Devo182
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OU is #11 in their preseason ranking last I saw. Plus a road game. Almost a thousand miles to travel (-1 epa). They have also recruited very well recently. Better than they did leading up to our 14/15 matchups, for comparison. All to say, I think that prediction is fairly in line with their UF, UGA, Bama ones.
But I wonder if/when they will discount road games (to a degree). No fans has to take away a good bit of the home field advantage. There's still an advantage to being in a comfortable, familiar stadium and field, plus not having travel lag. But no fans should be a 50%+ discount on home field advantage jmo.
With their latest victory, a 30-7 triumph over the UAB Blazers on November 2, the Volunteers pulled to within two games of bowl eligibility. In order to qualify for the postseason for the first time since the 2016 season, Tennessee will need to come out on top in two of their three remaining games.
On Sunday, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) released their updated odds for those games:
Here’s a brief description of how FPI works:
- Nov. 9 at Kentucky (42.7-percent)
- Nov. 23 at Missouri (37.2-percent)
- Nov. 30 vs. Vanderbilt (87.2-percent)
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance moving forward. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using the FPI, results to date and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.While the FPI is projecting the Volunteers to fall one win short of a bowl game, the team has three chances left to exceed last season’s mark of 2-6 in SEC play.
Their first attempt to prove the FPI wrong, redshirt senior Jauan Jennings and the Volunteers will travel to Kroger Field to battle the Kentucky Wildcats (4-4) on Saturday at 7:30PM ET on the SEC Network.
It’s hard to believe anything being reported with all the misinformation the last few months. Reports of false positives, duplicated reporting, inconsistent test results, etc.... The virus is real but the severity and hysteria are a sham IMO.
Good points about Bill C. He is bringing granularity and specifics...that his addition hurts our prediction...I do not like. Insofar as I trust him more than ESPN.ESPN brought Bill Connelly and his S&P+ analysis approach into their tent last year. When they first issued the preseason FPI for this year they had us at #19 and Kentucky at #33 and South Carolina at #34.
Preseason college football FPI breakdown
Then they huddled up and came up with a new updated approach to producing their FPI:
Breaking down the updated 2020 FPI college football rankings
I'm excited about Eric Gray too. The thing is though that he rushed 101 times last year but 25 of those times were against the #115 nationally ranked run defense of Vanderbilt. That performance generated a lot of buzz but the other 76 rushes he had on the season netted around 3.86 yards per attempt.
So the new version of FPI is sort of trying to measure quality of performance. In the old version we got credit for having a returning quarterback. In the new version the FPI assumes that quarterback is likely Guarantano and based of his historical performance that's not likely to be considered that much of a positive, until he demonstrates otherwise. So essentially FPI now apparently goes into the weeds and looks at the individual players and their historical performance or based on new incoming talent, expected performance, instead of just looking at the position in a generic sense.
On this almost everyone seems to agree, we should have one of the best offensive lines not just in the conference but in the entire country. Many folks rightly believe that will help both our running game and our passing game, assuming we can field a sufficient number of SEC caliber receivers.
If we are 4-0 after the Florida game and look like a decent football team, perceptions, including FPI, of our quality as a football team will vastly improve. jmo.
Nitpick: We lost Callaway but gained Calloway.
Useful pages from Tennessee Department of Health.
tldr...COVID hospitalizations up about 25% in the last 2 weeks, but hospital resources are doing great.
Current COVID Hospitalizations
Hospital Capacity
I don’t really believe it is as bad as they are saying it isHospital ICU capacity, actual reports from the leaders in the healthcare systems and percentage of positive test results are not very debatable. Neither are deaths but those will lag. The problem Is real in Phoenix and Houston at this point. South FL and Austin are concerning. Positive Tests are double digit all the way to low 20s. By contrast, areas that were seeded earlier and took aggressive actions are low. As of two days ago Chicago was under 3%. NYC is low. Positive rates needs to be single digit. Don’t see how anyone could call it a sham.
Hospital ICU capacity, actual reports from the leaders in the healthcare systems and percentage of positive test results are not very debatable. Neither are deaths but those will lag. The problem Is real in Phoenix and Houston at this point. South FL and Austin are concerning. Positive Tests are double digit all the way to low 20s. By contrast, areas that were seeded earlier and took aggressive actions are low. As of two days ago Chicago was under 3%. NYC is low. Positive rates need to be single digit. Don’t see how anyone could call it a sham.
It might be fine in Tennessee right now. It is not fine in Arizona and some other states, and it is going in the wrong direction. They are beginning to discuss closing Arizona hospitals to elective procedures again. When they did this before, it was not necessary because there were very few cases in Arizona. Now, it is likely going to become necessary soon. 49% of total cases and 22.5% of hospitalizations in Arizona are now in the 20-44 age group. They had closed one hospital in Arizona during the last few years. They have been prepping that hospital since March to serve as a backup when the other hospitals reach their capacity. Also, PCR test results (active virus) in the state of Arizona have yielded 19% to 21% positive results for the last 3 weeks.Don’t believe the “hospital capacity” fear. It’s fine.
It might be fine in Tennessee right now. It is not fine in Arizona and some other states, and it is going in the wrong direction. They are beginning to discuss closing Arizona hospitals to elective procedures again. When they did this before, it was not necessary because there were very few cases in Arizona. Now, it is likely going to become necessary soon. 49% of total cases and 22.5% of hospitalizations in Arizona are now in the 20-44 age group. They had closed one hospital in Arizona during the last few years. They have been prepping that hospital since March to serve as a backup when the other hospitals reach their capacity. Also, PCR test results (active virus) in the state of Arizona have yielded 19% to 21% positive results for the last 3 weeks.
I work in healthcare...... 2 things I have seen..... one people have tested positive for months in a row without a single symptom..... two: some of these hospital numbers are misreported.... for example some hospital icus run between high 80-100 % capacity at all times.... the report will come out that icu is near capacity.... they fail to mention that it is always near capacity and less than 20% is covid patients.You aren’t alone. Not everything is subjective though.
It might be fine in Tennessee right now. It is not fine in Arizona and some other states, and it is going in the wrong direction. They are beginning to discuss closing Arizona hospitals to elective procedures again. When they did this before, it was not necessary because there were very few cases in Arizona. Now, it is likely going to become necessary soon. 49% of total cases and 22.5% of hospitalizations in Arizona are now in the 20-44 age group. They had closed one hospital in Arizona during the last few years. They have been prepping that hospital since March to serve as a backup when the other hospitals reach their capacity. Also, PCR test results (active virus) in the state of Arizona have yielded 19% to 21% positive results for the last 3 weeks.
Get this man a cookie and medal.Yea they also made sure every news outlet was available to photograph the beds they set up in Vanderbilt’s parking garage. Empty. USS COMFORT. Empty. Houston hospital rep said they always operate near capacity. That’s by design and they have no problem getting more beds. No problem. I’ve visited some ERs during March around Nashville. Empty. Fear fear fear. Old folks are dying because they’re stocking positives back in nursing homes. We’ve shown if needed we can, and did, flatten the curve. We knew this spike would happen. And we will be fine.
Yea they also made sure every news outlet was available to photograph the beds they set up in Vanderbilt’s parking garage. Empty. USS COMFORT. Empty. Houston hospital rep said they always operate near capacity. That’s by design and they have no problem getting more beds. No problem. I’ve visited some ERs during March around Nashville. Empty. Fear fear fear. Old folks are dying because they’re stocking positives back in nursing homes. We’ve shown if needed we can, and did, flatten the curve. We knew this spike would happen. And we will be fine.
I thought he was decent. Offensive system was poor. Luke Doty is another stud coming in for them. All said, a couple of young QBs + new OC + pandemic = lol.
So glad to have 2nd year Chaney and 5th year anybody at QB, plus a run game/monster OL to lean on. Experience and familiarity will win out this year. Young stud QBs and fancy complicated pass games will take a backseat for just one year.