile of the 3 levels of our defense over the years. I think 2011 and 2015 would be a good example of what I expect from our defensive line this year. Note: if the DBs have the longest production bars that suggests to me that the opposing offense is often getting to the 3rd level and that correlates to us having a bad defense that year. jmo.

ScreenHunter 731.png


In trying to project who on our schedule might have a top 40 defense this year I looked at recent history and I looked at who teams lost from last year. Pitt loses the most, including 2 NFL bound defensive linemen. Missouri is starting over with a new DC and 2 new position coaches on that side of the ball. I think UK may be trending down on defense. jmo.

ScreenHunter 733.png

Assuming it's not the QB and the problem is the offense itself then I'm estimating 9 of the teams on our schedule will be below the top 40 for defense this year. In the last 2 years Heupel's offense has a 88.9% winning rate against defenses not in the top 40 which suggests Hank's assessment that this is an 8 win team this year is dead on. jmo.
 

rekinhavoc

Respect the Hemi! No Interviews.
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So I just found where my wife hid a Reese’s egg in the fridge.

Should I:
  1. Eat it.
  2. Leave a love and/or ransom note beside it.
  3. Swap it out for inferior chocolate.
  4. Cut off the corner of the package like David did to King Saul from the cave.
Other suggestions welcome.
Eat it. Put empty wrapper in her purse.
 

Glocker_Alum_2005

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I think yesterday Kingston reported to us that Heupel was unhappy with the QBs –

Clearly that’s not something we want to hear but I’m making it a practice this time around to investigate these sorts of unpleasant reports and not just go with the knee jerk dismissal,, regardless of the source. That said, I think most will agree that obviously, Kingston hates us. jmo.

Heupel has a unique offensive system and this post is not really about that. His former QB, though, at UCF, Dillon Gabriel, was put forward as perhaps a model for what we might need as a QB with Heupel now here at Tennessee. I pointed out that Gabriel had never beat a top 40 defense and that his passer rating against top 40 defenses was abysmal. He has had 5 such games in the last 2 years at UCF and lost all 5.

So rather than break down Heupel’s offense and share some of the less favorable critiques of that offense I thought it might be a more POSITIVE exercise to see how many top 40 defenses we might face this year. While I don’t anticipate widespread agreement I’m expecting we may have a top 40 defense ourselves this year and the idea that Heupel may not be happy with our QBs after 6 practices would support my theory that Tim Banks, Rodney Garner, Willie Martinez, and their guys are already kicking Heupel’s butt and that may be the true source of his unhappiness. jmo.

I know, the first reaction many are probably having is, us? A top 40 defense this year? How old are you?

Our defensive line last year was ranked by Football Outsiders as 45th best in the nation. For reference, Ole Miss’s defensive line last year was ranked #116. I think we have some really good guys up front and most have played a lot of football. We’re not running Pruitt’s defense anymore. With Pruitt the production load was placed on the linebackers. I think with Banks that shifts to the defensive line. jmo.

Here is a profile of the 3 levels of our defense over the years. I think 2011 and 2015 would be a good example of what I expect from our defensive line this year. Note: if the DBs have the longest production bars that suggests to me that the opposing offense is often getting to the 3rd level and that correlates to us having a bad defense that year. jmo.

View attachment 361222


In trying to project who on our schedule might have a top 40 defense this year I looked at recent history and I looked at who teams lost from last year. Pitt loses the most, including 2 NFL bound defensive linemen. Missouri is starting over with a new DC and 2 new position coaches on that side of the ball. I think UK may be trending down on defense. jmo.

View attachment 361223

Assuming it's not the QB and the problem is the offense itself then I'm estimating 9 of the teams on our schedule will be below the top 40 for defense this year. In the last 2 years Heupel's offense has a 88.9% winning rate against defenses not in the top 40 which suggests Hank's assessment that this is an 8 win team this year is dead on. jmo.
Great analysis. Football is more oten a fame of match ups. If you drilled down to pass efficiency and Yards per rush, how would we match up, if say this years O was 80% as effective as UCFs last year?
 
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VolsDoc81TX

Bleeding Orange since 1962
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This is weak...you dang well know what I meant. What are the millions upon millions of people still doing decent but not great paying jobs making, assembling and warehousing things going to do for money to buy the things the robots make when the great robopacalypse happens? That sounds like a disaster to me.
They will all start their own YouTube channels and become millionaires 😳

If that comes to pass, hopefully the most out of work people will be in China. That would be the only silver lining that I could think of. If it decreased the USA’s dependence on China and hurt their economy, that would be a win.
 

VolsDoc81TX

Bleeding Orange since 1962
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I think yesterday Kingston reported to us that Heupel was unhappy with the QBs –

Clearly that’s not something we want to hear but I’m making it a practice this time around to investigate these sorts of unpleasant reports and not just go with the knee jerk dismissal,, regardless of the source. That said, I think most will agree that obviously, Kingston hates us. jmo.

Heupel has a unique offensive system and this post is not really about that. His former QB, though, at UCF, Dillon Gabriel, was put forward as perhaps a model for what we might need as a QB with Heupel now here at Tennessee. I pointed out that Gabriel had never beat a top 40 defense and that his passer rating against top 40 defenses was abysmal. He has had 5 such games in the last 2 years at UCF and lost all 5.

So rather than break down Heupel’s offense and share some of the less favorable critiques of that offense I thought it might be a more POSITIVE exercise to see how many top 40 defenses we might face this year. While I don’t anticipate widespread agreement I’m expecting we may have a top 40 defense ourselves this year and the idea that Heupel may not be happy with our QBs after 6 practices would support my theory that Tim Banks, Rodney Garner, Willie Martinez, and their guys are already kicking Heupel’s butt and that may be the true source of his unhappiness. jmo.

I know, the first reaction many are probably having is, us? A top 40 defense this year? How old are you?

Our defensive line last year was ranked by Football Outsiders as 45th best in the nation. For reference, Ole Miss’s defensive line last year was ranked #116. I think we have some really good guys up front and most have played a lot of football. We’re not running Pruitt’s defense anymore. With Pruitt the production load was placed on the linebackers. I think with Banks that shifts to the defensive line. jmo.

Here is a profile of the 3 levels of our defense over the years. I think 2011 and 2015 would be a good example of what I expect from our defensive line this year. Note: if the DBs have the longest production bars that suggests to me that the opposing offense is often getting to the 3rd level and that correlates to us having a bad defense that year. jmo.

View attachment 361222


In trying to project who on our schedule might have a top 40 defense this year I looked at recent history and I looked at who teams lost from last year. Pitt loses the most, including 2 NFL bound defensive linemen. Missouri is starting over with a new DC and 2 new position coaches on that side of the ball. I think UK may be trending down on defense. jmo.

View attachment 361223

Assuming it's not the QB and the problem is the offense itself then I'm estimating 9 of the teams on our schedule will be below the top 40 for defense this year. In the last 2 years Heupel's offense has a 88.9% winning rate against defenses not in the top 40 which suggests Hank's assessment that this is an 8 win team this year is dead on. jmo.
Excellent thought process. I am actually glad that he isn’t happy with the QBs now. That means that there’s plenty of time to fix the issues whether it is actually the QBs or if the DC has figured out how to stop his offense. It might be that the defense is winning because the offense hasn’t reached Heupelspeed (light speed) yet. Either way, it’s correctable. Our dfense can help the O prepare for the SEC...
 

m1al

I'm the most wanted man on my island...
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One of my new favorite quotes:

Hey,
I am not looking for trouble.
If you are looking for trouble, then I got some.


I immediately thought of Butchna’s approach to VN posts. 😂
I think butchna's philosophy is more along the lines of "You're welcome to 'walk' over, but you're probably going to limp back...." 😎
 

drvenner

#LiftUpDrew
Joined
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Messages
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I think yesterday Kingston reported to us that Heupel was unhappy with the QBs –

Clearly that’s not something we want to hear but I’m making it a practice this time around to investigate these sorts of unpleasant reports and not just go with the knee jerk dismissal,, regardless of the source. That said, I think most will agree that obviously, Kingston hates us. jmo.

Heupel has a unique offensive system and this post is not really about that. His former QB, though, at UCF, Dillon Gabriel, was put forward as perhaps a model for what we might need as a QB with Heupel now here at Tennessee. I pointed out that Gabriel had never beat a top 40 defense and that his passer rating against top 40 defenses was abysmal. He has had 5 such games in the last 2 years at UCF and lost all 5.

So rather than break down Heupel’s offense and share some of the less favorable critiques of that offense I thought it might be a more POSITIVE exercise to see how many top 40 defenses we might face this year. While I don’t anticipate widespread agreement I’m expecting we may have a top 40 defense ourselves this year and the idea that Heupel may not be happy with our QBs after 6 practices would support my theory that Tim Banks, Rodney Garner, Willie Martinez, and their guys are already kicking Heupel’s butt and that may be the true source of his unhappiness. jmo.

I know, the first reaction many are probably having is, us? A top 40 defense this year? How old are you?

Our defensive line last year was ranked by Football Outsiders as 45th best in the nation. For reference, Ole Miss’s defensive line last year was ranked #116. I think we have some really good guys up front and most have played a lot of football. We’re not running Pruitt’s defense anymore. With Pruitt the production load was placed on the linebackers. I think with Banks that shifts to the defensive line. jmo.

Here is a profile of the 3 levels of our defense over the years. I think 2011 and 2015 would be a good example of what I expect from our defensive line this year. Note: if the DBs have the longest production bars that suggests to me that the opposing offense is often getting to the 3rd level and that correlates to us having a bad defense that year. jmo.

View attachment 361222


In trying to project who on our schedule might have a top 40 defense this year I looked at recent history and I looked at who teams lost from last year. Pitt loses the most, including 2 NFL bound defensive linemen. Missouri is starting over with a new DC and 2 new position coaches on that side of the ball. I think UK may be trending down on defense. jmo.

View attachment 361223

Assuming it's not the QB and the problem is the offense itself then I'm estimating 9 of the teams on our schedule will be below the top 40 for defense this year. In the last 2 years Heupel's offense has a 88.9% winning rate against defenses not in the top 40 which suggests Hank's assessment that this is an 8 win team this year is dead on. jmo.
I am very disappointed with your ranking of the BYE week defense. Totally skews all the numbers, JMO.
 

HoleInTheRoof

Mr. Congeniality
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33DB1D22-E472-4090-92DE-2F35505FEA49.jpeg
I remember this day!

This was back when ESPN was good. SportsCenter was gold. You could leave it on the TV all morning and just watch the SportsCenter repeats as all the hosts were entertaining and informative. They reported stories and showed highlights. Didn’t try and force stories or force hot take debates.

This was the first major free agent signing in the NFL and I loved that was Reggie White.

Sidebar: I’m getting old
 

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