I mentioned earlier that I’d dive a bit into the stats behind Heupel’s tenure at UCF. If y’all want to talk more about numbers/methodologies we can do that, but I wanted to give a overview tonight.
Over the past couple years, I’ve tweaked a rating system I’ve made to evaluate coaches based on two criteria:
1. Overall performance. Better coaches generally have better teams. Obvious enough.
2. Performance relative to talent on the roster. We can talk for days about the state of development, but raw talent is something we can account for, via 247’s composite. Basically, more talent leads to a higher expectation of performance, and I want to see what coaches outperform their expected values the most.
To measure performance, I’m not going with wins and losses, but ESPN’s efficiency metrics. These are adjusted for SOS and pace, so we can avoid all the “they ain’t played nobody” and total-offense pitfalls. These metrics should tell us just how “good” the team was that year.
After evaluating performance and measuring against what they should’ve done according to their talent level, I’ve placed the values on a classic school grading scale. Saban gets a solid 100/A+, guys like Herman/Doeren are in the C+ range, and Pruitt comes in at a D+.
So now, based on the years 2015+, here are the results. I’ll list a few candidates here.
Frankly, that offense is a machine, and it’s a consistent machine. Every year graded better than Kiffin’s best at FAU, without the drawback of the 2 that were barely meeting (or slightly failing) talent expectations.
Heupel’s overall profile of results vs. expectations is actually right there with Gundy/Wittingham, and his offensive grade is above the likes of Gundy/Mack Brown/Freeze/Petersen.
I’ve said it earlier, his recruiting and program building is a massive unknown, but this guy is no Sonny Dykes on the field.
Enjoy, and hit me up with any requests, data, questions if you’re interested.
After I’ve slept on it, I’m actually thrilled at the prospect of Bailey or Salter in a Heupel offense. We’ve had conservative offensive play calling for more than 8 years now. It’ll be nice to see us have a vertical passing game for once.
Thamel has said it. They’re talking it on Nashville radio. Heupel is the hire.
1. Like it or not, we had rumors and leaks that White fished in bigger waters and didn’t get a bite. I believe it. I believe the NCAA stuff + how our administration nuked Pruitt scared off almost everyone.
2. Remind yourself, there are more than 1 coach who can improve and win at TN. Heupel was NONE of our candidate du jours on VN, but there is a path to him winning here. Whether he finds it or not, time will tell.
3. White is not just here to make this one hire. He is here to clean up a PUTRID culture across the board with UT athletics. For all the “Fulmer could have made this hire” talk, you are really missing the big picture of what White is tasked with. It will be a process. This hire is not an indictment on his future effectiveness. It was him playing the hand he was dealt. An awful hand.
4. We will score a lot of points, which means you always have a shot.
5. At this point, every player / coach who stays in this mess and who chooses to come to this mess deserves our deepest appreciation and loyalty. Put your big boy/girl pants on, suck it up, remember what it means to be a Tennessean and a Volunteer, and rally.
I’m all in because we have hired him. I support the coach at UT until he gives me a reason not to.
I’m also optimistic. The dude is an offense genius and a fantastic QB coach. He’s proven that as both a coordinator and as a head coach. If he makes the right DC hire we could really have something here. That’s all I’ve said.